Other Previews: First Four - East - West - Southeast -Southwest
Duke is easily the most polarizing team in college basketball. It is hard to argue with their success whether you love them or hate them. The defending champion should have a tougher road than they did last year, but they are still the favorite to come out of the West. San Diego State earned the right to stay home by only losing twice this season. Kemba Walker is the star of the region, but will he have anything left after running the five-game gauntlet in the Big East tournament? Don't overlook Texas, which had been playing the best ball in the country in January.
WEST (Anaheim)
1. Duke (ACC Champion)
The defending National Champions are one of the more intriguing teams entering the Dance this year. Should we be excited with the ease in which they won the ACC tournament, or still concerned because they had lost two of three to end the regular season? We all know what to expect here. Nolan Smith (21.3 points) and Kyle Singler (17.1 points) will lead a perimeter based offense with the help of Seth Curry (9.5 points) and Andre Dawkins (7.9 points). The key to a repeat is, and always has been, the play of the Blue Devil big men. Sophomore Ryan Kelly really came alive in Greensboro, averaging 9.7 points while shooting 67% (12-for-18). Brothers Mason Plumlee and Miles Plumlee crashed the glass hard over the past three days, and if they continue to play with that intensity, Duke can easily find their way back to the Final Four. We didn’t trust Lance Thomas and Brian Zoubek last year, and it’s hard to trust this trio if they run into a front line like Texas’ in the Sweet 16. But it’s impossible to count this team out. And rumor has it super frosh Kyrie Irving was in uniform 30 minutes before tipoff at the ACC Championship game. He won’t be conditioned to play substantially…but Irving in uniform can’t be a bad thing.
2. San Diego State (Mountain West Champion)
Only one team beat the Aztecs all season. BYU beat them twice, but coach Steve Fisher's team was able to get the last laugh by beating the Cougars for the Mountain West championship. The Mountain West was a good conference, so for San Diego State to run the table (sans Brigham Young) is very impressive. In addition to beating UNLV three times, they knocked off Gonzaga and UCSB (both tournament teams) in the non-conference schedule. The team is filled with bouncy athletes led by double-double machine Kawhi Leonard. The 6-foot-7 sophomore averaged 15.4 points and 10.7 rebounds. He also provided 2.5 assists and has some nice guard-like skills. Malcolm Thomas patrols the paint. The former Pepperdine transfer averaged 11.5 points, 8.2 rebounds, and 2.1 blocks. Guard D.J. Gay is the third double digit scorer at 11.2 points. He led the team with 3.2 assists, but only hit 38.7% of his shots from the field. Keep an eye on Billy White, who averaged 9.9 points, but put 30 points on the Zags early in the season. He has been an Aztec for four years. San Diego State has never won a tournament game, including a first round loss to Tennessee last year, but they should get on the board against North Colorado.
3. Connecticut (Big East Champion)
Based on most projections the Huskies moved up two seed lines thanks to their run through the Big East Championship. But will they have the legs to bounce back, especially considering the fact that they have to play on Thursday? Kemba Walker's credentials go without saying but it's been the supporting cast that's stepped up in the last month. Jeremy Lamb played very well in New York, and with the comparison to Husky great Richard Hamilton coming up before the season started the freshman has just begun to tap his potential. Classmate Shabazz Napier and Roscoe Smith were also solid with Smith shaking off the effects of a concussion suffered against Georgetown to play well against Louisville on Saturday. Inside Alex Oriakhi and Charles Okwandu start but Tyler Olander played well the final two nights against teams that employed a zone defense (Syracuse and Louisville). The big men will be tested by Patriot League POY Mike Muscala but UConn is capable of making a deep run provided their legs are there.
4. Texas (Big 12)
The Longhorns enter the Dance reeling from a rough weekend. First, they lost in the Big 12 Championship game to Kansas, looking like they were never really in the game. Second, the selection committee handed the Horns a four seed while many pundits had pegged them as a two-seed, worst case a three- seed. So, where does Texas go from here? Texas doesn't have time to wallow, they are up against a stout Oakland team that could give them everything they can handle. The Horns have Big 12 Freshman of the Year in forward Tristan Thompson who averaged a team leading 7.8 boards in addition to 13.3 points. But Texas will need swingman Jordan Hamilton (18.6 points, 7.6 rebounds) to continue his scoring ways along with J'Covan Brown who can get hot from the field. But Texas isn't just going to need those players to step forward, they are also going to need to find a way to get that heralded mid-season defense back. In January, Texas was a defensive machine, but this trait has faltered down the stretch. The head of this defense is point guard Dogus Balbay, the lead defender that can harass an opposing point guard into turnovers. If there's one thing this team could use is a chip on it's shoulder. The selection committee delivered in that arena, now if the Longhorns can find a way to turn that into a positive fans could be treated to an interesting Sweet 16 matchup with Duke.
