Other Previews: First Four - East - West - Southeast -Southwest
If you like sweet motion offenses, then the Southwest regional is the place for you. The top of chart is Kansas, who rarely overdribbles and keeps the ball moving to find the weak point of the opponents defense. The Morris twins will likely take the throne of best twins from Brook and Robin Lopez. And they are only juniors. Notre Dame's run in the Big East propped them up to a two-seed and they run the "burn" offense to burn opponents. Purdue has two fantasy titans and Vanderbilt can score with anyone. Looking a bit deeper in the conference, check out Kenneth Faried who is the NCAA's all-time leading rebounder. He could cause some headaches for Louisville.
SOUTHWEST (San Antonio)
1. Kansas (Big 12 Champion)
The Big 12 regular season and tournament champions enter the tournament coming off a really good game against Texas. One could say that this game had been circled on the Kansas locker room calendar ever since the January loss at home to Texas. Whether that was the case or not, the Jayhawks finally put a full game together and fired on all cylinders. The biggest criticism of this team is that they are somewhat emotionally immature. This starts with the twin brother front line in Marcus Morris (17.3 points, 7.2 rebounds) and Markieff Morris (13.6 points, 8.2 rebounds). Marcus, the Big 12 Player of the Year, and his twin brother have both let their emotions get the best of them at times during the season. As the leaders of the team, this immaturity has shown itself in not getting "up" for games that aren't perceived as big games, etc. If Kansas can make every game a big game and get their emotions behind them, Kansas can be very dangerous. They have already showed they have the talent. This talent includes forward Thomas Robinson who is averaging 8.0 points and 6.5 boards coming off the bench. The final piece to the puzzle is consistent point guard play. Whether that comes from Tyshawn Taylor (9.1 points, 4.5 assists) or Elijah Johnson.
2. Notre Dame (Big East)
Mike Brey's team had a good argument for a one-seed thanks to 11 Top 50 wins on the season, but they'll have to settle for being a two. Ben Hansbrough has been outstanding, leading the team in scoring and assists and the ball will be in his hands in most late-game situations. Tim Abromaitis has played well at the three, and with Scott Martin, Tyrone Nash and Carleton Scott the Irish have a very good starting lineup. Reserves Eric Atkins (point guard) and Jack Cooley (power forward) also play important roles for Mike Brey's team, and when the Irish are clicking offensively they're a handful. How far Notre Dame goes will depend on how well they find quality shots, as their struggles in doing so cost them in their Big East semifinal loss to Louisville.
3. Purdue (Big Ten)
The Boilermakers have lost their last two games, but in disappointing fashion. First, they lost their regular season finale at lowly Iowa. Then, they got blown out to Michigan State in the Big Ten quarterfinals. Purdue opens with St. Peter’s on Friday, and could play a struggling Georgetown team in the next round. JaJuan Johnson and E'Twaun Moore are both seniors this season and have not gotten past the Sweet Sixteen in their careers. The key for Purdue is getting a third scoring option to step up. Expect guard Lewis Jackson to take this responsibility and get Purdue into an intriguing in-state matchup in the Sweet Sixteen between Purdue and Notre Dame.
4. Louisville (Big East)
Smoke and mirrors? If you're looking for elite NBA-caliber talent then that may be the case for Rick Pitino's team. But there's some talent in the Louisville rotation with guards Preston Knowles and Peyton Siva leading the way. Knowles averages 14.8 points per game and Siva leads the team with just over five assists per game, and their speed also makes them a handful on the defensive end. Kyle Kuric and Chris Smith are two wings who can do a variety of things on the floor, and Mike Marra played well in New York last week. But the question for Louisville, especially when factoring in that their first round matchup is against a Morehead State team that boasts the greatest rebounder of the modern era (Kenneth Faried), is their interior play. Leading rebounder Rakeem Buckles is done for the season with a torn ACL, meaning that the triumvirate of Gorgui Sy Dieng, Terrence Jennings and Stephan Van Treese will need to play well. If they do the job defensively and on the boards Louisville can advance, but a short stay would be in order if not.
