For a Milwaukee Bucks’ fan (which I count myself as one of the few, the beleaguered), there is no more exciting night than the NBA draft lottery. While the Bucks did not win this year’s lottery with their 1.0% chance, they should have more competition in their division with Cleveland snagging both the first and fourth picks. The first pick came via the Baron Davis trade, so it would have gone to the Clippers. Of course, Los Angeles’ other team has Mo Williams, so why would they need a point guard? Don’t answer that – just an old habit about picking on poor Mo from when I wrote about the Bucks for fantasy basketball. This year’s draft is fairly weak. There are no sure fire players here, but the Cavs should be able to help themselves. Let’s take a lottery night spin through the top 14 picks.
1. Cleveland Cavaliers – PG Kyrie Irving, Duke Blue Devils
A turf toe injury limited Irving to 11 games in his only season as a Blue Devil, but the 6-foot-2 freshman looked like he had the goods in just a third of a season. I happen to think Irving will not be a superstar in the NBA. He’ll be very good, but somewhere in the Andrew Bogut range of top picks. Not to knock on my Aussie center, but Bogut has not been an All-Star in his first six seasons in the league. This is also not a complete knock on Irving because the point guard position is loaded in the NBA. Irving will not be in the John Wall-Derrick Rose class (to name two former top picks), but he will be a top ten point guard. One other point: when was the last time a team with a traditional point guard won the NBA championship? Other than Rajon Rondo three years ago (and while he was a nice player for the Celtics that year, he was hardly the key to their team) and Tony Parker in the Spurs’ run, the position has not garnered many rings. Maybe Rose or Russell Westbrook will win this year, but I think the position is overrated.
2. Minnesota Timberwolves – Enes Kanter, C, Turkey (Ineligible Kentucky recruit)
Perhaps it would make more sense for the Timberwolves to select yet another point guard, I believe Kanter will be the best player from this draft. I don’t believe this because he dominated Jared Sullinger in the Nike Pro Hoop Summit a couple of years ago, but because John Calipari doesn’t recruit stiffs. Kentucky made a strong bid to get Kanter eligible, but failed when it was obvious he had received compensation from a Turkish pro team that was more than a per diem. I don’t think that reflects poorly on Kanter (who wouldn’t want to play for money?), but the NCAA’s silly rules. In any case, Kanter appears to be a rebounding force with a low post game. It is also easy to compare Kanter to current Minnesota center Darko Milicic, one of the greatest busts of NBA draft history. Yet, the things that the two Europeans have in common is that they are European and not well known to the common fan. It’s a shame Kanter couldn’t play as a Wildcat this year. He would have been fun to watch. If the Timberwolves ever get on TV, he’ll be fun to watch next to Kevin Love.
3. Utah Jazz – Derrick Williams, SF, Arizona Wildcats
With Andrei Kirilenko’s contract finally coming off the books, the Jazz actually have a need a small forward. The 6-foot-8 Williams has more of a power forward’s game in a small forward’s body, but he showed amazing efficiency in his sophomore season. The Pac 10 player of the year hit an incredible 56.8% of his three-pointers and 59.5% of his shots from the field. He is very athletic and should be a fine finisher. He only corralled 8.3 rebounds, and I don’t think he excels in any facet of the game. In a frontcourt with Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap, he’ll have more support than he did at Arizona, but I have my doubts about whether he’ll become a superstar.
4. Cleveland Cavaliers – Kawhi Leonard, SF, San Diego State Aztecs
Even at the fourth pick, there is no clear player here for the Cavaliers to take. With the point guard settled for the foreseeable future with Irving, the Cavs might as well give him a high flying running mate. Leonard displayed a diverse array of skills, but his rebounding projects as his asset. The 6-foot-7 sophomore hauled down 10.7 rebounds. Leonard has huge hands, but still managed to hit 75.9% of his free throws. He is a good defensive player, but his outside shot needs work. He wasn’t shy about hoisting threes, but made 29.1% of his long range shots. Leonard should get plenty of playing time as the first Aztec drafted since 2002 (Randy Holcomb by the Spurs at the end of the second round).
5. Toronto Raptors – Jan Vesely, PF, Czech Republic
According to Chad Ford’s evaluation, Vesely is a good athlete who should fit well into the Raptor frontcourt with Andrea Bargnani and Ed Davis (who is much better than I thought he would be). Toronto is an international city, and Vesely would be able to play with Jose Calderon who had a rough season, but is signed to big money for the next two years. Brandon Knight could be a consideration here, but I think the Raptors swing for the fences with Vesely who could mature into a very solid offensive performer.
6. Washington Wizards – Marcus Morris, PF, Kansas Jayhawks
The Wizards have John Wall. He is a nice building block, but the team needs a lot of help. Andray Blatche is signed long term, but I don’t think he is the answer as a top option for a team that wants to win. Jordan Crawford scored well down the stretch, but his field goal percentage was lousy, so I don’t think he is a long term answer. I was very impressed with Morris and how unselfish the Kansas offense was in general. Morris would fit well into that Rashard Lewis-sized hole in the frontcourt and bring his diverse array of skills (both offensive and defense) to the Wizards. One note on Kansas: despite their continual presence at the top of the college basketball heap, they have not produced an NBA player of note in the Bill Self era. The last All-Star to be produced by the Jayhawks was Paul Pierce and he was drafted in 1998.