5. Arizona (Pac 10)
The Wildcats lost a heartbreaking overtime contest against Washington in the Pac 10 Tournament final but Tucson is still ecstatic. Arizona won the Pac 10 regular season title and will be returning to the NCAA Tournament after having a 25-year consecutive streak snapped last year. They boast the Pac 10 Player of the Year in Derrick Williams who averaged 19.1 points and 8.1 rebounds but the most impressive part of his game is his efficiency. He averaged a remarkable 2.0 points per shot by shooting 62% from the floor, 60% from beyond the arc, and attempting 8.5 free throws per game. While no other player averages in double-figures, they are a good offensive team that plays off of Williams’s strengths. They shoot 47% from the floor, 40% from beyond the arc, and 75% from the charity stripe. Their only real weakness on offense is that they don’t have a dominant point guard. While they lack height on defense their length and quickness help them overcome that issue. They focus on harassing teams at the three-point line and as a result opponents only shot 29% (fourth best in the country) from beyond the arc. Memphis is an uptempo team that isn’t great on the boards or from beyond the arc so they should be a perfect opening opponent for them. If they can get to the Round of 32, Texas could be an issue due to their size on the inside and their ability to control the boards.
6. Cincinnati (Big East)
Just a month ago the Bearcats were a bubble team with little of note on their resume. But over the last four weeks Mick Cronin's team has played like a group that wants to be a part of the field and Yancy Gates has led the way. Gates leads the team in both scoring and rebounding, and it's been known since his arrival at UC that he has the talent to be an impact player. The question was the effort, something that wasn't there with consistency early in Big East play and now that it is he's a solid bet for a double-double. Point guard Cashmere Wright had his issues during the blowout loss to Notre Dame last week but he's been solid of late as well, and wings Rashad Bishop and Dion Dixon can do a variety of things offensively. Their sixth man is redshirt freshman Sean Kilpatrick, who averages 9.9 points. He shoots 39% from three and had the ability to put points on the board quickly. Inside Ibrahima Thomas starts alongside Gates and is second on the team in rebounding. But they're not a great rebounding team and although they've improved against the press, the Bearcats haven't seen one the caliber of Missouri's.
7. Temple (A10)
The Owls are the definition of “team”, and enter the ‘Dance with five players averaging in double-figures, nine players who play at least ten minutes, and seven who play around 20. Temple is also 33rd nationally in assists per game, handing out 15.5 dimes each time out. They are led on the perimeter by Ramone Allen (14.9 points, 4.3 rebounds, 3.2 assists) and inside by Lavoy Allen (11.8 points, 8.4 rebounds). Questions certainly remain about point guard Juan Fernandez’s consistency (he shot just 34.6%) but he’s averaged 15.0 points and 5.8 assists in his last four. The key here could be the health of forward Scootie Randall, who hasn’t played since Feb. 17, missing seven straight contests. If you are an offensive minded fan, we'd recommend not watching the Owls first-round matchup with in state foe Penn State.
8. Michigan (Big Ten)
Coming into the season, expectations were not high for Michigan. But after starting conference play with a 1-6 record, the Wolverines got going. They open the NCAA Tournament against Tennessee on Friday. These two teams have contrasting styles, as Michigan plays slow and shoots a bunch of three-pointers, while Tennessee plays a fast-paced run-and-gun offense. If Michigan can advance past the Volunteers, they will most likely play Duke in the second round. Michigan defeated Duke two seasons ago in Ann Arbor, in a huge upset. Michigan’s Darius Morris and Tim Hardaway Jr. are the team’s best players. They will need contributions from juniors Stu Douglass and Zack Novak as well, as both these players made it to the NCAA Tournament in their freshman season.
9. Tennessee (SEC)
Tobias Harris was consistently mentioned as a promising freshman player prior to the season, but few people thought he would rise to the heights of his first year as a Volunteer. The 6-foot-8, 226 pound forward was second on the team in scoring (15.2 points) and led the team with 7.3 rebounds. Harris finished the season on an upswing with 22.0 points in his last four games. He also had eight double-doubles and may be the one player on Tennessee that Michigan can't handle. Harris is complemented by 6-foot-7 guard Scotty Hopson, who led the team with 17.4 points. Hopson has a diverse offensive skills, but his fantasy potential is limited by the non-shooting parts of the game. The battle with the Wolverines will be an interesting one and could be a bellwether of the status of Big Ten-SEC underbelly.
