Maybe I'm biased (because I never show that side!), but I think the A-10 is near the top of the Tier 2 conferences, and deserves at least three bids to the Dance annually. It's just a matter of time before one of these teams makes a run into late March. But having said that, this conference appears to be a clear case of haves, and have-nots. Top seed Xavier comes in 15-1 in conference play, and dispatched #2 seed Temple by 11 points in their only meeting. The Musketeers knocked off #3 seed Richmond by 23 points on the road, and the Spiders also dropped their lone matchup with the Owls by 20. Amazing the amount of separation here for teams that all have 24 wins. It'd be a shock if two of these three weren't playing for the conference championship on March 13th, and probably even more shocking if the seeds didn't hold throughout most of the tournament. The Boardwalk in Atlantic City should see some enjoyable hoops, and few upsets this weekend.
Tuesday, March 8 (note all games are played at the higher seeded teams home court)
G1 - #10 La Salle at #7 St. Bonaventure - 5:00 p.m
G2 - #12 St. Joseph's at #5 George Washington - 7:00 p.m
G3 - #11 St. Louis at #6 Rhode Island - 7:00 p.m.
G4 - #9 Dayton at #8 Massachusetts - 9:00 p.m.
Friday, March 11 (in Atlantic City)
G5 - Dayton/UMASS winner vs. #1 Xavier - noon
G6 - St. Joes/GW winner vs. #4 Duquesne - 2:30 p.m.
G7 - La Salle/St. Bonnies winner vs. #2 Temple - 6:30 p.m.
G8 - St. Louis/Rhode Island winner vs. #3 Richmond - 9:00 p.m.
Saturday, March 12
G9 - Winner of Game 5 vs. Winner of Game 6 - 1:00 p.m.
G10 - Winner of Game 7 vs. Winner of Game 8 - 3:30 p.m.
Sunday, March 13
A10 Championship Game - 1:00 p.m.
Sleeper - George Washington Colonials
For real justification, simply read the following paragraph on the tourney's bust. For me, by definition, a bust should be a team with a bye who might lose, and a sleeper should be the team most likely to play in the opening round, and advance to the semi-finals. The Colonials aren't going to win the tournament, and the don't do anything particularly well, as noted by their national rankings across the board. This is a team who won five in a row after Christmas, followed it with four straight losses, but enters the A-10 Tournament having won five of their last six. Their 17-13 record isn't much better than last years' 16-15 mark, but their league record of 10-6 is considerably up from last season's 6-10 mark. Headless Horsman junior guard Tony Taylor (he hails from Sleepy Hollow, NY) is the only Colonial who averaged in double-figures, scoring 14.8 points. Again, see the intro paragraph, and read the next paragraph, and you'll fully understand why GW is the best pick as a "sleeper."
Bust - Duquesne Dukes
It has been a terrific growing season for the Dukes, who went 16-16 (7-9 in conference) last season, and currently sit at 18-11 (10-6 in conference). But Duquesne limps into the post season having lost six of their last eight, and appear to be a team that peaked far too early. On the year, the Dukes rank 19th nationally in scoring, dropping 77.3 points each time out. But in their past eight games, that number has dipped all the way down to 65.3 ppg, and this team just looks like they've run out of gas. When things are right, they are one of the most enjoyable teams in America to watch. They run fast breaks to perfection, rarely requiring dribbles to go end-to-end. Their pressing, physical style of defense is frustrating to play against, and they've hit 35.2% of their three-point attempts in 2010-2011 as opposed to 26.1% from a year ago. But they look defeated, and an early exit from Atlantic City shouldn't surprise anyone. I just booted them from the tournament without mentioning a player!
Players to Watch
This is a talented league full of players you should know. Most of what follows is a spotlight on players who can make a difference during three days in Atlantic City. If you don't know Tu Holloway, Kevin Anderson, Justin Harper, Lavoy Allen, or Damian Saunders - email me.
Kenny Frease, C, Xavier
Frease is the reason teams nationally should be scared of the Musketeers. Very scared. You know points are going to come from Tu Holloway, and points and boards from Jamel McLean. But Frease is no slouch in any category, and at 7-feet, 269 pounds, has few physical equals nationally. 11.9 points and 7.2 boards are exceptionally solid out of your center, and 54.7% shooting from the floor, and 70.5% from the line make things even better. Frease rarely posts dominate lines (he has just six double-doubles this year) but that is in large part due to Xavier's depth. He's the type of player that doesn't wow you, but can stop runs with easy baskets, and all of a sudden have 12-15 points. His presence alone gives Xavier a legit third option, and not many in the conference have the size to challenge Frease.
Delroy James, F, Rhode Island
This is simple: 17.6 points, 7.8 rebounds, a steal and 1.4 blocks per game. The 6-foot-8 forward has seven double-doubles on the year, and is more than capable of getting hot, and carrying a team for three days. The Rams may be better suited for a "sleeper" role here than the aforementioned George Washington Colonials. They own a win over Richmond this season, and have more star power (James) than GW does. Ole Delroy is one of the few players in the A-10 who can single handedly carry a team for a weekend. And the bracket certainly makes you think it's possible.
Andrew Nicholson, F, St. Bonaventure
If there is a better player in America that you've never heard of, please tell me. Nicholson has been a monster since arriving on campus three seasons ago, who leads the A-10 in scoring (20.5 ppg) and field goal percentage (57.3%). Throw in 7.2 rebounds and 1.4 blocks, and you have yourself one of the few players in the league who can carry a team a long ways. A first round matchup against another potential NBA Draft pick in La Salle's Aaric Murray (15.1 ppg, 7.5 rpg) should have scouts flocking to upstate New York. Nicholson has battled leg injuries this year and still dominated. I encourage you to check this kid out if you get the chance. You won't regret it.
Ramone Moore, G, Temple
If it weren't for Xavier being nearly perfect, national hoops pundits may be making more of the Owls. They've only lost to the Musketeers and at Duke in 2011, and can thank Ramone Moore for a lot of their success. The junior guard has doubled his scoring (14.8 ppg vs. 7.6 in 2009-10) while averaging 4.3 boards, 3.3 assists and 1.2 steals. His numbers are even more impressive when you realize he only played 18.1 minutes per game last year, and has done some to most of his damage this season without the help of point guard Juan Fernandez, who has missed time due to injuries, and simply hasn't been himself when on the court. As good as Allen has been, he is shooting just 43.0% on the year, and only 38.9% over his last six games. It's something to watch, but something that also only figures to matter if the Owls find the Musketeers waiting for them come Sunday.