While three teams are locked into the NCAA Tournament from the Big Ten already, eight teams still have something to prove. Four of those eight teams will need to win a game or two to help their NCAA Tournament chances, while the other four will need to win the entire tournament to get the conference’s automatic bid. With Michigan, Illinois, Penn State, and Michigan State all tied with 9-9 records in conference, there are plenty of opportunities for these teams to leapfrog each other by winning in this tournament. Currently, ESPN Bracketologist has six Big Ten teams in the NCAA Tournament field. Ohio State, Purdue, and Wisconsin are all locks, while Michigan, Illinois, and Michigan State are still on the inside of the bubble. A deep run by one of the bubble teams would cement their place in the tournament, just like sixth-seeded Minnesota did last year.
In the 13-year history of the Big Ten Tournament, only six teams have ever played four games in four days. While eight, nine, ten, and eleven seeds have made it to the finals before, they have all lost. In 2001, Iowa was the only team to ever win four games in four days to win the tournament. From 2004 through 2007, the number one and two seeds played each other in the championship each year. This has not happened in any of the other nine Big Ten Tournaments though, making it hard to think that the top two seeds will square off in the finals on Sunday. Seven of the eleven Big Ten schools have won a Big Ten Tournament, with Ohio State leading the pack with three titles. With this year’s tournament being the fourteenth, it is also the seventh time that it has been played in Indianapolis. The other seven tournaments were played in Chicago, where the tournament will be played again starting in 2013. This will be the sixth time that I have attended the Big Ten Tournament, but only the second time that I will be viewing all ten games. It should be a rather fun-filled and exciting weekend of basketball at Conseco Fieldhouse.
Thursday, March 10
G1: #8 Northwestern vs. #9 Minnesota 2:30
G2: #7 Michigan State vs. #10 Iowa 5:00
G3: #6 Penn State vs. #11 Indiana 7:30
Friday, March 11
G4: #1 Ohio State vs. Northwestern/Minnesota winner 12:00
G5: #4 Michigan vs. #5 Illinois 2:30
G6: #2 Purdue vs. Michigan State/Iowa winner 6:30
G7: #3 Wisconsin vs. Penn State/Indiana winner 9:00
Saturday, March 12
G8: G4 winner vs. G5 winner 1:40
G9: G6 winner vs. G7 winner 4:10
Sunday, March 13
G10: Big Ten Championship-G8 winner vs. G9 winner 3:30
Sleeper: Penn State Nittany Lions
After finishing in last place with a 3-15 record in conference play last season, expectations were low for Penn State for this year. But with a four-senior starting lineup, the Nittany Lions have played to their potential and finished with a 9-9 record in conference this year. The Nittany Lions coming into Indianapolis having won their last game, a 66-63 win at Minnesota. Penn State opens the tournament with Indiana on Thursday night. The two teams only met once during the season, which also happened to be the first game of the entire Big Ten season. Penn State won 69-60 at Indiana, and this game may have a similar feel. Indianapolis is only an hour from Bloomington, where IU is located. Nonetheless, Penn State should be able to take care of a struggling Hoosiers team that has lost eight straight games. If they can win on Thursday, Penn State will play Wisconsin on Friday night. Penn State beat Wisconsin by four points at home, but fell to the Badgers by 10 points on the road. Wisconsin has struggled away from home though, with a 4-5 road record in conference. One of those four road wins was on a banked three-pointer at the buzzer at Michigan, while they also snuck away with an overtime win at Iowa. Wisconsin’s two other road wins came against Northwestern and Indiana. While Penn State will certainly not be favored against Wisconsin, I think they match up well with the Badgers. Penn State would love nothing more than to get their four senior starters to their first and only NCAA Tournament, as they felt they were snubbed from it two years again when the won the NIT. Penn State will try to replicate Minnesota’s run to last year’s Big Ten title where they lost to Ohio State. Nonetheless, getting to the finals was enough for Minnesota to make the field and it should be the same situation for Penn State. Sixth-seeded teams have an all-time record of 22-12 in the Big Ten Tournament, which is the third best record behind the first and second seeds.
Bust: Michigan State Spartans
It may seem odd that I chose the tournament’s seventh seed as the tournament’s bust, but the Spartan’s season has already been a bust. Why not continue the trend? Michigan State was a part of the four-way tie in the conference, but due to tiebreakers finished last among the teams with 9-9 records. At 16-13, Michigan State needs a win or two to improve their record and be selected by the committee. Michigan State has made two straight Final Four appearances, with virtually the same team as last year. Their struggles are puzzling to everyone. None of their losses were more surprising though than their 72-52 loss at Iowa on February 2. Michigan State did beat Iowa on March 2 though, beating them 85-66. This game between the two teams should be closer since it is on a neutral court. While Iowa is coming off a huge upset win on Saturday though, Michigan State is coming off a disappointing loss to Michigan. Iowa defeated sixth-ranked Purdue 67-65 on Saturday, their biggest win of the season by far. Michigan State was swept to Michigan though with the loss on Saturday, which was the first time in over a decade that they were swept by their in-state rival. While I am predicting Iowa to pull of the upset over MSU, I would not put my life on it. Even if Michigan State can get past the Hawkeyes though, I cannot see the Spartans beating Purdue on Friday. Purdue will be playing mad after losing to Iowa and want to improve their NCAA Tournament seed. Michigan State would probably need to defeat Purdue to get into the tournament field, which seems unlikely to me. Seventh-seeded teams have an all-time record of 8-13 in the tournament, including a 6-7 record against tenth-seeded teams. Seventh-seeded teams have only beaten two seeds twice in the tournament’s history as well. Michigan State has not been to the finals of the Big Ten Tournament since 2000. In 1999 and 2000, the Spartans defeated Illinois to take the crown.
