I believe I can make the following statement with complete knowledge that I will be correct: the Horizon will not do as well in the NCAA tournament as they did last year. Butler's unbelievable run was one for the ages and will not be repeated any time soon. However, we shouldn't bury the Horizon. The official league website informed me that the Horizon is the only non-Tier 1 conference to win a NCAA tournament game for the last six years. Therefore, whichever team comes out of the conference tournament (and there will likely be only one representative this year) will need to keep that streak alive. Butler is still here but they are not invincible anymore. It should be an exciting tournament, the first of which we are profiling here on CFHI.
Tuesday, March 1
G1 - #10 UIC at #3 Cleveland State vs. -7:00PM EST
G2 - #7 Green Bay at #6 Wright State - 7:00PM EST
G3 - #9 Youngstown State at #4 Valparaiso - 8:00PM EST
G4 - #8 Loyola (IL) at #5 Detroit - 7:00PM EST
Second Round - Friday, March 4 (Milwaukee)
G5 - UIC/Cleveland State winner vs. Green Bay/Wright State winner - 6:00PM EST
G6 - Youngstown State/Valparaiso winner vs. Loyola/Detroit winner - 8:30PM EST
Semifinals - Saturday, March 5 (Milwaukee)
G7 - #2 Butler vs. Game 5 winner - 6:00PM EST (ESPNU)
G8 - #1 Milwaukee vs. Game 6 Winner - 8:30PM EST (ESPNU)
Championship - Saturday, March 5 (at higher seed)
G9: Game 7 Winner vs. Game 8 Winner - 9:00PM EST (ESPN)
Sleeper: Youngstown State Penguins
There was an immediate sleeper among the lower seeded teams, so I chose the team that has been battling hard but not winning. The Penguins took Milwaukee to overtime before falling in the last game of the regular season. They also battled Valparaiso, their first round opponent, to an overtime loss on Feb. 5. Granted, they only won two conference games and nine for the season, but they have some talented players that they could give the Crusaders some grief. My personal favorite among the Penguins is Damian Eargle, who led the Horizon with 3.0 blocks to go along with 11.0 points and 5.9 rebounds. The sophomore who transferred from UNC-Greensboro scored at least 15 points in his last five games and had 16 blocks in that span. In the Jan. 7 loss at Valparaiso, Eargle had 15 points, eight rebounds, and four blocks. Lithuanian senior Vytas Sulskis led the team with 13.1 points and freshman point guard Kendrick Perry provided 8.7 points and 4.0 assists.
Bust: Wright State Raiders
The Raiders looked like they were going to finish in the top three of the conference, but they lost to all four teams that ended up above them down the stretch. They were impressive in crushing Hofstra as part of the Bracket Busters. Their first round opponent is Green Bay, who they beat by a combined five points in a sweep. The second half of the sweep was on Jan. 28 and the Raiders went 4-5 after that. The one guy who may not let the team bust is Vaughn Duggins who has been around since 2006-07. The 6-foot-3 guard averaged 18.0 points and scored at least 19 points in his last seven games. He averaged 22.5 points against the Phoenix. N'Gai Evans provides a nice complement to Duggins and is averaging 14.2 points, 4.0 rebounds, and 3.2 assists, but the Raiders have little in the frontcourt. Perhaps naming the six-seed as a bust is a bit weak, but no one else jumped out at me.
Players to Watch
Norris Cole, G, Cleveland State
The Vikings tied with Butler and Milwaukee for the best conference record. Because they were swept by the Bulldogs and split with the Panthers, they get the third seed and no double-bye. That may be two extra games for Cole to show off in front of a bigger audience, but it may also mean that he has two more games of wear and tear on him before the Vikings get a chance to avenge their Butler sweep in the semifinals. I secretly hope CSU makes the Big Dance because I'd like to see Cole on a bigger stage. The 6-foot-1 senior has had a litany of huge games down the stretch, but none bigger than his amazing 41-point, 20-rebounds, nine-assist game on Feb. 12 against Youngstown State. While the 20 rebounds were a fluke, Cole did have four other double digit boarding games. He averaged 21.6 points, 6.0 rebounds, and 5.5 assists in his final season.
Matt Howard, F, Butler
Unlike his junior season in which Howard ceded the floor to Gordon Hayward and was constantly in foul trouble, the 6-foot-8 forward stayed on the court and produced nice numbers as a senior. Howard extended his range to beyond the arc and made 44.6% of his three-pointers. He did not fall in love with his long range jumper, but got into the paint to average 16.8 points and 7.9 rebounds. The Bulldogs won seven straight to finish the season, so Howard should have a nice opportunity to heal the various bumps and bruises he sustained throughout the season. He had eight double-doubles, and three in conference play. He is the conference's most efficient frontcourt player and has a wealth of big game experience (which doesn't count for a lot, but I had to make note of it).
Kaylon Williams, G, Milwaukee
I like forwards that can pass and guards that can rebound. While Williams, a transfer from Evansville, is only fifth on the Panthers in scoring, I love the fact that he provides 5.6 rebounds and 5.5 assists. You know what that means: with his 8.2 points, he could conceivably go for a triple-double. That's just what he did on Jan. 13 with ten points, ten rebounds, and ten assists in a win over Butler. He had three other double-doubles (including the rare rebound-assist combo with 12 rebounds, 14 assists and one point on Feb. 12 against UIC). The 6-foot-3 Williams had at least seven assists in six of his last seven games. He only hit 39.0% of his shots, but the Panthers have other players like Anthony Hill (15.3 points) and Tone Boyle (13.3 points) to score. If your league is points-only, skip Williams.
Ray McCallum Jr., G, Detroit
McCallum is the future of the Horizon League. For the Titans, that future might the present. The freshman doubles as the coach's son and some color commentator might even call him an extension of the coach on the floor. The McDonald's All-American has been as good as promised and has averaged 13.5 points, 4.6 rebounds, and 4.9 assists. For further inspiration, McCallum is coming off his worst game of the season: a three-point, two-rebound, two-assist game in a win over Wright State. The Titans do have other good players including the conference's best center, Eli Holman (11.8 points, 9.6 rebounds), and Chase Simon, who tied with McCallum for the team's scoring lead. Look for McCallum to play well in the first round against Loyola (IL).
Brandon Wood, G, Valparaiso
I would probably doing you a disservice if I spent more pixels on Loyola forward Andy Polka, who like me is a native of Oshkosh, WI. And if you've read this far, I will take pity on you and not write about the fifth year senior who only averaged 6.3 points and 7.1 rebounds. Wood, a 6-foot-2 junior, is much more worthy of your time. In his second year after transferring from Southern Illinois (which looks like a good move at this point), Wood averaged 16.2 points to go along with 4.3 rebounds and 3.3 assists. Wood had a string of three 20-point games including 24 in a win over Missouri State in the Crusaders' Bracket Busters win. He did have a horrible game against the Ramblers (possibly due to Polka's intimidating defensive presence) on Feb. 28 and only scored two points on 1-for-8 shooting from the field. Wood scored 31 points in the last meeting with Youngstown State, the Crusaders' first round opponent.