In addition to losing two teams in Colorado and Nebraska, the Big 12 lost plenty of star power and fantasy production. In all, the league must replace ten of its top 12 scorers (including the top six) and six of its top eight rebounders. Consequently, it made this preseason Top Ten list a challenge to compile.
1. Thomas Robinson, forward, Kansas Jayhawks
This one may come as a surprise, but hear me out. The Jayhawks lost a ton of talent, including the Morris twins up front, and they didn't bring in the kind of high-impact recruits that have become the norm at KU. Throw in the fact that T-Rob put up 7.6 points and 6.4 boards in under 15 minutes per game last season and his impressive performances over the summer, and you have a guy poised for a breakout season. Need more reason for optimism? He shot 60.1% from the field, and he rates out well when looking at advanced metrics. In addition to a solid overall efficiency rating of 108.7, he posted ridiculous rebounding rates. Essentially he grabbed nearly one of every five Kansas misses while he was on the floor and ripped down better than 30% of possible defensive rebounds. I guess that's how you put up 15 points and 13 boards in just 17 minutes, as Robinson did against Missouri last year.
2. Perry Jones, forward, Baylor Bears
Jones was among the surprise returnees after what was expected to be a one-and-done college career. As a freshman, he logged a ton of minutes and averaged 13.9 points and 7.2 rebounds while shooting nearly 55% from the field and flashing a wide array of skills. He reached double-digit points in all but four games, although he did seem to wear down with fewer big scoring games and increased turnovers as the season wore on. The Bears have added a couple big-time recruits and a pair of impact transfers to the mix, and they will be challenged to replace LaceDarius Dunn. Baylor is currently on a tour of Canada, and even though the team has not been intact for the trip, Jones has scored at least 21 points in each of the first three games. Jones will clearly be the focal point of the offense and should continue to contribute on the glass as well, so look for steady production from the sophomore big man.
3. Khris Middleton, forward, Texas A&M Aggies
If you want to play it safe, Middleton is probably atop this list. He is less spectacular than some of the other players, but he was a solid multi-category contributor in his second season at A&M. Overall, Middleton posted 14.4 points, 5.2 rebounds, 2.8 assists, and 1.2 steals per contest. The 6-foot-7 swingman reached double figures in 27 of 33 games and is the team's top returning rebounder. His advanced metrics are favorable as well with a 107.5 offensive rating and a high assist rate. He's a solid shooter from the field and led the team by making nearly 80% of his free throws. So while Middleton does represent a relatively safe pick, there are a couple question marks. The addition of Billy Kennedy as the head coach isn't a huge factor for me, but I do worry about who is going to get him the ball. Dash Harris is back, but his shooting is abysmal, which means freshman Jamal Branch could be running the show. Like Baylor, the Aggies are on an exhibition tour, where Middleton has averaged nearly 12 points over the first three games. Washington transfer Elston Turner has actually led the team in scoring for all three games, so there is another name to file away and a guy who may cut into Middleton's scoring.
4. Royce White, forward, Iowa State Cyclones
At this point, you may be starting to question the drug testing policy at CFHI. And while we don't actually have one (at least that I know of), this pick is not nearly as crazy as it seems. I even toyed with putting him higher on the list. Wait, that probably doesn't make you feel better. You may remember White from his saga at Minnesota where he had a couple off-court legal incidents before "retiring" via YouTube and eventually leaving. He sat out last season while practicing with the Cyclones at Transfer U, and he made headlines this summer for his play on the court, specifically the fact that he averaged a triple-double in a summer league. Now look, I know a summer league isn't nearly the same as the NCAA, but White appears to have his mind right by all indications. And in what has apparently become standard for the Big 12, Iowa State is also on a tour this summer. In game one, White was limited to six points but grabbed 12 boards and dished out seven assists. As an encore in game two, he posted 15 points, 11 rebounds, six assists, three blocks, and two steals. With so few sure things in the conference, White is a guy I'm willing to roll the dice on this season based on the tremendous upside.
5. Marcus Denmon, guard, Missouri Tigers
Sadly, Missouri is not playing this summer so I have no actual stats to report. However, Denmon's numbers from last season are impressive in their own right. He averaged 16.9 points and finished with the 19th best offensive rating and the lowest turnover rate in the nation according to Ken Pomeroy. His shooting was superb with 50% from the field to go with 44.8% from deep and 75.8% from the stripe. Denmon scored at least nine points in all but one game and chipped in with 3.5 rebounds and 1.8 steals. So why is he only at number five then? Two words: Frank Haith. I'm not saying he isn't a good coach, but he finished 26 games under .500 in a down period for the ACC and now moves to a situation with infinitely higher pressure and expectations. His tempo numbers suggest a slow-down from the Mike Anderson era, which will reduce possessions along with potential scoring and even rebounding opportunities for Denmon. The Tigers are an experienced and talented team, but I am not sure that Denmon has the same ceiling as other guys on the list.