7. Sacramento Kings – Brandon Knight, PG, Kentucky Wildcats
Like Irving, Knight was hobbled by his antecedents. Wall and Rose, who ran previous iterations of the Calipari offense, are singular players. Knight is very good, but he is not in that all-world class. With the Kings, who have another Calipari player in Tyreke Evans (not to mention DeMarcus Cousins), Knight would be on a team that could use his skills. Knight averaged 17.6 points and was only held to single digits three times (once in November against Connecticut, and twice in the NCAA tournament in games in which he scored big buckets anyway). Like Evans, he is kind of a scoring point guard. Unlike Evans, he has excellent ball handling skills and could provide a steadiness that the Kings have lacked recently.
8. Detroit Pistons – Bismack Biyombo, C, Spain
This just seems right. The pistons are going to be stuck in mediocrity as long as they are giving Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva $20 million per year, but perhaps they can start to revive their defensive presence with this pick. The 7-foot Biyombo may be this generation’s Ben Wallace. Speaking of Wallace, the 36-year-old is still on the Piston roster, so he could tutor the 18-year-old for a year. Biyombo may be more of a mirage than anything and scouts may be overhyped about his big game in the Nike Pro Hoop Summit (the same game Kanter dominated a year ago). Yet at this point, the Pistons may make the pick and hope that Biyombo and Greg Monroe can be a new set of twin towers.
9. Charlotte Bobcats – Tristan Thompson, PF, Texas Longhorns
What do you get for the team that needs everything? I’d go best player available and that might be Texas’ Thompson. The Longhorns surprised a lot of pundits by being a better team with less talent than their 2009-10 edition. Thompson anchored the Longhorn defense with 7.8 rebounds and 2.4 blocks. He doesn’t have prototypical NBA size at 6-foot-8, 225 lbs, but he looks like he can add muscle to his frame and be a nice interior defender with the potential to be a decent offensive player. If the Bobcats keep Paul Silas on the bench, Thompson will have a good coach to learn from. The team has a pretty horrible draft history, so don’t expect too much from Thompson.
10. Milwaukee Bucks – Chris Singleton, SF, Florida State Seminoles
The Bucks had an injury-plagued season. Every major contributor missed hunks of the season with injuries, but if they can get lucky with their health in 2011-12, they should be back in the playoffs. The aforementioned Bogut is the key. He was playing one-handed for the most part this season. With health, the Bucks should be deep as well. If there is one thing I know about Scott Skiles, it is he prizes defense. Therefore, Singleton is a sensible pick because he is already a hellacious perimeter defender. If you team him with Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, the Buck defense will get even better. If John Salmons and Carlos Delfino are healthy, the Bucks have some shooters, so why not pile on the defense?
11. Golden State Warriors – Markieff Morris, PF, Kansas Jayhawks
Why is it when twin brothers have NBA level talent, one concentrates on offense and the other concentrates of defense? That certainly seems the case with Brook and Robin Lopez. And what about the Collinses (Jason and Jared)? OK, neither of them seems to be offensively gifted. Markieff was relegated to defensive twin with Kansas, but he has a lot of skills much like Marcus. He is better defensively than David Lee already and could team with Ekpe Udoh that to give Golden State a defensive orientation that they have never had.
12. Utah Jazz – Jimmer Fredette, SG, BYU Cougars
Like the Biyombo pick, this just seems right. I don’t believe a team should ever make a pick for marketing reasons, but Fredette fits a backcourt need for Utah. Gordon Hayward may eventually be a nice piece of the puzzle for the Jazz (and he had a great finish with 34 points in the last game of the season), but Fredette is the best shooter in the draft. While the comparison to J.J. Redick in terms of draft potential (or lack thereof) seems rather pat, we could also look at him through rose-colored glasses. Why couldn’t he be this generation’s Reggie Miller? He already has incredible range on his jumper and is a fearless shooter. With the aforementioned frontcourt, the Jazz would have plenty of muscle to set picks for Fredette and he could be a sneaky rookie player.
13. Phoenix Suns – Kenneth Faried, PF, Morehead State Eagles
The Suns boast the most small forwards in the NBA. They have overtaken the Atlanta Hawks in terms of love for the small forward position. While they will likely decline Vince Carter’s $18 million team option (and he is more of a shooting guard than a three anyway), they still have Josh Childress, Hakim Warrick, Jared Dudley, and maybe Grant Hill to stock the three. Therefore, they need some muscle to go along with Marcin Gortat and Robin Lopez. Enter Faried, the NCAA’s all-time leading rebounder. As a four-year player, he comes in as a more polished product and would rebound immediately. The rest of his game might lag behind, but he would fit a great need for the Suns.
14. Houston Rockets – Kemba Walker, PG, Connecticut Huskies
It was an incredible year for Walker. He grabbed headlines early by helping the Huskies beat Michigan State (then a Final Four hyped team) and Kentucky in a Hawaii and finished the season with an NCAA championship. He has NBA level quickness and shot making ability, if not NBA size (just 6-foot-1). While I don’t know if he fits a need for the Rockets, he is the best player available and every team could use another shooter. I don’t think he has great court vision, but he could be a Jason Terry-like guard (with speed) for years to come.