Players to Watch
William Buford, Guard, Ohio State
While Jared Sullinger is Ohio State’s best player, Buford may be the Buckeyes most important player. Buford was on last year’s All Tournament Team, when he averaged 16.7 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 3.0 assists in three games. David Lighty and Evan Turner were both also apart of the All Tournament Team with Buford. He has scored in double figures in four straight and ten of his last eleven games. The junior from Tolono, Ohio, is second on the team in scoring this season with an average of 14.5 points. He is a versatile player that also averages 3.9 rebounds and 3.1 assists. Buford can handle the ball, and does so to start the game when Aaron Craft is on the bench. He can also shoot from the outside, shooting 45.5% from behind the arc on the season. The Buckeyes are in line for a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, but want to take care of this tournament first. They are poised to repeat as Big Ten Tournament champions, something that has not happened since Michigan State won back-to-back titles in 1999 and 2000. Buford is only a junior and will have another chance at it next year, unless he tests the NBA Draft waters. But the Buckeyes will lose David Lighty, Jon Diebler, Dallas Lauderdale, and likely Jared Sullinger after this season, meaning Ohio State needs to make it happen now. I would be surprised to not see the Buckeyes in the Big Ten title again this upcoming Sunday.
Demetri McCamey, Guard, Illinois
After being selected as a First Team All-Big Ten player last season, McCamey took a step back and was selected as a Third Team All-Big Ten player this year. McCamey, like Buford, was a part of last year’s All Tournament Team. The Fighting Illini fell to Ohio State in the semifinals, a game that went to double overtime. That loss kept Illinois out of last year’s tournament field, and McCamey does not want the same to happen this year. The Illini are in a little better shape this season then they were last year, and a win over Michigan would probably put them into the tournament. But you never know for sure and Illinois will be trying hard not to lose to Ohio State for the sixth straight time, if given the chance on Saturday. McCamey is Illinois’ best player by far, and averages 15.0 points, 3.4 rebounds, and 6.1 assists. He has scored 15-plus points in six straight games, after slumping midway through the season. McCamey is a senior, along with three other Illini starters. If Illinois cannot make it to the NCAA Tournament and win a game once in the tournament, McCamey will be a part of the first senior class since 1980 to not win a tournament game in their career. Look for McCamey to have another impressive performance at the Big Ten Tournament, trying to will his team into the field of 68.
E'Twaun Moore, Guard, Purdue
Moore is now a two-time First Team All-Big Ten selection, after the coaches and media voted on the awards on Monday. Moore also made Second Team All-Big Ten his freshman and sophomore seasons. The senior from East Chicago, Indiana, averages 18.3 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 3.2 assists. Moore is determined to play better than he did last year in the Big Ten Tournament. In Purdue’s loss to Minnesota in the semifinals, Moore 1-for-14 from the field and scored two points in only 21 minutes of playing time. Purdue lost that game 69-42 and trailed 37-11 at halftime. Purdue also has aspirations that go further than the Big Ten Tournament though. The Boilermakers are ranked ninth in the nation and could get up to a #2 seed if they play well in Indy. Purdue suffered a tough road loss to Iowa on Saturday, a team that only won four conference games. Purdue will either get revenge on this same Iowa team in their opening game, or play a Michigan State team that is hungry for an upset to help their tournament hopes. Nonetheless, I think Purdue will get by and actually end up winning this year’s tournament. If this happens, Moore and JaJuan Johnson will surely be All Tournament selections. Purdue won the Big Ten Tournament their sophomore season, beating Ohio State in the Championship game.
Talor Battle, Guard, Penn State
As I mentioned before, Penn State is my sleeper pick in the Big Ten Tournament. I believe they will be able to reach the semifinals at least, and Talor Battle is a big part of the reason why. Battle has struggled in the Big Ten Tournament in the past, shooting 14-for-41 in his four games. They are 1-3 in the tournament with Battle, with their only win coming two years ago against Indiana. Penn State will battle Indiana again this Thursday in the 6 vs. 11 game, just like two years ago. Penn State rolled in that contest, winning 66-51. Battle has had a remarkable senior season, scoring at least 12 points in all but one game this year. That one game was the only game that Battle did not get to the free throw line, where he gets to 5.4 times on average. Battle averages 20.4 points, 4.3 rebounds, and 3.1 assists. With a few more games, Battle will become Penn State’s All-Time Leading Scorer. The current leader is Jesse Arnelle with 2,138 career points. Penn State is on the outside of the bubble right now, and needs at least two wins to be in consideration for March Madness. If they can get three wins, they should definitely be in the tournament, although getting three straight wins will be tough. They would most likely have to go through Wisconsin and Purdue to get to the Championship. Penn State split the season series with Wisconsin; while they lost to Purdue both times they met. They lost at Purdue by a score of 63-62 on January 19 though, a game that Penn State should have won. The referees appeared to miss an out of bounds call with less than ten seconds left in the game that led to Purdue’s game-winning basket. Penn State would love to get revenge against Purdue, but would love even more to make it into the NCAA Tournament field.