Like the Horizon, whose conference tournament I previewed yesterday, the Missouri Valley will have a hard time duplicating its success from last year's NCAA tournament, which made Faroukmanesh a household word (at least in my household - I still say it instead of Gesundheit). This year Missouri State has risen to the top of the conference, but Indiana State and Wichita State are not far behind. Arch Madness, the best name for a conference tournament, will be an interesting affair. It should be noted that the last three number one seeds have won the tournament.
Thursday, March 3
G1 -- #8 Southern Illinois vs. #9 Illinois State 6PM CST
G2 -- #7 Drake vs. #10 Bradley - 8:30PM CST
Friday, March 4
G3 -- #1 Missouri State (23-7, 15-3) vs. Winner G1, noon
G4 -- #4 UNI (19-12, 10-8) vs. #5 Creighton (18-13, 10-8), 2:30 p.m.
G5 -- #2 Wichita State (23-7, 14-4) vs. Winner of G2, 6 p.m.
G6 -- #3 Indiana State (17-13, 12-6) vs. #6 Evansville (15-14, 9-9), 8:30 p.m.
Saturday, March 5
G7 -- Winner G3 vs. Winner G4, 1:30 p.m.
G8 -- Winner G5 vs. Winner G6, 4 p.m.
Sunday, March 6
Championship -- Winner G7 vs. Winner G8, 1 p.m. (CBS Sports)
Bust: Northern Iowa Panthers
Unlike last year's edition of the Panthers, this year's squad seems to have peaked too soon. They rumbled through January with a 9-2 record and an eight-game winning streak that stretched into the first game in February. Since then, they have lost six of seven, including a loss to their first round opponent Creighton in the last game of the regular season. NIU lost Lucas O'Rear, a 6-foot-6 senior who averaged 6.6 points and 5.4 rebounds prior to the losing streak. O'Rear did not provide much statistically, but did many of the little things that allowed the Panthers to win. None of UNI's players will remember that Creighton coach Doug McDermott patrolled their sidelines through 2006, so that likely won't be a factor. Kwadzo Ahelegbe finished the season with 14-point scoring average and backcourt mate Anthony James provided 12.3 points. Redshirt sophomore Jake Koch showed promise with 9.8 points and 5.1 rebounds, but wasn't able to duplicate what O'Rear brought.
Sleeper: Southern Illinois Salukis
It has been a rough season for the Salukis. As recently as 2007, they were the kings of the Missouri Valley and had a streak of six straight NCAA tournament appearances. In 2010-11, they were almost in the basement of the Valley (you know, where all of the echoes land) and finished the season with three wins in their last 14 games. As the eight seed, they get to face Illinois State (which has also dropped off the planet this year) and I think they could give Missouri State a good run in the second round. Carlton Fay is part of the first class of Salukis to miss the Big Dance in over a decade, but he can produce big numbers. He had a 33-point game on Jan. 9 against the Redbirds and averaged 13.3 points. The 6-foot-8 senior never really developed into a top notch scorer, but he did score at least 15 points 11 times. Junior forward Mamadou Seck is developing and had six double-doubles. If Seck can stay out of foul trouble, he could be a factor. The Salukis would be helped if Gene Teague were allowed to play, but the 290 lb center has been dealing with personal issues resulting from a Feb. 4 suspension.
Players to Watch
Kyle Weems, F, Missouri State
By the virtue of being the best player on the best team in the conference, Weems looks like the prohibitive favorite to win Player of the Year. Don't get me wrong: he is very good, but from a fantasy perspective he is not that exciting. The 6-foot-6 junior has improved in his three seasons in Springfield. He made 50.7 % of his shots from the field and was held to single digits just twice (including in a Feb. 23 blowout win over Southern Illinois in which he scored nine points, but had a career high five assists). During Valley conference play, he had four double-doubles and scored in the twenties four times as well. Neither of his games against the Salukis were great statistically, but the Bears won both contests handily.
Doug McDermott, F, Creighton
Always be aware of those coaches' sons. McDermott followed his father to Creighton and his father was not afraid to give a great deal of playing time in his freshman year. This was no case of nepotism as the 6-foot-7 forward led the Bluejays in both scoring (14.3 points) and rebounding (7.6). The rebounding total is particularly impressive when you consider that Creighton also has Kenny Lawson Jr. and Gregory Echenique patrolling the paint. He scored in double figures in all but three conference games and had six double-doubles. In addition to being able to bang inside, McDermott showed nice range on his jumper. He made 37.2% of his threes for 1.0 threes per game.
Jake Odum, G, Indiana State
Like many freshmen, Odum took a couple of months to find his role on the Sycamore team. He didn't produce much in non-conference play, but opened some eyes in conference. The 6-foot-4 Terre Haute native scored 20 or more points three times and showed some ability to get fouled (he went to the line ten or more times in three games). Odum also provided 3.9 rebounds and a team-high 4.1 assists as well as 1.7 steals. Against Evansville, the Sycamores' first opponent, Odum had his first 20-point game on New Years Day. He was also held to three points in the second half of the Aces' sweep on Jan. 26.
Colt Ryan, G, Evansville
Ryan was last year's Freshman of the Year and he has improved his game in his second season. He improved his scoring average to 15.8 points and really scored well down the stretch. He scored a career-high 32 points in the final game of the regular season, a win over Illinois State to snap an Ace four-game losing streak. Ryan scored 20 or more points in five of the last nine games of the season. He hit 39.7% of his three-pointers and was nearly automatic from the line (88.4%). Ryan adds 3.3 rebounds, 2.3 assists and 1.3 steals to round out his statistical resume.
J.T. Durley, C, Wichita State
Earlier in the season, the Shockers were expected to be the best team in the Valley. They got swept by Missouri State, but only suffered one bad loss - against Southern Illinois. Durley is the kind of player we've come to expect from the MVC: a center that provides just enough stats to be relevant. The 6-foot-8 senior led the team with 11.3 points and contributed 5.1 rebounds. The thing that makes him valuable is that center eligibility. He only had one double-double, but scored in double digits in 14 of the last 19 games of the season, including 11 of 12 to begin the calendar year. Like many Valley stars, he won't excite you, but he will provide consistent numbers.