It took me awhile to think of a bold prediction for the Big Ten this season, let alone three. With so many seniors gone from last year, the conference has more question marks than ever before. How do teams replace three- or four-year starters who were All-Conference players? Who will give Ohio State a run for their money? And how will the conference compare to the past few seasons? All of these questions came to mind when thinking about what I would write for this article. Hopefully after reading this, some of those questions will be answered for you. Don't count on it though, considering these predictions are bold and in a couple months I might look back and ask myself what was I thinking. You can be sure though that these will be more accurate than Perry's predictions last year for the Big Ten. Let's hope I don't jinx any teams here.
The Big Ten will get eight teams into the NCAA Tournament
Last year the Big Ten tied a conference record by getting seven teams into the NCAA Tournament. So in what is supposed to be a down year for the conference, I'm going to be very bold and predict that the conference breaks that record this season. The Big Ten added Nebraska to the conference this season, which means the conference has 12 teams now for those of you counting. Every team in the conference won at least 17 games last year, aside from Indiana and Iowa. The NCAA tournament has expanded to 68 teams and last year's field was very weak at the bottom. Given another weak field this season, it might only take 19 wins again to get in the field. Michigan State and Penn State both made it into the field last year as ten seeds, while their final record for the season was a mediocre 19-15. So which eight teams do I predict will make it? Ohio State, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Michigan State are my top four teams in the league. And Penn State should definitely be picked to finish last in the league, after losing nearly their whole team. So that means that four of these seven teams will make the tournament, keep up with me here: Purdue, Illinois, Northwestern, Minnesota, Iowa, Indiana, and Nebraska. I'll let you decide which of those teams you can add into the mix to make eight teams.
Purdue will finish in the bottom half of the Big Ten
I'm not sure if you noticed or not above, but I did not include Purdue into my top four teams in the Big Ten (the teams that will get a bye during the Big Ten Tournament). Over the past four seasons Purdue has finished second in the Big Ten three times, and was co-champions of the conference once. But with JaJuan Johnson and E'Twaun Moore gone and Robbie Hummel coming back from multiple injuries, I see this as a major down year for the Boilermakers. I still predict that they will make the NCAA Tournament field, because they play solid defense and are well coached, but I don't see them as a top six team in the conference this season. Michigan State finished seventh in the Big Ten last season with a 9-9 conference record. So it's definitely possible that Purdue finish 9-9, or even 10-8 and finish below the conference median line. The past few seasons there has been a logjam in the middle of the conference standings, and that should be the case again this season. While I stated that Purdue plays excellent team defense, the reason that I have them picked so low is because I think they will struggle scoring. Robbie Hummel is a great college basketball player, but it will be interesting to see how he responds to being the go-to-guy on offense. At 6-foot-8, he is a good outside shooter but lacks the ability to create for himself with the ball. Lewis Jackson averaged 8.0 points a season ago and should be Purdue's second best player. Purdue definitely lacks size in their frontcourt, with only two 6-foot-9 sophomores listed as the tallest players on the team. Neither player has much experience though, considering last year's Big Ten Player of the Year, Johnson, has played that position for the past four seasons. I'm not going to say that Purdue will be bad this season, because they won't, but expectations should be a lot lower than they have been in the past.
Michigan will finish second in the Big Ten
Since Ohio State is the obvious choice to win the conference yet again, I think that there are a handful of teams that you could make a case to get second place in the Big Ten. And the team that I like the most of the bunch is the Wolverines of Michigan. Yes, Darius Morris left for the NBA after his sophomore season, but the Wolverines bring literally everyone else back. Don't get me wrong, I think Morris is a great player but he won't be missed as much as people think. He averaged 2.9 turnovers last season, while taking nearly 12 shots per game as the team's point guard. He also only shot 25% from three-point range, well below any other Michigan player that got playing time. Tim Hardaway Jr. will have a breakout sophomore season, and could be a First Team All-Conference player. He is an incredible athlete who can drive as well as shoot from the outside. Speaking of outside shooters, savvy veterans Stu Douglass and Zack Novak are back in Ann Arbor, where they have been a part of two NCAA Tournament squads in their first three years. Big man Jordan Morgan improved by leaps and bounds from the beginning of last season through March Madness. He should be scoring in double figures on a regular basis, as could fellow sophomore Evan Smotrycz. Smotrycz stands 6-foot-9, but reminds me of ex-West Virginia player Kevin Pittsnoggle (who John Beilein coached). Smotrycz rarely mixes it up in the post and prefers to stand behind the arc launching three pointers where he made 38.1% of his attempts last seasons. Michigan should also be well prepared for conference play this season since they get to travel to Maui in late November and could take on the likes of Memphis, Duke, UCLA, Kansas, and Georgetown.