Other Previews: First Four - East - West - Southeast -Southwest
If you like talented freshmen, and who doesn't, then the East is the place for you. Among the top four teams you have Jared Sullinger, Harrison Barnes, Terrence Jones, Brandon Knight, and Fabricio Melo. Well, all five were highly touted prior to the season, but one of them doesn't quite fit in that group. In any case, the media has dubbed this the toughest bracket and the top eight teams are very strong. The Buckeyes were the atop the infamous s-curve and only lost two games this season (at Wisconsin and at Purdue). Although the Tar Heels late season revival was somewhat staunched by Duke in the ACC championship, they are very talented and could easily make the Final Four as well.
EAST (Newark)
1. Ohio State (Big 10 Champion)
The Buckeyes enter the NCAA Tournament as the overall number one seed. Ohio State has only slipped up twice all season, with road losses to Wisconsin and Purdue. The team took care of business in the Big Ten Tournament, winning the tournament championship for the second straight year. Jared Sullinger was named the MVP of the Tournament, while Jon Diebler and William Buford were All-Tournament selections as well. David Lighty was an All-Tournament selection for them last season. The Buckeyes open with the winner of a play-in game, and would face either George Mason or Villanova in the second round if they advance. Ohio State is the favorite to win the tournament, but their lack of depth could hold them back from doing so. An Ohio State-North Carolina Regional Final game poses as an interesting possible matchup.
2. North Carolina (ACC)
The ACC regular season champs roll into the Dance having won 14 of their last 16 games, with both losses coming at the hands of arch rival Duke. They’ve grown considerably as a team, and keep finding ways to win. The good news here is mega hyped freshman Harrison Barnes is finally playing like we all expected him to. He averaged 24.7 points in the ACC Tournament, including a career-high 40 against Clemson, while also hitting 50% from downtown (11-for-22). The front line is huge, with 7-foot Tyler Zeller and 6-foot-10 John Henson producing points, boards and blocks with consistency. Depth is starting to look like an issue however, especially in the backcourt. point guard Kendall Marshall (5.8 assists) deserves a ton of credit for turning the ‘Heels season around, but he also deserves a ton of blame for turnovers and the teams slow starts in all three games in Greensboro. Without another viable option at the point, Marshall needs to forget about his last three games, initiate the offense, and get this machine rolling again. Another Achilles heel for the Heels’ is their outside shooting, as they hit just 33.3% from three-point range. That won’t bode well if they run into the ‘Cuses’ 2-3 zone in the Sweet 16. A second round matchup against an athletic Washington team could be trouble as well – but don’t forget UNC will get their first two games in front of a “home” crowd in Charlotte.
3. Syracuse (Big East)
How far Syracuse goes in the NCAA Tournament likely comes down to what point guard Scoop Jardine can do offensively. If his shot is on and he makes sound decisions the Orange can be a very good team. But when he struggles, the team as a whole struggles as he sometimes sacrifices getting other guys the ball while looking to rekindle his own offense. Brandon Triche played well going into the Big East Championship but struggled in New York, barely getting off the bench in the second half of their loss to UConn. Forwards Rick Jackson (leads the team with 10.6 rebounds) and Kris Joseph (leading scorer) have played well throughout the season, as has the oft-overlooked freshman C.J. Fair. Fabricio Melo played his best basketball of the season in the last two weeks, something that shouldn't be a major surprise given the amount of practice time the Orange enjoyed (two games the final two weeks of the regular season). If the guards aren't erratic in their shot selection Syracuse can get to the second weekend if not further.
4. Kentucky (SEC Champion)
Kentucky is riding a six-game winning streak entering the tournament including and decisively won the SEC Tournament, beating Ole Miss, Alabama, and Florida by an average of 13 points. As with last season, Kentucky's fantasy talent begins with supremely talented first year players. Freshman forward Terrence Jones was named to the All-SEC first team and is the conference's Freshman of the Year. Jones averaged 16.5 points and 8.9 rebounds. He also added 1.9 blocks and 1.9 assists. The team's leading scorer was actually freshman point guard Brandon Knight with 17.5 points, 4.2 assists, and 3.9 rebounds and he was named second team All-SEC. Kentucky is a hot team that is peaking at the right time but drew a tough draw as a #4 seed by landing in Ohio State's bracket. The potential second round matchup against #5 seed West Virginia could give the Wildcats a chance to revenge their tournament ouster at the hands of the Mountaineers last year. This team has the size and athleticism to beat anyone.
