Early Returns: Surprises in the Pac 12

Tyler Holmes
Pac 12 Guru
November 29, 2011

The Pac 12 conference has been a little gloomy. Today we put on a smile and talk about the good surprises that have emerged from the Left Coast. A handful of players have taken advantage of their opportunities to become fantasy stalwarts on some savvy owner’s roster.  Also, two teams have made some early noise that they shouldn’t be an afterthought come Selection Sunday. Here are the fantasy revelations from the Pac 12 conference after the first month of hoops.

Brock Motum's consistency

The 6-foot-10 Australian is making it look easy out in Pullman. He is averaging 15.2 points and 7.0 rebounds, both good enough to rank him in the top ten in the conference. Motum has really stepped up this year to help replace the scoring that Klay Thompson took with him to the NBA. But this is where it gets a little crazy. Last year Motum averaged 1.49 points per shot while shooting 60% from the floor. He has doubled his shot attempts this year, but he is still averaging 1.49 points per shot and shooting 59% from the field. Usually when an efficient player is asked to take on more of a scoring load it will cause a decrease in effectiveness. In Motum’s case, he is the exact same player who happens to be taking twice as many shots as the previous season. I think he should go by the nickname, “The Big Equation.”

Devon Collier's aggressiveness

The 6-foot-8 sophomore forward from the Bronx came to Corvallis last year as the highest rated recruit in the Craig Robinson era. A solid freshman campaign showed promise, but he is starting to meet the expectations many had of him upon enrolling. He looks far more assertive on the offense end than last year and that has led to him taking five more shots per game. The extra attempts have allowed him to raise his scoring average from 7.0 points to 16.3 points and become someone defenses must account for. Throw in his 4.5 rebounds, 1.8 steals, 1.8 blocks and his excellent field goal percentage (68%) and you have one of the better all-around players in the conference.

Utah’s one man-show

Even though Josh Watkins entered the season as the leading returning scorer in the conference, he was nowhere to be found on the Preseason All Conference Teams. While the Utes have yet to beat a Division I squad, it hasn’t been because of Watkins’ fantastic play. He is second in the conference in scoring (18.8 points), third in assists (4.8) and is pulling down boards (4.2) as well. He has also raised his field goal percentage by eight points, his three-point percentage by nine points, and his free throw shooting almost 13 points. The only negative on his stat line are his 4.8 turnovers. Keep riding him while he is scorching hot because he might be a sell high candidate as the competition increases.

Freshman of the Year Frontrunner Tony Wroten

Wroten was the least talked about of the trio of talented freshmen point guards heading into the season, but he has clearly put himself on top of the neophyte hierarchy. While Jahii Carson waits for a test score to determine his eligibility and Josiah Turner adjusts to playing in a team atmosphere, all Wroten has done is become one of the best players on an already talented squad. The 6-foot-5 Seattle native is averaging 12.8 points, 4.2 rebounds, 3.8 assists and 2.2 steals in less than 24 minutes off the bench. He still needs to work on his shooting (41% from the charity stripe) and decision making (4.4 turnovers) but he looks like a shoo-in to take home the Freshman of the Year award. He is going to be a special player if he sticks around the Emerald City for a couple more seasons.

The Stanford Cardinal

It appears that coach Johnny Dawkins spent some time with some Stanford math professors this summer and learned about how to add by subtracting. The Cardinal were picked to finish sixth by the coaches during the preseason and looked like they would struggle on offense with shooting guard Jeremy Green off to the professional ranks. All they have done this year is increase their scoring by 8.5 points and found multiple players capable of carrying the load on any given night. They suddenly have a deep team thanks to some good recruiting classes and have nine players averaging at least 13.7 minutes. This depth has sucked the fantasy potential out of most of their roster, but it has allowed to them to spread out the scoring responsibility while also increasing the defensive intensity. They are 6-1 with their lone loss coming from Syracuse in the NIT Season Tip-Off final in Madison Square Garden. They were leading that game by seven points with less than five minutes to play before fading down the stretch. It was definitely a performance that opened some eyes and raised expectations once conference play starts.

The Oregon State Beavers

Much like Stanford, not much was expected from the Beavers this year. The coaches voted them eighth in the preseason poll coming off a 10-19 record last season. They returned just about everyone and have jumped out to a 5-1 start this year. They beat Texas in overtime before losing to a ranked Vanderbilt squad by two points in the TicketCity Legends Classic earlier this month. The Beavers are very athletic and have switched to a suffocating man-to-man defense rather than the zone they employed the last couple of years. This change has really allowed them to pick up tempo and get out in the open court more often. The emergence of the above mentioned Collier has been a big help, but the biggest reason for their turnaround is point guard Jared Cunningham.  He leads the conference in scoring with 20.8 points due to his ability to get to the charity stripe (11.0 attempts) at will. If he keeps it up and the Beavers make a run in conference play, they just might find themselves playing deep into March.