Well folks, it's officially basketball season. I know we're over 20 games into the year, but with football officially behind us, conference and national seeding are finally atop the sports world as we eye the Big Dance in mid-March. I've got my tickets to what was called the first and second round games in Washington, DC and "bracketology" has to be one of the top internet searches daily. And in ACC circles, fans may be a little more anxious than others as it's probably only safe to put two teams on your sheet in pen right now. So, who's on the bubble, and who needs to step up to make their team a lock?
I view this in a slightly different manner than others may. For the most part, the bubble teams here have established scorers and fantasy commodities. But to get hot and go on a little run here in February and March, you need someone "new" to emerge. Someone to take the pressure off your star just a bit. Duke is obviously in the Dance; UNC as well. Virginia, Georgia Tech, North Carolina State and Wake Forest are going to need a miracle four day run in Greensboro if they have any visions of being a 13 or 14 seed. That leaves us with six additional teams who are looking for that third option to pick up some slack, and push their squad into real post season action.
Florida State
established: F Chris Singleton, G Derwin Kitchen
must step up: F Okaro White
The 'Noles are definitely in the best shape of the teams mentioned here, but are far from locked in at this point. Their schedule is favorable, as they get the four teams mentioned above who are out of contention, as well as a North Carolina team in Tallahassee that can help boost their resume. You really could pick any number of guys here who could emerge and make FSU a real threat in March. Bernard James gives them good size, and isn't a liability in any facet of the game. When Deividas Dulkys shoots well, the 'Noles usually win. Michael Snaer has yet to tap in to any of his tremendous potential. But I'm going to single out freshman Okaro White here. He's a wiry, springy 6-foot-8, 198 pound freshman who has started the last two contests and shown some real promise as a momentum changing playmaker. White's starting numbers aren't sexy, he's averaging nine points and 4.5 rebounds, but taken in context, it's easy to see White's importance. You have to remember the 'Noles leading scorer averages 13.9 points and is mired in a slump, and only one other player averages in double-figures. White is earning his minutes, and that soft schedule we noted means his confidence should continue to grow as we move towards spring.
Clemson
established: G Demontez Stitt, F Jerai Grant
must step up: G Andre Young
Just take a look at the Tigers' most recent box score against Georgia Tech, and you can see how vital Young can be to Clemson's post season hopes. He was the third double figure scorer in a game where Clemson scored just 65 points, but shot 56.8% from the floor! He's knocked down 47.6% of his shots over the last two tilts, compared to 32.6% during the previous five, a percentage that has to continue. When Young is contecting from outside, it doesn't allow defenses to key on stopping Stitt outside, while also opening the interior up for Grant and his ridiculously effecient shooting (58.6%). No one else on this roster is going to command the respect of defenses. Clemson has a remaining schedule that is daunting (@ Duke, UNC, BC, VT, just to name a few) and a few wins would put them in the upper tier of this conference. I'd put their NCAA chances at about 30% now, but they'd go up to at least Young's recent shooting percentage, if he continues that pace.
Virginia Tech
established: G Malcolm Delaney, F Jeff Allen
must step up: G Erick Green
Most bracket predictions seem to have the Hokies in as of now. Why, I'm not overly sure. Maybe I'm biased just because Seth Greenberg's antics on the sideline are absurd, and I think he cries (unjustifiably) about not making it into the Big Dance year after year. I'm hoping and looking forward to it happening again in six to eight weeks. But it's hard not to feel bad for the players on this squad who are giving their all in the face of an injury plague in Blacksburg. And while Jeff Allen is on a current five-game tear, and seems to be getting better as the year moves on, sophomore Erick Green looks like he is running on fumes. Green has undoubtably taken a big leap in his second season, and probably deserves most of the credit for the Hokies still being in the NCAA discussion. But over his last four games, he's hitting just 26.1% of his shots and is coming off a woeful 0-of-8, one point game at Boston College. A game VT lost by just two points. Maybe this week's bye will serve Green well (they have eight days off between BC and Sunday's matchup with GT) and there isn't any doubting his potential to score, or the minutes he's guaranteed to see. This youngster needs to fight through fatigue however, or he'll have all spring and summer to better condition himself while wondering what could have been.
Boston College
established: G Reggie Jackson, F Joe Trapani
must step up: F Corey Raji
I have to admit I was shocked looking at stats here. Raji is actually having a statistically better season than he did in '09-'10, and I had absolutely no idea. Maybe it's because he's been a consistent contributor his entire career that I expected more. Maybe it's because he isn't always in the starting lineup that I assume he is slumping. Maybe it's his brother's fault (Green Bay Packer DT B.J. Raji) that I just have in my brain that the younger Raji is a straight up baller. Something just isn't right here. The Eagles have four players averaging in double-figures, all upperclassmen too. So why aren't they better? Raji is shooting a superb 52.8% from the floor, and has hit 28 three-pointers after hitting just ten in his first three seasons in Chestnut Hill. So maybe I'm talking myself out of Raji needing to step up. Or perhaps it's time for Raji to be the player I think he is when I hear his name, instead of someone who has just one double-double this year after having four last season. This guy averaged 8.3 points and 4.3 boards as a freshman, and now is up to just 12.3 points and 6.6 boards. Your days are numbered Mr. Raji - go out in style!
Maryland
established: F/C Jordan Williams
must step up: everyone else
We've waited and waited all year for the Terps to find a consistent second scoring option. Emphasis on consistent. I just don't understand how someone in College Park can't make open shots. Could you imagine how good Kyle Singler and Nolan Smith would be if Jordan Williams was in the middle? Cliff Tucker showed signs of life in January, Adrian Bowie is playing decently over the last six weeks. Then there is freshman Terrell Stoglin, who's minutes are dwindling by the game. At this point, the Terrapins probably need to win most, if not all of their remaining games to stay in the discussion for an at large bid. They own no signature wins, and only have one more chance with a Feb. 27 trip to Chapel Hill. And that isn't even as big a win as it used to be. You can't ever count out a team that has such an unstoppable force inside. But for the love of basketball - someone make some shots!
Miami
established: G Durand Scott, G Malcolm Grant, C Reggie Johnson
must step up: F Adrian Thomas
To be honest, a team that is 14-9 overall, and 3-6 in conference really isn't on the bubble. But Miami's six ACC defeats were by a total of 29 points (4.8 per game). Sometimes, some seasons, the basketball gods just aren't on your side I suppose. The 'Canes have won two tight ones in a row, so maybe their luck, and confidence is beginning to swing. Virginia Tech is the only team mentioned here who isn't on Miami's schedule to close out the regular season, and it will take someone like Adrian Thomas finding a rhythm for the Hurricanes to continue their winning. The sixth-year senior is second on the team with 56 3-pointers, and is coming off a 20-10 game against Virginia. That's the good news. The bad news is his shooting has regressed over his never ending career, as he's knocking down just 38.9% of his jumpers to date. Efficient he isn't, but capable he is. This team has the talent to be an upper echelon squad in the ACC, and maybe, just maybe Thomas can warm up enough to boost the 'Canes into the bubble discussion.
It's been an odd season in the ACC, and it doesn't figure to get any less murky. You have to believe that even in a down season, four or five teams go Dancing. And with only two spots seemingly locked up, pick a wildcard from above, and hang your hat on them. If I'm making a predicition here...I'm taking FSU and BC to get in, with Clemson, Virginia Tech and Miami fighting through the conference tournament to be the fifth school in. Which I guess translates into solid finishes from Okaro White and Corey Raji!