10. Penn State (Big Ten)
The Nittany Lions have been on the outside of the bubble for a majority of the season. But with a strong showing in the Big Ten Tournament, they find themselves in the tournament field. Penn State won three straight games in the, before bowing out to Ohio State on Sunday. The Nittany Lions are also senior-heavy, led by Talor Battle, Jeff Brooks, and David Jackson. Talor Battle was a part of the All- Tournament Team in Indianapolis, and will be appearing in his first NCAA Tournament. Penn State opens play with Temple on Thursday, and would likely have to get past San Diego State if they want to make it to the second weekend of the tournament. Penn State’s defense was impressive in the Big Ten Tournament, giving up an average of 46.3 points in their three wins.
11. Missouri (Big 12)
Missouri arrives to the tournament with a large question mark. Are they better than their seed? One would argue that if the tournament were being played in Columbia, MO, the Tigers would be a favorite. But, away from home, the Tigers have been anything but spectacular. Missouri will face Cincinnati in their opening round matchup and will need a big performance from forward and Big 12 Newcomer of the Year Ricardo Ratliffe who is averaging 10.5 points and 6.1 rebounds. At times, Ratliffe has shown he is one of the best forwards in the conference, and other times he has disappeared. In addition, the Tigers will need a good performance from guard Marcus Denmon who has been Missouri's most consistent scorer with 17.1 points. Where the Tigers need to refocus is on their defense. Once a trademark of coach Mike Anderson's system, this team has not bought in as much and has tried at times to just outscore the other team. This strategy could backfire against Cincinnati if the Tigers don't dedicate themselves on the defensive end.
12. Memphis (Conference USA Champion)
It doesn't seem that long ago that Memphis ruled Conference USA with an iron fist. Two years removed from John Calipari's recruiting excellence, the Tigers had to slip into the Big Dance by knocking off host UTEP in the Conference USA tournament. The team was completely created by coach Josh Pastner in that none of the Calipari guys remain on the roster. This is an exceedingly young team. Freshman Will Barton was heavily touted prior to the season and the 6-foot-6 guard played well, but not great. He averaged 12.3 points and 5.0 rebounds, and only converted 27.3% of his three-pointers. Fellow freshman Joe Jackson, a Memphis native, had a great run in the tournament with 56 points in the three wins. Tarik Black could be a force against Arizona if he can stay out of foul trouble. The 6-foot-8 freshman fouled out of eight games, including two of three tournament wins.
13. Oakland (Summit Champion)
Oakland has a player in Keith Benson who could very likely could play in the NBA. He has the size and the scoring capability to make play at the next level. They also have Reggie Hamilton and Will Hudson to help. Thes three are the heart and soul of the team. They will face off against Texas in the first round. Tristan Thompson and Jordan Hamilton will have to play their A game to win this game. Oakland has the most experience in playing top teams as a 13-seeded team. Despite being 0-6 in playing the Top 50 teams, they have been on tear as of late. If Benson, Hamilton and Hudson put together great numbers, they could upset Texas and move on. I really like this Oakland team and I believe that they will step up and play. The Benson vs Thompson match up down low will be the high light of the game, as will the Reggie/Jordan Hamilton match up. Look for Benson to blow up and record his 21st double double on the season.
14. Bucknell (Patriot Champion)
Hopefully, Bison have selective memories. No one on Bucknell wants to remember November, when the team went 2-6. They got thing straightened out by the time Patriot League play started and won 13 of 14 conference games before streaking through the tournament as the top seed. Everything for the Bison starts with center Mike Muscala. The 6-foot-11 sophomore led the team with 14.9 points, 7.4 rebounds, and 2.0 blocks. He had seven double-doubles and will need to play out of his mind against Connecticut. The first two games for Bucknell came against Big East opponents and they were beaten soundly by both Villanova (in happier times for the Wildcats) and Marquette. Senior guard Darryl Shazier runs the point and averaged 5.6 assists to lead the Patriot League. He'll be tasked with slowing down Kemba. Good luck, Darryl!
15. Northern Colorado (Big Sky Champion)
Although this is the first trip to the NCAA tournament for Northern Colorado, they get the privilege of playing San Diego State in the first round. San Diego State is a solid team and Northern Colorado just doesn't have the power to with stand the scoring that San Diego State will put up. We don't see Northern Colorado upsetting San Diego State, but we do see that the game could be closer than what people are thinking the score will be, 70-61.
16. Hampton (MEAC Champion)
Hampton will be one of the 16-seed teams that will lose to a #1 seed in this years tourney. A #16 seed has never beat a #1 seed, but we can still talk about them anyway. Hampton basically plays 5 players for the entire game, they have no depth. In fact they have thee players that average over 31 minutes per game. Of course that's not uncommon for teams from smaller schools. They just don't have enough talent to hang with Duke. Duke versus teams that are Ranked over 100, are 9-0 and their average scoring margin is 31.1 points per game. Therefore Hampton will go down, but maybe the Pirates can keep it close for the first half.