5. Vanderbilt (SEC)
If momentum is a barometer of tourney success, then the Commodores have a reason to be concerned. Vanderbilt lost four out of their final seven games including two losses to Florida and one loss to Kentucky. Trending aside, Vanderbilt has a solid nucleus of talent including All-SEC first teamer sophomore John Jenkins who led the conference in scoring with a 19.5 ppg average. They also get 15.1 ppg and 5.4 rpg from junior forward Jeffery Taylor and center Festus Ezeli adds 12.8 ppg and 6.2 rebounds to go along with 2.6 blocks. The team was top-30 nationally in scoring with an average of 76.2 points per game keyed by lights-out three point shooting, making 37.0% of their three point shots (257-695). They defend the three equally well, holding opponents to an SEC-leading 30.6% three point average. The Commodores are one of those teams that could go on a long stretch and just as easily disappear in the first round. They have one of toughest matchups as #5 seed in the tournament against a #12 seeded Richmond squad that could have easily been ranked higher. They may get past the first round but based on their performance against top teams they will likely see their tournament run ended by Louisville in round two.
6. Georgetown (Big East)
The Hoyas' hopes hinge on the left hand of senior point guard Chris Wright. They looked lost on the court without their floor general and outside of Austin Freeman the Hoyas lacked consistent scoring down the stretch. Jason Clark can be that third option and he definitely was early in the year. The good news for them is that they draw a team that will have already played a game (USC or VCU) and they'll need to use Thursday for travel (Dayton to Chicago isn't a terrible distance, however). But it will also be important for Georgetown to get Julian Vaughn to snap out of his prolonged funk. He's made just one field goal over the last four games and looked to have lost all willingness to shoot the basketball in their loss to Connecticut in the Big East Championship. With or without Wright the senior will need to step up and be accounted for. Nate Lubick and Hollis Thompson will need to be key contributors if the Hoyas are to be a factor, and with some very good defensive teams in their section of the bracket someone outside of their big three has to step up.
7. Texas A&M (Big 12)
The Aggies enter the tournament without a lot of fanfare. They don't have any outstanding wins, but they also don't have any outstanding losses. The Aggies are a very smart team that doesn't beat themselves. They may not be the most athletic or the fastest team on the court, but they are fundamentally very good and an opposing team will need to bring it's A game to beat them. Led by guard B.J. Holmes, who is averaging 9.8 points and 3.2 assists per game and forward Khris Middleton14.3 points, 5.2 boards, Texas A&M will not be an easy out for Florida State or Notre Dame. Realistically, the Aggies shouldn't get past Notre Dame, but they can definitely give them a game.
8. UNLV (Mountain West)
Quietly, the Runnin' Rebels had a very impressive season. They only lost eight times and only one of those losses came against a team that did not make the NCAA tournament (Colorado State). They were unable to solve San Diego State and BYU for five of their losses (as well as Louisville and UCSB in the non-conference). On the plus side, they were able to beat both Wisconsin and Kansas State, and beat New Mexico twice (by a total of four points, but wins are wins). Prior to getting beat by the Aztecs for the third and, presumably final, time, UNLV had won six straight. Guard Tre'Von Willis led the team with 13.5 points and scored 15 or more points in four of his last five games. The 6-foot-4 senior also provided 3.6 rebounds and 3.6 assists. Chace Stanback also provided 13.0 points and 6.0 rebounds. The Rebs lost as the eight-seed in last year's tournament to Northern Iowa, but they should stand a good chance to beat slumping Illinois.
9. Illinois (Big Ten)
After falling outside the bubble last season, Illinois made it into the tournament this year. While Illinois may have not lived up to their high preseason expectations, an upset in the tournament could completely change that. Illinois opens the tournament with UNLV, a team that is coached by former Illinois coach, Lon Kruger. If Illinois can get past the Runnin’ Rebels, the Fighting Illini will likely take on Kansas in the next round. Another former Illinois coach, Bill Self, coaches Kansas. Illinois is a senior-heavy team, including Demetri McCamey, Mike Davis, and Mike Tisdale. The current Illinois senior class has not won an NCAA Tournament game in their careers. If they are unable to do so, they would be the first class since 1980 to not win an NCAA Tournament game in their four years at Illinois.
