This could be a banner year for the SEC in the NCAA tournament. Since the beginning of the season, there have been five teams that seemed like the upper half of the conference and likely to earn bids to the year-end tournament. Based on the RPI, there are at least three other teams that may make a run at postseason glory. The one thing that there is little doubt about: which team is currently on top. The top dogs are the Wildcats, so let's take a look at the SEC in four tiers: Kentucky, teams playing for seeding, the bubble teams, and the longshots.
Top Dog (er, Cat)
Other than a one-point loss at Indiana, the Kentucky Wildcats are continuing their annual run toward a top seed in the tournament. This year's squad features stud freshmen Anthony Davis and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist as well as sophomores Terrence Jones and Doron Lamb. The Wildcats' next five games should be fairly smooth (something I also expected of the schedule for Syracuse before they lost at Notre Dame on Saturday). The next big challenge on the schedule is a Feb. 11 date at Vanderbilt. They also have road games at Mississippi State and Florida to close the season. The team, like most college teams other than Orange, doesn't have much depth, so injuries could be a concern. Either way, they should be a top seed come tournament time.
Playing for Seeding
Prior to Saturday, it looked like the Vanderbilt Commodores were the clear second team in the conference. Their loss to the Mississippi State Bulldogs muddled things a bit. I'd put both of those teams a notch above the Florida Gators who have not beaten a quality opponent. Back to the Commodores, they struggled without their big man Festus Ezeli and lost four of their first ten games this season. They rolled off eight straight wins including an impressive win at Marquette on Dec. 29 before getting beaten in overtime on Saturday by the Bulldogs. I'd rate Vandy as a three-seed, but they could get up to a two seed with a win against Kentucky. The Bulldogs have lost three of their last four road games and were beaten by Arkansas and Ole Miss. Like Vanderbilt, they had a long winning streak (11 games) in non-conference. Mississippi State's wins over Texas A&M and Arizona in the 2K Sports Classic are looking less impressive than when they happened, but their win at Vandy props them up to a four-seed. My season long dislike of the Gators was prompted by a preseason prediction. They do have a win over Florida State, which is getting better, but they have been beaten by the likes of Rutgers and Tennessee. Their game at Mississippi on Thursday could be pivotal.
The Bubble Teams
The Alabama Crimson Tide and Mississippi Rebels probably belong in the next higher group. Alabama has played three of the top four teams in their last three games. They lost all three. The Tide were also rolled by Georgetown, Dayton, and Kansas State in the non-conference slate. They certainly have the talent in JaMychal Green and Tony Mitchell to stage a run to a decent seed and schedule lightens considerably from here on out. Ole Miss (RPI 34) joins Alabama (29) as a team with a better current RPI than Florida and Mississippi State. The Rebels have beaten their intrastate rival as well as Arkansas and Miami (FL), but they had that three-game losing streak against Southern Miss, Middle Tennessee State, and Dayton while Murphy Holloway was out. They still have road games at Alabama, Mississippi State, Kentucky, and Arkansas to deal with. Speaking of the Arkansas Razorbacks, they are coming off a nice win over Michigan. They have also beaten Mississippi State and LSU, and own an RPI of 54. If they could beat Alabama on Jan. 28, I'd feel a bit better about their position. Like Vanderbilt, the LSU Tigers have a nice win over Marquette to help their resume. The problem is that the Tigers were beaten early in the season by Coastal Carolina, Northwestern, and South Alabama. They will need to win more than half of their remaining SEC games to get an at-large bid.
The Longshots
The four remaining teams have RPI's between 116 and 196. The Georgia Bulldogs have the best number, but they have lost four of their first five conference games and suffered a four-game losing streak in the non-conference slate. They will need a 2008-like run to make the tournament for the second straight year. The Auburn Tigers have not played in the tournament since 2003. Coach Tony Barbee's team has lost six of its last ten games. Their Christmas loss at UTEP may be the gift that keeps on taking. The Tennessee Volunteers seem to have new life with freshman Jarnell Stokes, but they have a lot of early season sins to atone for. Their losses against Austin Peay and Charleston should keep them away from putting on dancing shoes. Finally, the South Carolina Gamecocks have not been dancing since 2004. Unless Bruce Ellington recruits a few more football players to join the squad, their loss to Elon and Tennessee State will doom them.