Our look at the potential NCAA Tournament field continues with the Big East. Since the conference expanded to 16 teams in 2005, it has more or less received six to eight bids each year. The league procuring 11 tickets to the dance last year was a nice outlier, but the Big East will fall back into that same six to eight range this year. With the exceptions of Louisville and Cincinnati, there won’t be a lot of bubble drama. There is a pretty clear line between the haves and the have-not.
In
Syracuse - This one really doesn’t require a whole a lot of analysis. At 20-0, I think it’s safe to say the Orange are in. They’ve been the best team in the conference offensively and defensively by any appreciable measure. They probably won’t run the table, but barring injuries or an unforeseen collapse, you can pencil in Syracuse as the #1 seed in the East. Moving on.
UConn - The defending national champions have won two in a row after getting swept in their Jersey two-step. They’re currently ranked #4 in the RPI. As always, they’re spearheaded by a suffocating interior defense. Opponents are making just a measly 37.6% of their twos and seeing their shots rejected at a 19.2% clip. With two games left against Syracuse, they have a chance to make a run at a #1 seed, but will probably end up on the two or three seed line.
Seton Hall - Despite the tough road loss to South Florida the other night, I’m still a believer in Kevin Willard’s Pirates. They showed well at their holiday tournament in Charleston back in November, got a tough road win at Dayton, and currently stand 15-3 with strong home wins over West Virginia and UConn to their credit. The schedule stiffens with four out of their next six games on the road with trips to Villanova, to Marquette, a return date with the Huskies and a trip to the RAC to play a feisty Rutgers squad. If they come out of this stretch unscathed (say 3-3), the schedule from mid-February on gets tame enough that I can see them landing on the four or five seed line.
Marquette - Buzz Williams’ squad has won three in a row after tough road losses to UConn and Syracuse. They like to play fast and create turnovers. The Golden Eagles force opponents to turn it over at a 25% clip. Their non-conference wins over Washington and Wisconsin do not look as impressive as they once did, but with a RPI of 12, it’s hard to think Marquette won’t be dancing. Right now, I have them in the same four to five range as the Hall.
Georgetown- With five top 50 RPI wins and a 14 RPI ranking, the Hoyas appear to be in good shape. Six of their remaining 11 games are at home and only their road game at Syracuse looks terribly daunting. This is another team that will probably land in that three-five seed range.
West Virginia - The Mountaineers currently sit at 13-5 with an RPI of 15. They have three top 50 RPI wins including a road win at Kansas State. I have them as a six or seven seed right now. With a dynamic player like Kevin Jones, they will be a tough out for any team.
On the Bubble
Cincinnati- This may sound simplistic, but the Bearcats need to keep winning. While they’re 4-1 in conference play so far, they will be hurt by their non-conference schedule (rated number 337 by Pomeroy) and a home loss to the always pesky Blue Hose of Presbyterian. The committee will not look kindly on their seven wins over teams ranked 200+ in the RPI. Their win at Georgetown was solid and a win at UConn on Wednesday night will help people start to forget their dreadful non-conference schedule.
Louisville- If you remember, Louisville was my pick to win the Big East this year. They are in lower half of the conference with a 2-4 record. So yeah, a number #1 seed in the Big East Tournament isn’t going to happen. However, hope for an NCAA Tournament bid is not lost. They’re number 43 in the RPI and non-conference wins against Ohio, Long Beach State, Memphis, and Vanderbilt are good. With two games against Syracuse, a home game against UConn, a road game against West Virginia, and a bubble game at Cincinnati, they won’t be bereft of chances to impress. To do so, they’ll need to improve offensively. My suggestion: fewer shots for Russ Smith and more shots for Chris Smith, Gorgui Dieng and Kyle Kuric when he comes back healthy.
Out
South Florida, Villanova, DePaul, Rutgers, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Providence, St. John’s
Sure, it’s possible that any of these teams can scrap their way to a .500 record in the conference, get hot in New York and play their way in. I believe UConn had some success last year doing it this way. However, unlike UConn, they all failed to distinguish themselves in non-conference play and have some big flaws: Nova can’t shoot or defend well enough, Providence and St. John’s play with only about three players most of the time, South Florida turns it over too much, Rutgers and Notre Dame get killed on the glass, and DePaul is DePaul.
If there’s something all those teams potentially have in common, it’s that they’re thankful they aren’t the Big East’s version of The Wreck of the Hesperus, otherwise known as Pittsburgh. The disappointing Panthers are 0-6 in conference play. They are getting shredded by opposing offenses and, except for offensive rebounding, they aren’t doing better when they have the ball shown by their 39-point performance against Rutgers at home. To paraphrase the Henry Wadsworth Longfellow poem, they are a ship in distress that hasn’t been able to live in the angry Big East sea. In other words, they aren’t making the NCAA Tournament.