I am not a bracketologist. I am somewhat skeptical of the entire endeavor. There is a professionally paid committee of athletic directors who finally do something to earn their exorbitant salaries. Let them do their job. I think they usually do a very fine job and they make judgment calls. Sadly, a side industry has taken up residence in trying to predict and criticize what they do. Nevertheless, I think bubble projections are more of use than the national rankings, so let's take a look at the teams in the Big 12. The conference splits nicely into three groups: top seeds, middle-seed/bubble teams, and need to pull a stunning run in the Big 12 tournament.
Top Seeds
We'll probably get a better sense of where these teams rank after tomorrow's game between Baylor and Missouri. If the Tigers are able to win on the road and give Baylor their first home loss, they could conceivable be in line for a two-seed. Unless Kansas is able to beat either Baylor or Missouri on the road, I think they are in line for a two-seed. I'd have them behind Kentucky, Syracuse, Ohio State, and North Carolina. If they run the table in the Big 12, they are unquestionable a one-seed, even though their loss at home to Davidson is troubling. Even with the loss on Monday at Kansas, Baylor has the highest RPI of three. They have solid non-conference wins over San Diego State, BYU, St. Mary's, West Virginia, and Mississippi State with the win over BYU on the road. If they can win the rest of their games against Missouri and Kansas, they could be in line for a one-seed as well. Missouri's non-conference slate will not help them much. Wins over Notre Dame, California, Villanova, and Illinois looked more impressive at the time. All of those teams are bubble teams at best. I see Missouri as a nice three-seed who could get upset if they run into the wrong team or have a bad shooting game. If they can beat Baylor tomorrow in Waco, they could push their resume up to a two-seed. I am really curious to see Ricardo Ratliffe and Quincy Acy as well as the legions of guards on Missouri against Baylor's forwards who wish they were guards (Perry Jones and Quincy Miller). Phil Pressey vs. Pierre Jackson is another marquis match up.
Bubble Teams
Things get a bit more interesting as we get closer to the bubble. I don't really think Kansas State is a bubble team. They played Baylor toe-to-toe ten days ago and they're only loss in the non-conference was against West Virginia. They gave Missouri their first loss and beat Alabama in the non-conference. With Rodney McGruder heating up and a three-week run of games against their fellow bubble teams and longshots, the Wildcats could play themselves into a five-seed. So far, Iowa State has beaten the teams they were supposed to and lost to Missouri and Kansas. Their loss at Michigan isn't particularly damaging, but they did lose at Drake and at home to Northern Iowa. If they take care of business against the other five teams and don't get upset in the Big 12 tournament, I could see the Royce White-led squad ending up with a seven-seed. Iowa State hasn't been dancing since 2005. Texas has a weaker RPI than Iowa State to whom they lost to open Big 12 conference play. The Longhorns are fun to watch because they don't play much defense, a big change from last year's squad. J'Covan Brown would be one of those players to spotlight for NCAA tournament fantasy games, at least for the first round. Before the end of the month, Texas plays Kansas, Iowa State, Baylor and Missouri so they could certainly play their way in (or out if they get swept in all four games). Oklahoma is squarely (or would that be spherically) on the bubble. They have an RPI of 74. Their loss to Saint Louis wasn't too bad at the time, even though the Billikens have fallen off. Losses at Cincinnati, Missouri, and Oklahoma State won't hurt too much, but their win over Kansas State is decent. At this point, I'd put them in as a First Four.
Longshots
So who is heading to the NIT or worse? The most surprising team almost certainly being left home playing Nintendo games in the basement while the rest of their classmates are dancing is Texas A&M. What happened to the Aggies who were rated 16th by Blue Ribbon and Basketball Prospectus said "it's tough to imagine them finishing worse than .500 in conference play." They rolled along through mid-December even without Khris Middleton. They did lose to Mississippi State and beat St. John's, but they clearly under-scheduled. They lost at Florida on Dec. 17 and proceeded to lose five of their last seven games, including a home date with Rice. The slow-it-down style of Billy Kennedy isn't really meshing with his players and the team has dropped four of its first five games in conference. With an RPI of 184, they will need to put it together quickly to make some postseason noise. For Oklahoma State, they did beat Missouri State. However, they lost to everyone else of note, including Iowa State on Wednesday on a buzzer beater. It looks like the Cowboys won't extend their NCAA tournament streak to three years. The Red Raiders haven't won a NCAA tournament game since 2005. Unless they make a miraculous run in the Big 12 tournament, that streak and their lack of appearances in the NCAA tournament since 2007 will continue.