With 16 teams, the Big East always has an air of unpredictability to it. Last year, the big surprise was Steve Lavin leading St. John's back to the NCAA Tournament. Then again, we predicted that here, so maybe it wasn't that much of a surprise. Anyway, here's one man's best attempt to be "bold". As someone who can barely predict what I'll be eating for dinner day-to-day, I'm sure I'll be looking back at these at some point in the future and having a good laugh.
Providence guard Vincent Council will be a bust
If you've read my Big East Top Ten article, you may have wondered how I could have forgetten to include Vincent Council. He averaged 13.7 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 5.9 apg last year, so you would think he would be a guy to target for your draft this year. However, looking past the surface numbers I see a few red flags. First, Keno Davis is gone. More specifically, his up tempo style of play that allowed the Friars to jack up shots with impunity is gone. Providence will be playing at a slower pace under new head coach Ed Cooley. With the fewer amount of possessions, he becomes less attractive.
Secondly, Council regressed from his freshmen year. Last year, he took a higher percentage of shots from 2010, and saw his shooting percentage numbers drop. Council's two-point field goal percentage dropped to 36.6% from 43.5% in 2010. He also drew fewer fouls as his free throw rate dropped to 39.2% from 53.8% in 2010. Council has never been a great three-point shooter, so if he can't find a way to increase his efficiency inside the arc, he will be a headache for those who draft him.
Lastly, I should mention that bust is relative to where you draft him. Council can still be useful as he'll have the ball in his hands a lot and should rack up assists, but based on his per game numbers from a year ago, he'll probably be going in round one or round two of your draft. I don't think his production this year will justify taking him that highly.
DePaul will win five Big East conference games this year
It is obvious to say that the Blue Demons have been overmatched since joining the Big East in 2005. In the last three seasons, DePaul has a record of 2-52 in conference play. On the bright side, there is reason for hope in Chicago. Oliver Purnell has a solid track record of turning programs around and getting them into the NCAA Tournament. It helps that he has two young stars to build around in sophomores Cleveland Melvin and Brandon Young.
Even with the loss of freshman Shane Larkin (who left for Miami), Purnell has increased the team's athleticism with newcomers Donavan Kirk, Jamee Crockett, Montray Clemons, Charles McKinney, Derrell Robertson, and Macari Brooks. All will be a better fit for Purnell's frenetic, trapping style than what he inherited last season. While the Blue Demons won't compete for an NCAA Tournament berth, this year will be a first step back to respectability for a once proud program.
Louisville wins the regular season Big East championship
With the much-ballyhooed addition of Andre Drummond, UConn has become the popular favorite in the Big East. A strong case can still be made for Syracuse. I'll play contrarian and pick Rick Pitino's Cardinals. As with most Rick Pitino coached teams, this one will have a lot of depth and shoot a ton of threes. Kyle Kuric and Chris Smith are efficient shooters that should help offset the loss of Preston Knowles. I've already touched on Gorgui Dieng and Chane Behanan in my Big East sleepers article and freshman guard Wayne Blackshear is another highly touted recruit that should pitch in right away. Jared Swopshire (7.1 ppg and 6.1 rpg in 2009-10) returns from an injury last season. The key will be to get more consistent play out of point guard Peyton Siva. The former McDonalds All-American is a very good distributor, but has a tendency to disappear in games. Still, I think the pieces are there for Louisville to win the league and make a deep run in March.