Midnight madness is still two months away, but I am ready to tip the fantasy college basketball season off with a very early top ten for Tier 1. In the next couple of weeks, the CFHI staff will start rolling toward tip off with top tens for each Tier 1 conference. Later in August, we'll start peeking under the college basketball hood for some Tier 2-4 players to keep an eye on. For now, we'll concentrate on the big boys. For fantasy purposes (and otherwise), North Carolina and Kentucky are stocked with talent. The Wildcats have reloaded once again, but there may be some questions where their production will come from. North Carolina has one of the best returning frontcourts in recent memory. Dec. 3 is a date to circle when the two most talented teams meet in Lexington. As always, there has been quite a bit of turnover in college hoops and only one player returns from last year's list.
Keep in mind that the conference writers may not agree with me, but that SEC guy (me) will no doubt think this top ten is briliiant.
1. Jared Sullinger, forward/center, Ohio State Buckeyes
Sullinger is the first easy top pick since Tyler Hansbrough left North Carolina. He was valuable last year as a freshman who could cover the center spot (thanks to Blue Ribbon) and I don't believe his value will dip even though the Buckeyes graduated David Lighty and Jon Diebler. Sullinger played at 280 pounds last year and has spent the summer getting in shape . While he may need to adjust to his slimmer frame, he should be able to pound opponents even more than he did last year, when he was plenty impressive (17.2 points, 10.2 rebounds, 54.1% from the field). I wouldn't be surprised to see the sophomore lead the country in rebounding and score more than twenty points per game.
2. Harrison Barnes, forward, North Carolina Tar Heels
Anointed a star before he ever played a college game, Barnes looked like a terrible bust in the non-conference portion of the Tar Heels schedule. I couldn't figure out what he was supposed to do well. He looked like a guard in a forward's body, who could neither shoot nor penetrate. Apparently, Barnes' poor play was due to Larry Drew II because once Roy Williams benched his starting point guard, Barnes came to life. Kendall Marshall not only revitalized the Tar Heels, but Barnes seemed to hit his stride with his fellow freshman. The 6-foot-8 sophomore's overall numbers from his first season aren't eye-popping (15.7 points, 5.8 rebounds, 42.3% from the field), but he finished with strength. He had 40 points in an ACC tournament win over Clemson and averaged 21.0 points in the NCAA tournament.
3. Anthony Davis, freshman forward, Kentucky Wildcats
In the past, I have been hesitant to overrate freshmen. I may be overrating Davis, but why not throw caution to the wind? Coach John Calipari made it sound like he is going to revolve his team around the 6-foot-10 freshman rather than an incumbent like Terrence Jones. Davis is said to have the complete package and should be able to score in a variety of ways. There are two reasons to be hesitant about Davis: he is only 200 pounds and could get pushed around by wider players; and Kentucky is once again filled to the gills with talent. Along with Jones, the Wildcats have top recruits such as Michael Gilchrist and point guard Marquis Teague who may take stats. I am still buying the hype and think Davis may be the top fantasy player by year's end.
4. Jordan Taylor, guard, Wisconsin Badgers
On paper, Taylor will be a one-man army for the Badgers. In other words, this is the perfect fantasy situation for a high usage (i.e. ball hogging) guard. Someone always steps up for Wisconsin and my guess is someone like Mike Bruesewitz makes a leap into productivity. It really doesn't matter who becomes the second option because Taylor will have the ball in his hands and he will shoot a lot. As a junior, Taylor averaged 18.1 points, 4.1 rebounds, and 4.7 assists. He may be somewhat hard pressed to top those numbers, but they already are outstanding. Look for Taylor to continue the Wisconsin run near the top of the Big Ten heap.
5. JaMychal Green, forward, Alabama Crimson Tide
For the last three years, Green has been slowly making good on the hype that he brought to Alabama. The 6-foot-8 forward averaged 15.5 points and 7.5 rebounds in leading the Crimson Tide to the NIT final (where they lost to Wichita State). Green will hope to lead his team back to the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2006. He had seven double-doubles last year and made 50.8% of his shots from the field and a career-high 73.7% of his free throws. With Tony Mitchell at his side, Green will be able to play with the best frontcourts in the country, including Kentucky and Vanderbilt in his own conference.
6. Draymond Green, forward, Michigan State Spartans
I love the Dancing Bear. Big forwards that can pass always find a way into my heart and Green has become his generation's Geoff McDermott. The 2010-11 season did not go the way coach Tom Izzo planned for the Spartans and some of that blame should fall on Green's broad shoulders. He spent too much time on the perimeter and shot just 42.6% from the field. He did manage to average 12.6 points, 8.6 rebounds, and 4.1 assists, but he launched 101 threes (making 37). On a team that was already perimeter-heavy, Green would have been better served to stay in the paint more. Despite my grousing, he did finish the season with a triple-double in the Spartans' first round loss to UCLA. His presence will allow teams to draft shooting guards because they know they will get plenty of assists from a forward slot.
7. Austin Rivers, freshman guard, Duke Blue Devils
When I asked former CFHI writer and CBS recruiting savant Jeff Borzello who he thought the top freshman would be in terms of fantasy production, he said Rivers. Despite the presence of Seth Curry and Andre Dawkins, Rivers should get plenty of shots with all of the offense that coach Mike Krzyzewski is looking to replace. Perhaps I should have listened to Jeff, but I think Davis will be more productive. I tend to rate shooting guards a bit lower and I don't think Rivers will accrue that many assists. Doc's son should still lead the Blue Devils and may even lead the conference in scoring (although certain Duke haters are free to disagree).
8. Dee Bost, guard, Mississippi State Bulldogs
Because his season was cut short by a suspension, Bost is often overlooked. Prior to 2010-11, Bost dipped his toe in the NBA draft process and found the water to be too chilly. He tried to back out and did so too late. Upon his return on Jan. 8, Bost averaged 15.3 points and 6.3 assists, which is the top passing rate of returning Tier 1 players. The 6-foot-2 senior did not shoot well (38.9% from the field, 33.6% on threes), but the layoff may have contributed to his bricks. With Renardo Sidney, UTEP transfer Arnett Moultrie, and freshman stud Rodney Hood on the front line, Bost should have plenty of passing options and lanes to the basket.
9. Trevor Mbakwe, forward, Minnesota Golden Gophers
Last year was supposed to be the year of the Big Ten. With four of the top ten players in 2011-12 (at least in my mind), it looks to be another banner year in the Midwest. Mbakwe had not played since 2007-08 due to a transfer from Marquette and legal issues that kept him from suiting up. The 6-foot-8 senior appeared to shake off the rust quickly. He used his aggressiveness and athleticism to rack up double-doubles in his first three games of the 2010-11 season and finished with 19 double-doubles. Ralph Sampson III returns, but the Golden Gopher backcourt will be in flux. There will likely be plenty of missed shots for Mbakwe to go after.
10. Tyler Zeller, forward/center, North Carolina Tar Heels
I was going to throw the Pac 12 a bone and put UCLA center Joshua Smith in the tenth slot, but then I read this story. I also don't have a Big East representative, although I considered Vincent Council and Kevin Jones. In the end, I came back to the prohibitive top team in the country and their center eligible player (although I could have easily gone with John Henson instead). Zeller is not flashy and his 15.7 points and 7.2 rebounds don't really make my mouth water, but centers are really hard to find (thus, even considering Smith). The seven-foot senior was the Tar Heels' best offensive option in the NCAA tournament and averaged 25.8 points and 8.8 rebounds as the Tar Heels went to the Elite Eight.