This week, we're going to take a short break from straight fantasy writing, and give our take on how the NCAA Tournament field will shake out. Similar to the fantasy prospects of the ACC, its teams aren't looking like they'll be making much noise through March. Don't be afraid to let us know what you think your team's prospects are of making the Big Dance!
In
Duke and North Carolina
Right now, these two rivals are the only teams you can say with 100% certainty are going to be dancing. Right now, Duke may earn a #1 seed by default, as there have to be four of them. Realistically, these two teams are probably competing with each other for that slot on the top line, and the two regular season meetings figure to go a long way in determining the conference's regular season champion, and in turn, a #1 seed. Duke played a very impressive non-conference schedule and that should help their cause should these two split the regular season and/or a conference championship. Having said that, anyone who's watched Duke can see they simply don't look like a team that you put atop your bracket, and pencil them all the way through four games and into a Final Four. Love them or hate them, I'd expect them to be a pretty popular upset pick if they earn a top seed.
North Carolina on the other hand is looking an awful lot like a paper champion. Maybe they find some motivation over the next six weeks, and play with some passion. Talent here isn't a question, but desire certainly is after watching the 'Heels debacle in Tallahassee over the weekend. When you mix in a top 20 RPI ranking with the name on the front of the jersey, you have to assume they'll be in the conversation for a top slot come March.
In Good Shape
Virginia
The only cause for concern here is the Cavaliers strength of schedule currently sits at 144, and that includes having already played at Duke. The Wahoos are 14-2, and play a stifling defense that insures they'll stay in most games. They don't have any terrific firepower offensively, and as a result, could lose a few games down the stretch that will have you scratching your head. Come Selection Sunday, the 'Hoos will be dancing provided they don't suffer a major collapse. My guess is they get shipped out west as a 5-7 seed, and their postseason success will be directly correlated to their matchups. A run into the second weekend of the tournament seems just as likely as a first round exit.
Florida State
If the Dance started today, the 'Noles are in. Currently owning an RPI ranking of 48 and the 12th toughest schedule, the 'Noles need to use their impressive showing against North Carolina as a springboard to securing a postseason birth. Prior to Saturday's victory, FSU had simply beaten everyone they were supposed to and lost to everyone that's better than them. This conference is down, but should still see 4-5 bids. Head coach Leonard Hamilton needs to continue beating those they should beat, and could really use a victory in one of their two meetings with Duke. I see the 'Noles as a 11-12 seed, with the opportunity to claw as high as the #7 line come Mar. 11.
On the Bubble
North Carolina State
The Wolfpack undoubtedly give the ACC their best shot at a fifth NCAA Tournament bid., but they are yet another squad in this conference without a signature victory. Currently sitting at 13-5, the 'Pack boast an RPI ranking of 58, and a 29th ranked SOS. A tough schedule full of losses won't get you into the Big Dance, and N.C. State desperately needs a victory over one of the conference's top two squads. They must also avoid more home losses like their Jan. 11 defeat at the hands of Georgia Tech.
Maryland
Don't look now, but the Terrapins are healthy and 12-4 as a result. Losing at North Carolina State in the conference opener just may be the breaking point here, as the Terps wont get a chance to avenge this loss during the regular season. They do get both North Carolina and Duke twice, but probably need to win two of those four, and at least one game in Greensboro to feel like they have a legitimate shot on Selection Sunday. Those four games, two with Virginia and a trip to Temple should help the Terrapins resume, which currently includes a meager 86th RPI ranking, and 117th ranked schedule. The opportunity is there for Maryland to play their way in.
Miami (FL)
I don't think the 'Canes are going to make the NCAA Tournament. Unlike the five teams below, they are talented enough to win a few games that will open eyes of the selection committee. The 'Canes road schedule is manageable (at Georgia Tech, Boston College, Duke, Florida State, Maryland and North Carolina State,) so if they can protect their homecourt and win half of those road games, they're going to finish in the top five or six of the conference. Win a game in Greensboro and it'll give folks something to think about.
Need to win conference tournament
Boston College, Georgia Tech, Clemson, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Boston College is rebuilding, so I'll stop short of calling them awful. Virginia Tech lost to the Eagles, and while I know it was without leading scorer Erick Green, the Hokies aren't making the dance again barring a miracle run through February, or a four-game win streak in Greensboro. Clemson showed flashes against FSU, and competed with Duke over the weekend, but at 9-8 and a conference worst SOS of 150, they're post season hopes are probably related to appearing in Madison Square Garden late in the year. Georgia Tech is another team who's been competitive in their conference games, but they are also the only ACC team without a winning record as I write this, and will struggle to qualify for post season opportunities. I thought Wake Forest was turning the corner, and could be a thorn in the conference's upper tier's side, but a 36 point drubbing by North Carolina State will be tough to forget. The Demon Deacons figure to be one-and-done in the conference tournament.
Predictions (seed): North Carolina (1) Duke (2) Virginia (8) Florida State (10) North Carolina State (12)