5. West Virginia (Big East)
The Mountaineers are an interesting case, and the good news for them is that they drew the winner of the first round game between UAB and Clemson. Casey Mitchell leads the Mountaineers in scoring with 14.1 points off the bench, but WVU tends to spread their points among a number of players. Point guard Joe Mazzulla isn't a light-sout offensive threat but he does a good job of running the show and Daryl Bryant is the other point guard who starts. Kevin Jones and John Flowers are on the wings with Flowers being one of the best defenders in the Big East. Jones hasn't been the "take over" kind of player many expected in the preseason but he's still second on the team in scoring while also leading the team with 7.4 rebounds per game. West Virginia won four of their last five games before falling to Marquette in the the Big East Championship, Deniz Kilicli is a bruiser inside and can score when needed to and guard Dalton Pepper can contribute when his shot is falling.
6. Xavier (A10)
We wouldn’t put much stock in the Musketeer’s A-10 Tournament loss to Dayton, and it looks like the selection committee didn’t either. This is a team that went 15-1 during conference play, and hadn’t lost in over a month. They’ve got all the pieces needed for a deep run in March, and it starts with point guard Tu Holloway. The A-10 Player of the Year averaged 20.2 points and 5.5 assists while shooting 34.9% from downtown. The front line is anchored by 6-foot-8, 245 pound Jamel McLean and 7-foot, 269 pound Kenny Frease who are pulling down 15.5 boards together, while also scoring in double-figures nightly. Xavier went 5-4 against NCAA Tournament teams, and has reached the Sweet 16 each of the past three seasons.
7. Washington (Pac 10)
The Huskies won the Pac 10 Tournament and looked like the team that was ranked in the Top 15 earlier in this season. They should be extremely confident heading into this weekend as their offense seems to be back on track after a late season swoon. Point guard Isaiah Thomas (16.8 points and 6.0 assists) leads an offensive attack that averaged 83.5 points which was the third best total in the country. Their point total wasn’t just a product of tempo as they finished ninth in the country with 1.15 points per possession. The Huskies' ability to clean the glass (39.3 rebounds) allows them to get out in the open court and use their athleticism to generate easy offense. They average almost nine three-pointers a game and have seven players that shoot 35% or better from beyond the arc. They can fill it up in a hurry if Thomas is able to penetrate and dish to open shooters. They aren’t a great free throw shooting team (67%) and zone defenses can take them out of their offense at times. They will need forward Matthew Bryan-Amaning (15.5 points and 8.1 rebounds) to play big down low if they are going to get by Georgia and North Carolina in the first weekend. The Bulldogs should be a tough matchup in the first round but they don’t have the depth to run up-and-down with the Huskies. They will need to slow the game down and maximize possessions in order to pull off the upset. If the Huskies win the first game, they are probably going to play North Carolina in Charlotte which won’t be an easy task.
8. George Mason (CAA)
Despite having their 16-game win streak snapped in the CAA tournament semis, George Mason returns to the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2008. We all remember their improbable Final Four appearance in 2006, and many think this Patriot team is capable of another deep tournament run thanks to their high powered offense. The CAA regular season champions outscored their opponents by an average of 11.8 points this season. Cam Long, a CAA First Team selection, is the Patriots top scorer at 15.3 points with forward Ryan Pearson chipping in 14.4 points. But Jim Larranaga's Patriots face a tough road to emulate their 2006 success, starting with a matchup against a struggling but talented Villanova squad who has last seven of their last nine games, then a potential second round match up against overall number one seed Ohio State.
9. Villanova (Big East)
Outside of Illinois it's tough to find much company in the "how not to go into the NCAA Tournament" category for Villanova, who lost to USF in the first round of the Big East Championship. They've lost seven of their last nine games with the issues beginning with Corey Stokes' turf toe. Add in Mouphtaou Yarou bruising his shoulder in that USF loss and a team that overall is banged up both mentally and physically, you get a squad that may not be in Cleveland long. But there's still talent at Jay Wright's disposal with Stokes being joined by Corey Fisher and Maalik Wayns (now coming off the bench) on the perimeter. Immensely talented, these two have struggled with decision-making and shot selection. Yarou and Antonio Pena are the key players inside with Isaiah Armwood also contributing after joining the starting lineup. But the Wildcats seem to be missing something in the way of both leadership and mental toughness, which could spell doom against a team as experienced as George Mason.
