It’s time to separate the men from the boys. While the occasional monster matchup in the non-conference schedule is like opening a present on Christmas morning, it doesn’t completely make up for the 10 other snooze fests we have to put up with. Conference play is upon us and it’s time to play teams that know how to defend you and exploit your weaknesses. Let’s look at some players that could enjoy conference play and some that would rather beat up on the little guys.
Joshua Smith, C, UCLA – The mammoth first year player is an offensive rebounding machine. He has grabbed 55 offensive rebounds and leads the country in offensive rebounding percentage (22.8%). The main reason he isn’t getting more national pub is because he can’t stay on the floor. He only averages 19.8 minutes per season and has topped 22 minutes only twice. The main culprit has been foul trouble and coach Ben Howland is going to review how the Bruins defend ball screens in order to keep Smith closer to the basket. He could be in line for some monster games if he can get some more run because no one in the conference has the size to match up with him.
Jared Cunningham, G, Oregon State – The Beavers had a horrendous start to the season but Cunningham has led them to a surprising 2-0 start in the Pac 10. He was known primarily for his ability to pick opponents pockets (fourth in the country with 3.2 steals) but he has reached double-figures in scoring in seven straight games. He is ultra-quick off the dribble and is starting to take advantage of that skill by getting into the lane at will. He has averaged 19 points in his last four games thanks to 35 trips to the charity stripe. He is definitely on the rise.
Matthew Bryan-Amaning, F/C, Washington – The Big Brit was named the Pac 10 Player of the Week last week while leading the Huskies to road wins over USC and UCLA. The season hasn’t been a smooth one for MBA as he had to deal with coming off the bench for a four game stretch in early December. Hopefully you stuck with him because he has averaged 16.3 points and 9.5 rebounds since being re-inserted into the starting lineup. The addition of center Aziz N'Diaye hasn’t hurt him at all and the two are starting to learn how to play off of each other. Look for MBA to continue the hot streak against the smaller Pac 10 frontlines.
While those players are trending up, here are a couple of players that could potentially produce less now that the competition has picked up.
Joevan Catron, F, Oregon – Catron was one of the biggest surprises in the non-conference season as he shot out of the gates by scoring at least 20 points in three of his first four games. The trend continued through the non-conference season but he was brutal last week as the Ducks dropped home games to both of the Arizona schools. In those two games, he averaged 10 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 3.5 turnovers. Even worse, he only played a combined 38 minutes while picking up nine fouls. He is going to have some decent lines going forward, but don’t expect him to average the 17 points and seven rebounds he gave you before the calendar turned to 2011.
Derrick Williams, F, Arizona – One of the preseason favorites for Player of the Year still has a shot to win the award, but he is going to need some help from his teammates. Teams have started to pack in the lane and force the Wildcats to beat them from the perimeter which has severely affected Williams’s ability to wreak havoc on the low post. He is one of a few players that average more free throw attempts (8.7) than field goal attempts (8.4). In the two games against the Oregon schools he only took nine shots compared to 21 free throws. Even more concerning is that his rebounding is slightly down from last season. Of course, he still is one of the best players in the country (18.6 points and 6.7 rebounds) but owners were probably expecting more. If his teammates don’t step up, he will have a hard time consistently getting to 20 points.
Kyle Cain, F, Arizona State – The freshman grabbed 30 rebounds in the two games prior to conference play but he didn’t have much success against the Oregon schools last week. He combined for seven points and eight rebounds in those two games while playing only 30 minutes due to foul trouble. He was mostly a one trick pony to begin with and will probably struggle to consistently put up double-double numbers. He is averaging 7.7 points and 7.8 rebounds and that is probably the ceiling for him in conference action.