In eight weeks, Selection Sunday will be upon us. While that seems soon, a lot will change between now and then. The bubbles will burst for some teams on Mar. 11 while others will be in celebration to have made the field. One thing that is for certain is that the Big Ten Conference will be well represented on this glorious day in March. Entering Sunday, the Big Ten is one of three conferences in which every team in the conference boasted a .500 record or better, the other two conferences being the Mountain West and the SEC. Although there is obvious parity in the Big Ten, in which seemingly anyone can beat anyone else on any given day, not all 12 squads will be extending their season after the Big Ten Tournament in Indianapolis. The Big Ten was represented with seven teams in last year’s version of March Madness and receiving eight bids this season isn’t out of the question for the league. Although every team has at least one conference win, Nebraska and Penn State have not been impressive enough in league play thus far to warrant any NCAA Tournament consideration. Minnesota hasn’t either for that matter, but because of their 12-1 nonconference record the Golden Gophers could be dancing in March if they can get nine conference wins. Although nine conference wins seems to be the magic number, Iowa would probably need at least 10 because of their unfortunate 8-5 nonconference record. That leaves Michigan State, Illinois, Michigan, Indiana, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin, and Northwestern the ability to control their own destiny, since none of that group other than Purdue had more than two out of conference losses prior to conference play. The depth of the league is its real strength and there appears to be no gimme games. While the projected seeds of the conference as a whole may seem high, I believe the NCAA committee will realize how tough the Big Ten was and realize that teams simply beat up on each other giving teams worse records than they should be.
Illinois Fighting Illini (15-3 Overall, 4-1 Big Ten)
To think that the Fighting Illini would be in first place after the first three weeks of Big Ten play seems crazy. This coming from a lifelong Illini fan and current student at the university. Brandon Paul can certainly be thanked for the team’s fast start. The junior from Gurnee dropped 43 points last Tuesday on Ohio State, giving the Illini four single digit wins to start off the Big Ten season. Bruce Weber’s squad still has to take on the Buckeyes in Columbus next month, but only takes on both Indiana and Michigan State once because of the unbalanced scheduling. Meyers Leonard is one of the top big men in the league, while Joe Bertrand has suddenly become a consistent scorer in the Illini’s four guard offense. Projected Seed: 5
Michigan State Spartans (15-4 Overall, 4-2 Big Ten)
After rattling off 15 straight games, the Spartans finally fell this past Saturday at Northwestern. MSU gave up 81 points to NU’s Princeton Offense and got beat on a number of backcourt cuts. Tom Izzo only played Adrien Payne and Branden Dawson a combined 28 minutes in that game, while I believe those are the two most athletic players on their team. Winning on the road at Wisconsin in early January was a good sign for this young team, who like everyone else in the conference still has a tough schedule remaining. Tuesday night’s battle against the Wolverines in Ann Arbor would be another huge road win to notch for the Spartans if both Draymond Green and Keith Appling can continue their high level of play. Projected Seed: 3
Michigan Wolverines (15-4 Overall, 5-2 Big Ten)
While seniors Stu Douglass and Zack Novak may be the heart and soul of the Wolverines, it’s the youngsters that are Michigan’s top players. Freshman Trey Burke is in the running for Big Ten Freshman of the Year, while sophomores Tim Hardaway Jr., Evan Smotrycz, and Jordan Morgan have matured since a year ago. The Wolverines are unbeaten at home this season, but have fallen on the road in their only two Big Ten road tests thus far. While wins on the road in the Big Ten are hard to come by, the elite teams always seem to get it done. While Michigan is not yet at that elite status, I did select the Wolverines as my preseason second-place team in the league. With the parity in this league though, Michigan could finish anywhere between second and eighth and this point. Projected Seed: 3
Ohio State Buckeyes (16-3 Overall, 4-2 Big Ten)
The Buckeyes already have more losses this season than they did all of last year. They only dropped two Big Ten games a year ago and are currently at that mark, after Brandon Paul’s heroic like effort last week in Champaign. To be fair, it takes unbelievable individual performances to beat OSU even on the road. Last season, Jordan Taylor and E’Twaun Moore carried their teams to victory, much like Paul just did. Despite these losses, the Buckeyes have blown everyone out of the water at home and should be just fine come March. Jared Sullinger, Deshaun Thomas, and William Buford make up a deadly scoring trio, while Aaron Craft and Lenzelle Smith Jr. round out the starting five. Projected Seed: 1
Indiana Hoosiers (15-3 Overall, 3-3 Big Ten)
