I have a confession that will surprise no one: I am a fantasy college hoops junkie. I realized this when I looked at the calendar. It's only the middle of July, but I am already excited about the 2011-12 season. The current sports landscape with lockouts in the NFL (now over) and NBA has helped push my mind toward college hoops, but I might have the same feelings even if sports coverage wasn't all about lawyers and how best to split millions of dollars. In any case, I have been contacting long time members of my college basketball league, the Big Chief Challenge, to see if they are ready for a new year. It seems that I am not alone in my junkidom. By the way, if you are interested in joining the Challenge, you can email me. We should be opening up sign ups in the next couple of weeks.
Of course, it is not enough just to play in a fantasy league, you want to win it. In that light, I am going to share a few of my drafting secrets that have come to light in the last five years. My fantasy draft template is not completely different across various sports (which might explain my lack of success in fantasy football), but I have a few tips to share even if sharing them will prevent me from winning in future years.
Just to provide a summary of the rules. Rosters are comprised of ten players from Tier 1 conferences (ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Big East, Pac 10, SEC). Weekly head-to-head battles are fought with three stats (points, rebounds, assists) and each stat is scored individually. If you win all three categories, you get an extra "sweep" win (or loss, if you lose all three). Starting lineups are made up of two guards, two forwards, a center, and a utility player, one of the starting six has to be a freshman. Like my favorite games these rules are simple to learn, hard to master.
Tip 1: Be conservative early
Fantasy leagues are rarely won in the first round of the draft, but they can be lost. If you blow your first round pick, you are going to have to get really lucky with some of your later picks. In fantasy baseball, this means that I always go a slugger in the first round because they hold more year-to-year value. In football, I always take running backs. In fantasy college hoops, I prefer to take upperclassmen than high potential underclassmen. I may miss out on some one-and-done prospects using this system, but I'd rather have a consistent producer on whom I can surround with future draft picks.
Tip 2: Be careful with freshmen
As a corollary to tip one, I tend not to roll the dice with freshmen in the first couple of rounds. I went against this rule in the Big Chief Invitational last year by selecting Brandon Knight with my first pick. My reasoning went along the lines of that I wasn't wowed by who was available and Knight was following a pretty heady path of Calipari lead guards that dominated play. If I am going to take a freshman, I want to be sure that he will get playing time, which depends on his team's roster and his coach. I'd consider any freshman from Kentucky, but first year players at Kansas and North Carolina can wait.
Tip 3: Don't wait on centers
Center is the hardest roster spot to fill. Each year it seems the list of decent available pivotmen shrinks. Tall players these days would rather be Magic Johnson than Kareem Abdul-Jabbar. I have no problem with that, but it does make finding a C quite difficult. Some leagues have done away with this requirement, but I like a challenge. In other fantasy sports, I tend not to worry about positional scarcity, but that does not true for the Big Chief Challenge. Other than Jared Sullinger and Tyler Zeller, the top returning centers this year are players like Festus Ezeli and Joshua Smith. Neither player will likely be a first option for their team's offense. If you can get a reliable center early, you are a large step ahead of the game. When I won the Masters Challenge, it was largely because of the (immense) presence of Santa Clara center John Bryant.
Tip 4: Don't undervalue assists. Don't overvalue points
Because of the league format assists are equally important as points and rebounds, but low scoring point guards are often ignored. With this knowledge, I usually try to get two point guards who will help me cruise to an easy win in dimes. Point guards are worth much more than shooting guards. Forwards, like Draymond Green, who can accrue assists are also extra valuable. I much prefer players who can get rebounds and assists to those who are merely scorers.
Tip 5: Be lucky (or don't be unlucky)
Luck is an underappreciated aspect of fantasy leagues. I believe fantasy football is approximately 75% luck. Fantasy college basketball is a little less than that, but there is still plenty of luck. For example, one player swept both the Big Chief and Masters (Tier 2) Challenges in 2009, but he had the misfortune to draft Robbie Hummel in the first round last year before he got hurt. That's unlucky. The regular season winner in the Big Chief Invitational was buoyed by Sullinger as his center, but the Buckeye big had a one-game week in the tournament. The owner was ousted. That was bad luck too. In other words, if you want to win, it is better to be good and lucky.