Other Previews: First Four - East - West - Southeast -Southwest
This year's NCAA tournament features the most teams ever! Rather than last year's not that significant 65 teams, we are blessed with the regal number of 68. The more, the merrier! Some nuts would even like to see 96 teams, but the common consensus is any number bigger than 68 is just ridiculous. In any case, the tournament starts on Tuesday, has games on Wednesday, and begins in earnest on Thursday with what we used to call the first round. Unlike past years, there is no clear favorite. We start with the First Four (which may subsequently be the First Eight, 16, and 32 in future years).
First Four (Dayton)
Tuesday, March 15
UNC-Asheville (Big South Champion) vs.
This play in game could go either way. Both teams are pretty evenly matched. Although whoever wins this game gets the joy of playing #1 Pittsburgh and getting their heads kicked in. But, first lets talk about this game at hand. Both teams are not very good versus teams in the top 150; UALR is 2-7 with an average scoring margin of -14.0. UALR vs teams ranked between 201-250, are 6-3, with an average of 3.8 points in the scoring margin. We predict that UNC Asheville will be the lucky team that moves on to play Pittsburgh by a score of 70-63.
Arkansas-Little Rock (Sun Belt Champion)
The Trojans had a middling season in the Sun Belt and finished the regular season with a 7-9 record in conference (19-16 overall). They lost their last three regular season games before the Sun Belt tournament in which they caught fire to knock out South Alabama, Arkansas State, Middle Tennessee State, and North Texas in four days. Solomon Bozeman, a South Florida transfer, led the team with 16.8 points during the season and 22.0 points in the tournament. He hit 46.4% of his three-pointers. The team's second leading scorer, Alex Garcia-Mendoza, also hit 40% of his threes, so this team can get hot from outside the arc. That said, they should be happy if they can beat UNC-Asheville.
UAB (Conference USA) vs.
Apparently, the regular season still counts for something. The Blazers were beaten in their first game of the Conference USA tournament by East Carolina, but had enough of a profile to still squeak into the tournament's First Four. UAB did have the best record in the Conference USA regular season with 12 wins and beat everyone except Memphis (who swept both games) and Tulsa (who they only met once). The Blazers have three interesting players from a fantasy standpoint: leading scorer Jamarr Sanders (17.7 points, 4.6 rebounds), double-double man Cameron Moore (14.3 points, 9.4 rebounds), and the nation's leading assist man Aaron Johnson (12.0 points, 7.7 assists). Johnson scored 39 points in the loss to ECU. The Blazers played one ACC team: Duke. If their big three play well, they can beat Clemson for the right to play West Virginia.
Clemson (ACC)
Finishing fourth in the ACC and making it into the NCAA Tournament might be enough for the Tigers, and their fan base. First year head coach Brad Brownell has done wonders with a team many picked to be near the bottom of their conference, and their reward is a “play-in” game against UAB, with the right to meet West Virginia on the line. The Tigers are led by point guard Demontez Stitt (14.7 points, 3.4 assists) and forward Jerai Grant (12.1 points, 6.7 rebounds, 56.8% fg), but the team’s better play down the stretch can be credited to the emergence of guard Andre Young and forward Milton Jennings. Young has been slightly more consistent lately, and gives Clemson a legitimate third scoring option (10.8 points), but it’s Jennings who is finally starting to play to his potential. The former five-star recruit has scored in double-figures in three of his last four games, and his continued emergence could have Clemson challenging the Mountaineers. It’s hard to see them making it past Kentucky and into the second weekend of the tournament, but a close game against a #5 seed from the Big East shouldn’t surprise anyone.
Wednesday, March 16
UTSA (Southland Champion) vs.
The Road Runners were the seventh seed in the Southland tournament. They ran past the top three seeds in the Southland to win the championship behind strong performances from senior guard Devin Gibson. Gibson had his second triple-double in the opener against Northwestern State in which UTSA won on a dunk by Jeromie Hill with two seconds remaining. Gibson, who led the team in scoring (17.0) and assists (5.6), represents the past for the squad, but Hill, a 6-foot-8 Aussie, may be the future. The freshman provided 13.6 points and 6.6 rebounds, and scored 25 points in two of the three tournament wins (he scored seven points in the win over Sam Houston State). The team was just 19-13 overall this season and lost to the second worst team in the SWAC, Samford, on Dec. 20. Perhaps Gibson can beat the Hornets by himself.
Alabama State (SWAC Champion)
Another play-in game, this time against talented UTSA. Alabama State is led by Tramayne Moorer, Tramaine Butler and Ivory White. UTSA is led by Devin Gibson who is averaging 17.0 points, 5.4 rebounds and 5.6 assists per game. UTSA vs teams ranked over 250 are 8-5 with an average scoring margin of 3.5 points per game. This could be really ugly game. I mean what is the point anyway? The winner of this game goes on to play the #1 overall ranked Ohio State who will probably clean their clocks. We are going to have to flip a coin for this game; UTSA by a slim margin: 70-67.
USC (Pac 10) vs.
The Trojans are peaking at the right time as they won six of their last eight games to sneak into the First Four. While their record is mediocre, they boast some nice wins over Texas, Tennessee, Arizona, UCLA, and Washington. They are an elite defensive team giving up only 62.8 points and allowing opponents to shoot just 41% from the floor. They rely on forwards Nikola Vucevic (10.2 rebounds) and Alex Stepheson (9.2 rebounds) to clean the glass while forward Marcus Simmons, the Pac 10 Defensive Player of the Year, shuts down the best wing player. They aren’t a great offensive team but they do have a go-to player in Vucevic who averaged 17.3 points. He has recorded 21 double-doubles this year and could be on the verge of becoming a household name if the Trojans can make a run. Depth is a major concern as they only go six deep so foul trouble could be an issue. They also are a poor free throw shooting team (65%) so closing out games won’t be easy. They have to be happy to be included in the Field of 68 but it will be tough for them to win three games in six days to advance to the Sweet 16. The Trojans First Four opponent will be VCU. The Rams enter the tournament losers of five of their last eight games and are a nice matchup for the Trojans. They attempt almost 23 three-pointers a game and get outrebounded by almost four a game. The Trojans frontline should be licking their chops. Georgetown is tough matchup on the perimeter but the Hoyas will have their hands full dealing with the inside game of the Trojans. Beating Purdue on Sunday would be an almost impossible task considering their lack of depth and the extra travel required of a First Four team.
VCU (Colonial)
Many were surprised the NCAA Selection Committee included VCU in the expanded field of 68, but the Rams will be out to silence their doubters as they return to the NCAA's for the first time in the post-Eric Maynor era. VCU finished fourth in a strong CAA conference that sends three teams to the big dance for the first time. After a sloppy 3-5 record in the month of February, the Rams were able to piece things together in the CAA tournament, knocking off George Mason and nearly completing an improbable 18-point comeback against eventual tournament champion Old Dominion. The Rams are lead by Wake Forest transfer Jamie Skeen who averaged 15.3 points and 7.5 rebounds. Senior point guard Joey Rodriguez, who dished out 17 assists in an early season victory, is another player to watch for the Rams. VCU was the topic of some heated Selection Sunday conversation, but the Rams have played their best ball this season when they have something to prove. They'll have the opportunity to prove they belong against USC in Dayton on Wednesday night with an opportunity to face Georgetown in Chicago.