After another crazy week in Big Ten basketball, a few things have been determined. First, any road win is important no matter who it is against. Second, there is incredible parity in this conference. And third, the final four weeks leading up to the Big Ten Tournament are going to determine the fate of many Big Ten teams that are currently on the "bubble." Here's how the conference stacks up: Ohio State, Purdue, and Wisconsin are all locks for the tournament and are in good shape to receive high seeds as well. Illinois, Minnesota, Michigan State, Penn State, Northwestern, and Michigan all have a chance to make the NCAA Tournament, but are considered to be on the bubble at this point. And Indiana and Iowa, although vastly improving, have no chance to make the tournament unless they can win the Big Ten Tournament.
Indiana and Iowa are tied in last in the conference with records of 3-8. All of the last place teams in the other "power conferences" have either one or no wins during conference play. On the other end of the spectrum, Ohio State is 11-0 and should be able to take the regular season crown unless disaster strikes and they blow a 3.5 game lead. Purdue and Wisconsin are both 7-3 in conference play and should feel confident about their chances of receiving byes in the Big Ten Tournament, since five teams will receive these byes. In between all of this, there are six bubble teams that are within 1.5 games of each other in the conference standings. How they do the rest of the season, especially against the other bubble teams, will rest upon their most important players. The group of players that I will highlight in this article have proven to be both great fantasy players, as well as team players and leaders for their respective squads. Whether or not these teams make the NCAA Tournament or not, will partially be determined by how these players perform over the next month.
Demetri McCamey, Guard, Illinois
The senior point guard McCamey has been in a real funk lately. During the three-game stretch before the Northwestern game on Saturday, McCamey had only scored 17 points. McCamey scored 14 points on Saturday, but most of the points came very late in the game during Illinois' effort to comeback. McCamey missed a critical front-end of a 1-and-1 with Illinois trailing by three points with 10 seconds left in the game. Despite the adversity, McCamey is the motor that makes the Fighting Illini run. He was a First Team All-Conference player last season, averaging 15.1 points and 7.1 assists. This year he averages 14.7 points and 6.7 points, very similar numbers. McCamey has been known throughout his career for making big shots as well. Two years ago, he hit a bank shot with only seconds left as Illinois mounted a 15-point comeback in the final minutes over Northwestern. And last season, he hit a game-winning shot over Indiana at home. The Fighting Illini have struggled mightily on the road this season, at 1-4 in Big Ten play. The road ahead does not get any easier either, as they still play at Minnesota, Michigan State, Ohio State, and Purdue. As of right now, Illinois is still inside the bubble. Their RPI is 37 and up until today, they were ranked in most polls. I believe that they will need to go at least 4-4 in their remaining games to make the Big Dance. This would make them 9-9 in conference and 19-12 overall before the Big Ten Tournament. Last season, Illinois was one of the last teams left out of the tournament. They finished at 10-8 in the Big Ten and lost to Ohio State in double-overtime during the Big Ten Tournament Semifinals.
Blake Hoffarber, Guard, Minnesota
While Minnesota's frontcourt gets a lot of attention, it's this 6-foot-4 sharpshooter out of Minnetonka, Minnesota that makes the Golden Gophers click. Coming out of high school, Hoffarber was most known for being the kid who hit that game-winning shot in a State Championship from the seat of his pants, sitting on the ground as time expired. Hoffarber had similar heroics in his freshman year at Minnesota, beating Indiana with a prayer during the quarterfinals of the Big Ten Tournament. As a senior, his minutes have gone up as has his production. Without point guard Al Nolen, Hoffarber now is the Gophers main ballhandler. He averages a solid 14.2 points, 3.4 rebounds, and 4.0 assists. He also makes 2.6 three pointers per game at a 40.3 percent rate. Six of Minnesota's last seven games are against other bubble teams. If they can finish 9-9, they have a good chance to make the tournament. They have a higher RPI than Illinois at 27. Illinois and Minnesota meet on Thursday in Minneapolis, the only time these two will play this season. Last year Minnesota came into Champaign and beat the Illini, which was probably the main reason that the Gophers made the NCAA Tournament and the Fighting Illini did not, despite Illinois having a better conference record. The Gophers also made an impressive run in the Big Ten Tournament last season. They beat eleventh-seeded Penn State, followed by third seeded Michigan State, and second seeded Purdue, before bowing out to top seeded Ohio State in the championship game. Hoffarber's role is even more important now that Al Nolen is out, although the Gophers would love for him to be able to come back.
