I’ll admit it: sometimes the Internet moves too fast for me. Last week’s NBA draft now seems like ancient history on the Internet, but it has been bouncing around my head and I have some reactions (or perhaps reactions to other people’s reactions). While I don’t think a pick-by-pick is necessary or even worthwhile, I would like to examine the fit of some players on various teams.
I am a little surprised by own reaction about one player: Kemba Walker. On draft lottery night, I had him falling to 14 and almost out of the lottery. It seems to me that Walker’s value has been on a roller coaster ride: from being overrated at the beginning of the college season last year as Connecticut won the tournament in Maui, to settling off as Connecticut lost some games in the Big East regular season, to the Huskies’ NCAA tournament championship on which Walker was the team’s most lethal weapon.
Walker’s value started to settle back down with his official measurements. I’ll never really understand why NBA teams value measurements so much (or maybe that is a myth perpetrated by the media, but it doesn’t seem to be – unlike, say, players returning to school enhancing their draft stock). It would seem to me that measurements and workouts should only be a very small part of scouting, but maybe because media people have nothing else to write about, they become more pronounced. It’s pretty clear that Walker can play very well despite his lack of stature. He may not be Steve Nash when it comes to court vision, but he may also be underrated in that regard because he was playing with underwhelming frontcourt players (even though Ater Majok was picked in the second round by the Lakers – a curious pick).
If you look at Charlotte’s roster, there’s little reason to think that Walker couldn’t be their best player by midseason (and even less reason to think that Michael Jordan will ever be in contention for Executive of the Year). Yes, he is blocked on the depth chart by D.J. Augustin, who is the team’s leading returning scorer at 14.4 points. I think Walker is a better player than Augustin. He’s a better shooter, better at running the offense, and is not a downgrade on defense. The two guards are too small to play together, so it will be up to coach Paul Silas to figure out the future of the franchise. If he chooses Walker, he’d be my pick to be Rookie of the Year and could give the Bobcats a signature player for the first time in franchise history.
One more note on the Bobcats and the three-team trade with Sacramento and Milwaukee. As a Bucks fan, I liked the trade. I see Stephen Jackson as a marginal upgrade on John Salmons. Getting rid of Corey Maggette is addition by subtraction. He won’t help the Bobcats, but may continue to be a good scorer on a lousy team. (By the way, there doesn’t seem to be a site that provides the win-loss record for a player’s teams. My guess is that Maggette’s teams have a career winning percentage around 30%.) As for the pick of Tobias Harris, I have no real opinion. My guess is that he’ll spend at least part of the season in the NBDL.
The second and third picks were curious to me. It seems that both Derrick Williams and Enes Kanter landed on teams that are fairly stocked at their position (maybe somewhat like Walker). The Timberwolves could have one of the best trios of frontcourt players of Williams, Michael Beasley, and Kevin Love. Ricky Rubio will have a lot of passing options, which is probably for the best since he can’t shoot. I’ll be interested to see how Kurt Rambis or whoever the next Timberwolves coach is works that out. Kanter will have to earn time behind Al Jefferson and Derrick Favors. I still think Kanter will be the best player in this draft, but he won’t have much of an opportunity to play until things shake out in Utah.
A lot has been made of the 5-6-7 teams taking flyers on international players, while players like Brandon Knight and Kawhi Leonard fell. Speaking of Leonard, I like the way he fits in San Antonio and he could pass Richard Jefferson on the depth chart sooner rather than later. I think the international cartel is something of a trickle down effect. There were no international players selected in the lottery in 2010 and only Rubio was selected in 2009. It remains to be seen how Rubio works out, but these international picks seem riskier than other high picks. Danilo Gallinari from the 2008 seems like he will work out to be a solid rotation player, but players like Yi Jianlian (the sixth pick from 2007) and Mohammed Saer (tenth pick from 2006) have done little in the league. There is also the chance that the player becomes the next Fran Vazquez and never crosses the pond. My guess is that two of the three players (Jonas Valanciunas, Jan Vesely, and Bismack Biyombo). I don’t think the bevy of international picks were a referendum on college basketball. Talent ebbs and flows, and this just didn’t happen to be a draft with that clear superstar-type guy.