Coming into the season, the SEC seemed top heavy to me. Kentucky looked like (and is) a national power. The second tier of the conference figured to be Alabama, Vanderbilt, and Mississippi State. Many people liked Florida as well, but I did not. The bottom half of the conference fared well in non-conference play, and I think there could be some surprise teams in the NCAA tournament. Not surprising, perhaps, as Georgia a few years ago, but teams like LSU and Arkansas may be able to make some noise. I did not include the Tigers in my five-pack of highlighted games, but that doesn't mean you should forget about Justin Hamilton and the LSU squad.
Thursday, Jan. 19, Vanderbilt at Alabama
These two teams have been through a lot already. Vanderbilt opened the season without their best defensive presence, Festus Ezeli, and struggled. Their scoring duo of John Jenkins and Jeffery Taylor have been rolling along. The Commodores were able to beat Alabama in their lone meeting last year behind 20 points from Jenkins. The Crimson Tide have their own scoring duo in JaMychal Green and Tony Mitchell. The two-some had 45 points against Vandy last year and are combining to average a shade under 30 points this season. Ezeli is getting healthier and could cause problems for the Bama bigs.
Saturday, Jan. 21, Mississippi State at Vanderbilt
Two days later, the Commodores return home to meet the Bulldogs. Arnett Moultrie seems to be enjoying his new environs in Starksville and is the conference's leading rebounder at 11.3 boards. The Moultrie-Ezeli match up has the potential to be one of the most intriguing in SEC play. Dee Bost and Brad Tinsley have had many battles at the point. The Bulldogs seem to rely on Renardo Sidney a great deal. The 300-pounder gets easy baskets in the paint, but can't play more than 22 minutes because of terrible conditioning. If Vandy can sweep these two games, they should be able to get a decent seed in the Big Dance.
Tuesday, Feb. 21, Kentucky at Mississippi State
There are a number of teams that came claim to be the second best in conference, but I think Mississippi State will give the Wildcats the most problems. If Sidney comes to play, he will cause problems for the interior of the Cat defense. Anthony Davis is an excellent help defender, but he will get moved around by the much bulkier Sidney. Coach John Calipari may ask Terrence Jones to muscle up Sidney and let Davis worry about Moultrie. Meanwhile, Bost can use his experience against Marquis Teague and Rodney Hood will continue to be a tough match up. Kentucky will be tested on Feb. 11 at Vanderbilt, but the trip to Starksville will be their toughest game to date.
Saturday, Feb. 25, Arkansas at Auburn
The Tigers did not open the conference slate well. They scored just 35 points against Vanderbilt and made 27.3% of their shots. Ouch. Things don't get easier for Auburn as they head to Kentucky this week. If they manage to keep their heads above water in the early conference slate, this late February game against Arkansas may matter. I like the way coach Tony Barbee gets his team to compete and they have some nice pieces in Kenny Gabriel, Frankie Sullivan, and Chris Denson. The Razorbacks seem to be taking to coach Mike Anderson's system well. Freshman B.J. Young is an excellent scorer and Rickey Scott has been on a nice shooting tear. Arkansas swept Auburn last year, so the Tigers will be looking for some revenge.
Sunday, Mar. 4, Kentucky at Florida
The Gators could be playing for their dancing lives on the last day of the regular season when they host Kentucky. Florida has not lost at home this season, but they do not match up very well against the Wildcats. Kentucky has size across the floor and can cover the perimeter very well. It will be incumbent on the Gators to play as a team and not settle for jumpers - that seems against their nature. Patric Young will have to battle in the paint against the three Wildcat forwards (Davis, Jones, and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist) and someone on Florida needs to be willing to pass. I am not exactly rooting against Florida despite the prediction above, but I don't like the way their roster was constructed.