It’s always dangerous to put too much stock in the first few weeks of the college basketball season. There are a number of Tier 1 teams playing Tier 3 and 4 teams and the schedule can be wacky with multiple games in a week (or none at all). Nevertheless, in the Big 10, we can see some trends. The lower tier of the conference was supposed to be comprised of Iowa, Michigan, and Penn State. We could also lump Indiana in that group, but they are off to an undefeated start (against mostly small school competition) and we’ll leave them for future weeks. Even if the Hawkeyes, Wolverines, and Nittany Lions don’t figure to do much in March, we can find bargains in the basement in early December. Let’s take a quick look at these three teams:
Iowa Hawkeyes
In terms of both reality and fantasy, the Hawkeyes are a mess. One wonder if coach Fran McCafferty knew what he was getting into when he left Siena. He probably did. The team has lost three games, including to teams such as South Dakota State and Long Beach State, and the fantasy situation is hard to figure. Sophomore guard Eric May is the leading scorer at 13.3 points and has hit 60% of his three-pointers (9-for-15). He also provides 4.3 rebounds, but makes just 52.9% of his free throws. The 6-foot-5 sophomore has only played more than 30 minutes twice. Freshman forward Zach McCabe has also been hot from three-point land and has made 50% of his threes. He has only made 35.8% of his two-point shots, but those ratios will likely reverse as the season continues. McCabe is providing 10.5 points and 5.3 rebounds. The latest news out of Iowa City is that Cully Payne will be out 4-to-8 weeks after sports hernia surgery, so Matt Gatens and Bryce Cartwright will get more minutes. Gatens missed the first two games of the season with a wrist injury and has only hit two of his first 13 three-point attempts. He has the most upside on the squad. Cartwright spent his freshman year at Fresno State before playing for a junior college in 2009-10. He has scored in double-figures in his last three games and is averaging 9.3 points and 3.0 assists. Freshman center Melsahn Basabe is the Hawkeyes’ leading rebounder at 5.8 boards in just 20 minutes. He could be a keeper to watch.
Michigan Wolverines
Unlike the Hawkeyes, the Wolverine players seem to be finding their roles under coach John Beilein and Darius Morris looks like a fantasy star in the early going. The 6-foot-4 sophomore has provided 14 points and 7.0 assists through five games. His shooting has either been very good or just bad, but overall he been more good than bad in hitting 59.6% of his shots. Morris’ shooting will likely cool off during the season, but he seems likely to continue racking up assists. He had two consecutive games of double-digit assists and has been super. Freshman forward Jordan Morgan has also shown signs of being a decent fantasy player. When the 6-foot-8 Detroit native stays out of foul trouble, he is a good insider scorer and rebounder. In his best game against Gardner-Webb, he was 9-for-11 from the field and finished with 20 points and eight rebounds in just 21 minutes. Morgan is averaging 10.6 points and 7.0 rebounds, but has accrued four fouls in the Wolverines’ two most recent games against better competition (Syracuse and UTEP – both Michigan losses). Tim Hardaway Jr. came to Ann Arbor with plenty of name recognition. He started the season well, but like Morgan has struggled against better competition. The 6-foot-5 freshman has made just four of his last 20 shots against the Orange and Miners. He was just 1-for-13 from three-point land in those two games. He did show some potential in the early games with 15-point and 19-point performances. I had high hopes for Evan Smotrycz, but it looks like I was Pittsnogled. He is hitting just 34.4% of his shots from the field and averaging 6.6 points.
Penn State Nittany Lions
Coming into the season, the Nittany Lions looked like a one-man team for the second straight year. Talor Battle figured to soldier on against the enemy despite being just six-feet tall. The good news is that Battle has help this season and Penn State may be competitive in the Big 10 because of it. Battle continues to score well and is averaging 18.3 points (just a shade down from 18.5 points as a junior). He was held to nine points on Nov. 22 against Central Connecticut State, but has bounced back with a combined 45 points in his last two games by shooting 15-for-24 from the field. Battle is hitting a career-high 38.5% of his three-pointers. Battle’s assists have fallen off a little because of the presence of Tim Frazier. The 6-foot-1 sophomore has taken the playmaking burden off of Battle and is leading the team with 5.5 assists. He doesn’t do much for fantasy purposes beyond setting up the offense and was held scoreless in the Nittany Lions’ lone loss against Mississippi. Frazier has not scored in double-digits and is averaging just 3.8 points. He does have at least one steal in each game and is averaging 1.7 thieves per game. The team’s biggest surprise is senior Jeff Brooks. The 6-foot-8 forward has been a solid reserve through his first three years in University Park, but has exploded this year with 16.0 points and 7.5 rebounds. He is making 67.3% of his shots from the field, which is an unsustainable rate of success. In other words, if you can sell high on Brooks, you should do so and get a more established talent. David Jackson, meanwhile, has struggled with his shot out of the gate, so he may be a player to target. The 6-foot-7 fifth-year senior is making just 39.3% of his shots from the field, but is averaging 11.7 points. He should improve as the season continues and the focus switches to Brooks.