10. Georgia (SEC)
The Bulldogs are making their first appearance in the NCAA tournament since 2008 and they will have to be at their best to do some damage in the East. The talent is there. Howard Thompkins is one of the most promising forwards in the nation and no guard has more athleticism than Travis Leslie. You put those two together and add point guard Gerald Robinson, you have a roster that on paper can play with Washington (if not North Carolina). The problem has been consistent output. The Dawgs were beaten by Alabama twice in the last two weeks and haven't had a signature win since Jan. 8 when they beat Kentucky in Athens. Coach Mark Fox had some March success at Nevada, so maybe he can pull some rabbits out of his hat and Georgia can give Washington a good game.
11. Marquette (Big East)
There's one thing you can guarantee about Marquette: they're going to play hard from opening tip to final horn. But how well they play during those 40 minutes will depend on whether or not guys other than Jimmy Butler and Darius Johnson-Odom step up. Junior Cadougan looked to be that guy in their win over West Virginia last week, scoring 15 points off the bench to go along with five assists. But he was quiet the next night against Louisville, and fellow guards Vander Blue and Dwight Buycks also need to step up. Jae Crowder leads the team in rebounding and was one of the top newcomers in the Big East. But the Golden Eagles lack size inside, something needed to deal with the four-man rotation Xavier brings to the table. Marquette tends to play close games and have no bad losses outside of the regular season finale at Seton Hall, but they don't have a player the caliber of Xavier's Tu Holloway. That could doom them down the stretch on Friday night.
12. UAB/Clemson winner
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13. Princeton (Ivy Champion)
Some people will look at this match up and just give Kentucky the win, but that would be a big mistake. This Princeton team is a good one and will try and slow down the tempo of the game and play a more half court offense, which should frustrate Kentucky and this is what Princeton wants. Kentucky is full of freshmen and Princeton wants to try and exploit them and get them frustrated and hopefully they will make mistakes. This Kentucky team might be young, but their record does not reflect a team full of kids. Vs teams ranked 51-100, Kentucky is 5-3 with an average margin of victory of 4.5 points. So despite Kentucky's high profile stature and their 25-8 record, if they play like freshman and make mistakes, Princeton could win this game. They will need big play from their top 3 players: Kareem Maddox, Ian Hummer and Dan Mavraides. In the end. Kentucky's freshmen will rise to the top and take this game, but it wont be an easy fight: 72-64.
14. Indiana State (Missouri Valley Champion)
The season had its up and downs for the Sycamores. They lost three of their first four games and lost five straight games in conference play. They ended, however, going in the right direction and won seven of their last eight games, including an impressive Arch Madness tournament run through Wichita State and Missouri State, the top two seeds in the Valley. ISU has not been to the big dance since 2001 when they were a 13-seed and knocked out Oklahoma. They will have their task cut out for them with Syracuse. The team did shoot 36.3% from three-point range so a hot streak from the perimeter is not completely out of the question. That said, leading scorer Dwayne Lathan (11.0 points) was the only Sycamore to average double figures. Keep your eye on freshman Jake Odum, who became more of a scorer down the stretch and led the team in assists (4.0).
15. Long Island (Northeast Champion)
Long Island doesn't have much experience playing high profile teams. They have only played seven teams in the top 150, going 3-4. North Carolina's record against teams ranked between 51-100 is 11-1 with an average scoring margin of 12.9 points per game. Long Island has a pretty strong RPI for a #15 seeded team. Julian Boyd and Jamal Olasewere will have to play above and beyond their averages if Long Island wants to move onto the next round. North Carolina could look past this game giving Long Island the opportunity to take this game. If their game is close, Long Island has a chance, but if it gets out of hand, North Carolina will move on and Long Island will be going home. Long Island wins the close one: 73-68; North Carolina wins the blow out: 77-55.
16. UTSA/Alabama State winner
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