Everyone knows that Hoosiers are untouchable at home, after defeating both Kentucky and Ohio State there already. But can they win on the road? So far in Big Ten road affairs, Indiana has lost to Michigan State by 15, beaten lowly Penn State by 6, and lost at Ohio State by 17. The Hoosiers only start one senior, Verdell Jones III, whose has been a part of three straight losing seasons in Bloomington. That will certainly change this year, but which Hoosier team will show up in March? As long as IU takes care of business at home and steals at least of couple of road games, they should be fine come Selection Sunday, thanks in large part to freshman Cody Zeller and junior Christian Watford. Projected Seed: 4
Purdue Boilermakers (14-5 Overall, 4-2 Big Ten)
Where would Purdue be right now without Robbie Hummel? Although Hummel’s injuries may have kept Purdue from making a Final Four run the past two seasons, the Boilermakers are sure happy to have him back this season. Fellow seniors Ryne Smith and Lewis Jackson have also been providing offense, while juniors Kelsey Barlow and D.J. Byrd have been hot as of late. Defense has always been a staple of Matt Painter coached teams, and this year’s squad is no different. Eight of Purdue’s final 13 games come against ranked opponents, since their first five conference games all came against unranked squads. While Purdue should accumulate enough W’s to become tournament bound, they do not have enough offensive firepower to stick with the top tier teams in the Big Ten on a nightly basis. Projected Seed: 11
Iowa Hawkeyes (11-9 Overall, 3-4 Big Ten)
The Hawkeyes have been as inconsistent as any team in the Big Ten. After defeating both Wisconsin and Minnesota on the road, Iowa managed to lose to Ohio State and Michigan State by a combined 63 points. Then they followed that up by beating Michigan by 16 points. While the Hawkeyes have plenty of talent, in the likes of Melsahn Basabe, Roy Marble, Matt Gatens, and Aaron White, this inconsistency will come back to bite them in the butt. Nonconference losses to Campbell and Northern Iowa, along with three other defeats, make Iowa’s road to the NCAA Tournament much tougher than any other Big Ten contenders. Even if they get too the .500 mark in league play, that would give them 13 losses pre-Big Ten Tournament. While crazier things have happened, I believe the Hawkeyes may still be a year away from dancing. Projected Seed: NIT
Wisconsin Badgers (14-5 Overall, 3-3 Big Ten)
Bo Ryan has never finished lower than fourth place in the Big Ten. And prior to the start of conference play, I thought that streak would continue simply because of how consistent the Badgers have been and because of how well they play at home. But after home losses to Iowa and Michigan State and a narrow win over Nebraska at the Kohl Center, the Badgers might just not be as good as in years past. The Big Ten is as deep as it has ever been and while Jordan Taylor has been playing better lately, the Badgers cannot match up athletically with some of the Big Ten’s better teams. Despite all of this, the Swing Offense and terrific team defense will be enough to get UW easily back into the NCAA Tournament once again. Projected Seed: 5
Northwestern Wildcats (12-5 Overall, 2-3 Big Ten)
After losing to Illinois and at Michigan by a combined three points, Northwestern was in desperate need of a quality win. And they got that this past Saturday by defeating Michigan State 81-74, in a game that I was in attendance for. John Shurna and Drew Crawford make up one of the nation’s top scoring duos, and need to continue that trend for NU to make their first ever NCAA Tournament appearance. Formerly the backup center, Davide Curletti has now moved into the starting lineup taking Luka Mirkovic’s place, while former walk-on Reggie Hearn has provided contributions during Alex Marcotullio and Jershon Cobb’s absences. Freshman point guard David Sobolewski has also been phenomenal taking care of the basketball and distributing to his teammates. NU needs to get at least nine league wins to become tournament eligible, something that is attainable but will not be easy. Projected Seed: 10
Minnesota Golden Gophers (14-5 Overall, 2-4 Big Ten)
The Golden Gophers somehow managed to win six straight games after Trevor Mbakwe went down for the season, but followed that up by four straight losses to start the Big Ten season. Tubby Smith’s team then went on to defeat both Indiana and Penn State on the road, leaving Gopher fans scratching their heads. While forwards Ralph Sampson III and Rodney Williams make up a solid frontcourt and Minnesota has enough guards to go around, the loss of Mbakwe will be too much to make up over the course of a whole year much like losing Al Nolen did to the Gophers a season ago. Only having one loss prior to league play definitely improves Minnesota’s tournament chances, but getting nine league wins without the conference’s top rebounder is a tall task to ask any team. If Minnesota, and every other Big Ten team mentioned above save Iowa, can somehow get to .500 in the league, could the B1G be looking at nine NCAA Tournament teams? That would certainly be an improve mark for the 12-team league. Projected Seed: NIT