6. LeBryan Nash, freshman forward, Oklahoma State Cowboys
Nash is one of a few highly-rated recruits entering the Big 12 this season, and he finds himself in arguably the best situations to put up gaudy numbers in what is expected to be his lone college season. The Cowboys lost their leading scorer to graduation and didn't have a ton of offensive firepower to begin with. Nash is a 6-foot-7 small forward with superior athleticism and a body that is ready to face college competition from day one. His jump shot has improved, but he has shown a solid post game and excels at getting to the basket and using his strength to finish at the rim. Nash has drawn comparisons to Ron Artest, and while most are quick to clarify those comparisons are confined to basketball, some attitude issues have been raised as potential red flags. Nash's athleticism and toughness will allow him to contribute on the boards as well as the scoring column, but don't expect much at all in the way of assists.
7. Tyshawn Taylor, guard, Kansas Jayhawks
As I mentioned for Thomas Robinson, the roster turnover at Kansas has opened up a ton of opportunity, and Taylor should be another benefactor. In 27.1 minutes per game last season, Taylor averaged 9.3 points to go with 4.6 assists. He wasn't counted on to be a scorer in his first three seasons as a Jayhawk, but that changes this year. Taylor has shown to be a decent long-range shooter albeit in limited attempts, but he'll take many more shots this season. The assist numbers have been solid for a couple seasons, but last year's turnover rate was a tad alarming. It's certainly something to watch with less talent on the roster. Taylor did a nice job of drawing fouls and getting to the line last year, and he finished the season with five double-digit scoring efforts over the final six games. He has had a few off-court transgressions over his career, but I would expect those to be behind him as a senior leader of the team.
8. J'Covan Brown, guard, Texas Longhorns
Brown was not on my first cut of this list, but with so few no-brainers, I took a second look and changed my mind. First, the Longhorns lost a ton. How much? Well, Brown is the only returning player to average over 2.3 points. He logged 21.5 minutes per contest last season, posting 10.4 points, 2.2 rebounds, and 2.1 assists. Brown reached double figures in exactly half of Texas' 36 games, but he also had low points with 10 games of five points or less. One of his best assets is his ability to get to the line, which was on full display in two NCAA Tournament games last year. Brown tallied 44 points over those two games and hit all 25 of his free throw attempts in the process. I also considered Texas freshman point guard Myck Kabongo, but I expect Brown, who hit 38.5% of his triples last year, to be on the receiving end of quite a few Kabongo assists as the team's top scorer.
9. Quincy Miller, freshman forward, Baylor Bears
After tearing his ACL during his senior year in high school, all accounts have Miller on track to be ready for the beginning of the season. But he has missed Baylor's summer tour games while waiting on his NCAA paperwork to be finalized by the clearing house, so there is no real game action to fall back on. Still, coach Scott Drew has talked about the improvement in Miller's shot, and the time off the court also afforded him the opportunity to put in some work in the weight room to add bulk to his slight frame. Despite standing 6-foot-9, Miller prefers to face up and plays more away from the basket, but he has a wide variety of skills that will allow him to be a proficient scorer at the college level. Baylor is loaded in the frontcourt, and the biggest challenge may be finding minutes and shots to keep everyone happy. Assuming the knee is healthy, Miller should be among the first freshman off the board in many drafts.
10. Rodney McGruder, guard, Kansas State Wildcats
McGruder finished second on the team with 11.1 points per game last season. With Jacob Pullen and Curtis Kelly gone, he'll be counted on to carry more of the scoring burden. Despite those scoring numbers, McGruder also had his share of disappointing games with 11 single-digit efforts last year. Still, he has canned better than 40% from beyond the arc over his two-year career, and he led the team with nearly six rebounds per game as well. His efficiency numbers are strong, and in what appears to be a transitional year for the Wildcats, McGruder will be asked to lead the team. The only question is how well he responds to that pressure, but a couple years of being screamed at by Frank Martin should have him ready for just about anything.
Others Considered - Myck Kabongo (Texas), Laurence Bowers (Missouri), Quincy Acy (Baylor), David Loubeau (Texas A&M), Marshall Henderson (Texas Tech), Andrew Fitzgerald (Oklahoma)