Kalin Lucas, Guard, Michigan State
Two years ago, Lucas was the Conference Player of the Year in the Big Ten. Although his numbers are similar to his sophomore season, Lucas still seems a couple steps slower after injuring his Achilles' tendon last season. The Spartans made consecutive Final Fours and there was no reason to expect them not to make another deep run in March. The Spartans have won one of their last seven games and three of their last ten. Those three victories were all overtime wins at home in games that the Spartans trailed late. In their five conference wins, MSU has outscored opponents by a combined 20 points. In their six conference losses, they have been outscored by a combined 73 points. With a 13-10 record and RPI of 50, Michigan State should need 10 conference wins, which will be very difficult to get to. They still play at Ohio State, Minnesota, and Michigan and battle with Purdue, Illinois, Penn State, and Iowa at home. Lucas has really picked up the slack lately though, averaging 22.5 points over the past four games. Lucas' legacy is in jeopardy if the Spartans cannot put together another magical end of the season run. Last year, the team was able to make the Final Four without him, their star player. This year they have him and are struggling to make the NCAA Tournament. Although they have had their struggles, I could see the Spartans put together a nice run in the Big Ten Tournament. They are a deep team that can run, and I would not be surprised to see Tom Izzo's team playing in March Madness as usual.
Talor Battle, Guard, Penn State
Coming into the season, expectations were low for the Nittany Lion program. Battle would love nothing more than to make his only NCAA Tournament appearance in this his senior season. Two years ago, Penn State won the NIT after getting gypped off by the Selection Committee. Battle averages an impressive 20.5 points, 4.6 rebounds, and 3.2 assists and has scored in double figures in all but one game this season. Penn State is 12-10 with an RPI of 69, so they may be in desperation mode. I believe they would also need a 10-8 finish in the Big Ten, which would not be easy at all. Nonconference losses to Mississippi and Maine may really put a dent on the Nittany Lions' chances. Penn State is currently without their second leading scorer and leading rebounder, Jeff Brooks. The senior has a dislocated right shoulder but should be back playing within the week, taking much of the weight off of Battle. Penn State has a four senior starting lineup, which should make them extra hungry to make the tournament since this will be their last chance to do so. What Battle lacks in stature, he makes up for in heart. The 6-foot senior out of Albany, New York may be the greatest Penn State player in the program's history. Making the NCAA Tournament this season would do nothing but help his chances of getting that kind of recognition. Battle has been a First and Second Team All-Big Ten player, and I would expect him to be on one of those teams again at the commencement of this season.
John Shurna, Forward, Northwestern
Although Michael Thompson may be the heart and soul of Northwestern, Shurna will be the key in determining whether the Wildcats can get over the hump and get to the NCAA Tournament for the first time in school history. For those who haven't heard, Northwestern is the only BCS school to never have made the field of 64, which has now expanded to 68 teams. Shurna has battled through a high ankle sprain and concussion this season, and still averages 18.5 points, 4.6 rebounds, and 3.1 assists. In Northwestern's best win of the season on Saturday against Illinois, Shurna calmly stepped to the free throw line in a one-point game and hit both free throws to secure the win. Although he only scored eight points in that game, he dished out five assists. The ankle injury may still be bothering him, but he refuses to use that as an excuse for anything. Northwestern's RPI is 81 and they are currently 4-7 in conference play, so it may seem like their NCAA hopes may have to wait another year. But they still play Penn State twice, at Michigan, at Indiana, and home against Iowa and Minnesota. All of these are winnable games for the Wildcats, who like Illinois have struggled on the road. Northwestern's toughest test still is at Wisconsin, a team who they lost to by 32 at home two weeks ago. Shurna is shooting 51.6 percent from three-point range, which is the best of any player in the entire nation. If he can get back to scoring over 20 points in games, which he did for six consecutive contests earlier in the year, Northwestern will be very tough to beat no matter if they are playing at home or on the road. I wonder what would have happened too if Shurna could have played against #1 Ohio State. He had to sit out the game because of his concussion, and that was a game that Northwestern lost by one point. Nonetheless, the Wildcats got their signature victory that they needed against Illinois, and by going 9-9 or better in the Big Ten, they will give themselves a shot of making the tournament.
Darius Morris, Guard, Michigan
The do-it-all sophomore point guard has proven himself to be the most improved player in the conference. And with this improvement, the Wolverines are unexpectedly having a solid season. Morris went from averaging 4.4 points, 1.8 rebounds, and 2.6 assists as a freshman, to 15.6 points, 3.7 rebounds, and 6.9 assists as a sophomore. It all came together when Morris triple-doubled against Iowa on Jan 30. Michigan's 13-10 overall record and 4-7 conference record is good for an RPI of 59, but Michigan will need to get to at least 9-9 in order to have a chance at an at-large bid. Whether or not they make the tournament, this has been an impressive year for Michigan after losing Manny Harris and DeShawn Sims after last season's disappointment. This Michigan squad will be very tough next year as well, since every major contributor on the team should be back. Morris is a strong guard that is not afraid to attack the bucket to score points on his own, but he also looks for the open teammate in Michigan's three point heavy offense. If the Wolverines get hot from deep, they are a tough team to beat no matter whom the opponent is. Last year, the Wolverines season ended when Evan Turner hit a half court shot at the buzzer during the quarterfinals of the Big Ten Tournament. I am sure they are looking to get that bad taste out of their system this year, and at worst make the NIT.