10. Florida State (ACC)
It’s a good thing the ‘Noles solidified their tournament resume in January and February, because FSU has alternated wins and losses over their past six contests. Other than rebounding (39.0 per game, 13th nationally,) Florida Sate really doesn’t do a lot of things well. Their leading scorer and rebounder, forward Chris Singleton (13.8 points, 7.1 boards) has missed the past six games while recovering from a broken foot. He worked out hard, and was a surprise DNP against Virginia Tech in the second round of the ACC Tournament, and his return should be a big boost come Friday. Derwin Kitchen has been as inconsistent as they come, and you need look no further than his last two games. 17 points and 13 boards against N.C. State, followed by two points and seven boards against VT. He’ll need a lot more of those double-double type nights if FSU hopes to extend their season for more than a game.
11. USC/VCU winner
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12. Richmond (A10 Champion)
Winners of seven straight, including three in Atlantic City in route to an A-10 Tournament Championship, the Spiders look like they got the short end of the seeding stick. Are we to assume they weren’t in the tournament if they hadn’t run the table on the Boardwalk? U of R runs a loose version of the Princeton offense, and switch on every screen defensively. It results in quite a few mismatches, and the Spiders really struggle on the glass. They rank 259th nationally, pulling down just 33.2 boards. The Spiders feature a dynamic duo with point guard Kevin Anderson (16.5 points) and power forward Justin Harper (17.9 points, 7.0 rebounds) but are constantly looking for a third scoring option. If they find one, they are more than capable of pulling off two wins in Denver. This team beat Purdue early in the year, and is the only school to have wins as a #12, 13, 14 and 15 seed.
13. Morehead State (Ohio Valley Champion)
There was some talk of the OVC getting two bids this year, but that was before Murray State crashed out of the conference tournament against Tennessee Tech. While we were denied one more Eagle-Racer clash (the teams split their regular season series), Morehead State and Kenneth Faried were glad to be dancing again. Even though the Eagles face steep odds against Louisville for the second time in three years, Faried should be drafted for first round profits in all fantasy leagues. The 6-foot-8 forward/center led the nation in rebounding at 14.5 points and added 17.6 points, 2.0 steals, and 2.4 blocks. Senior shooting guard Demonte Harper scored 16.4 points and hit 39.9% of his threes, but Faried is the show to watch.
14. Saint Peter's (MAAC Champion)
Peacocks are pretty, but Saint Peter's is going to have to be more than pretty to knock off Purdue. The MAAC champion boasts for double digits scorers, which is two more than the Boilermakers. That is maybe the only way that Saint Peter's betters Purdue. Well, before we hand the Big Ten regular season runner up a bye into the second round, it is worth noting that the Peacocks were able to beat the top two seeds in the MAAC tournament (Fairfield and Iona). Ryan Bacon was the team's leading rebounder at 7.5 boards and provided 10.0 points. Wesley Jenkins led the team with 12.8 points and hit 41.7% of his three-pointers (he only made 30.8% of his two-point shots). Jeron Belin and Nick Leon round out the double digit scorers.
15. Akron (MAC Champion)
Like previous lower seeded teams, Akron was a surprise representative of the MAC. They were the six-seed in the MAC tournament after a 9-7 regular season, but they swept through the top three seeds (Miami, Western Michigan, and top-seeded Kent State) to put on their dancing shoes. My favorite of the Zips is 7-foot center Zeke Marshall who showed off his potential against the Golden Flashes. He had nine points, 13 rebounds, and nine blocks in the championship game. It was by far the best game of the sophomore's career, but if he can stay on the court he could cause Notre Dame some problems. Forward Nikola Cvetinovic led the team in scoring with 11.9 points and grabbed 7.0 rebounds. Brett McKnight rounds out the frontcourt. The 6-foot-6 senior averaged 10.3 points.
16. Boston University (America East Champion)
Swingman John Holland has put the Terriers on the fantasy map by scoring at least 18 points in his last three seasons. Holland used to be paired with guard Corey Lowe, but the guard graduated after last season without ever making an appearance in the NCAA tournament. Holland, who averaged 19.2 points and 5.9 rebounds, will not share the same fate. The Bronx native was only held to single digits twice, most recently on Jan. 2. Darryl Partin, a 6-foot-6 guard who transferred from La Salle, averaged 14.5 points. The Terriers don't stand much of a chance against Kansas who has solidified their problems against opposing low postmen (and BU doesn't have one).