By almost any objective measure, the Big 10 heads into the 2010-11 season as the best conference in college basketball. Purdue and Michigan State have a lot of returning talent, Ohio State has talent and a top freshman, and Illinois, Wisconsin, and Minnesota will not roll over for anyone. With this much attention, it may be hard to make even one bold prediction for this conference. Yet, I will make three!
1. Northwestern will make the NCAA tournament
This prediction hardly seems bold because not a year goes by during which someone will say, "This is Northwestern's year." Maybe they are affected by the same malady that keeps the Cubs out of the World Series, but the Wildcats have never been invited to the NCAA tournament. They are the only Tier 1 team to have this distinction. So, what makes this season different? It all starts with junior forward John Shurna, who blossomed while Kevin Coble was out. Coble decided not to return to the hardwood, so all eyes turn to Shurna who averaged 18.2 points and 6.4 rebounds last year. Michael Thompson and Drew Crawford will form one of the better backcourts in conference and the Wildcats also have some functional bigs in center Luka Mirkovic and Davide Curletti. The fact that coach Bill Carmody seems willing to experiment with small lineups and man-to-man defense means this is the year that the impossible will be possible.
2. Evan Smotrycz will be this generation's Kevin Pittsnogle
Not much has gone right for John Beilein in his four years at Michigan. The Wolverines have not made the NCAA tournament and their best players from last year, Manny Harris and DeShawn Sims, have moved on. Beilein has stocked the coffers with a seven-player recruiting class that includes big names like Tim Hardaway Jr. and Jordan Dumars (a transfer from South Florida). Yet, it is Smotrycz, a 6-foot-9 small forward, who has the sweet three-point stroke that should fit Beilein's offense perfectly. There are plenty of open minutes for the Wolverines whose leading returning scorer is Zack Novak at 7.4 points. Hardaway Jr. will be the name to watch, but I think Smotrycz will get more minutes. Therefore, he will get more shots and may lead the team in rebounding (which may not be saying much). Michigan is in flux and someone has to lead the way. Maybe Smotrycz will restore honor for the Wolverines.
3. Maurice Creek will lead the conference in scoring
There are plenty of excellent players in the conference. Purdue's three stars have always had to sacrifice stats to win. Michigan State's top scorer, Kalin Lucas, will also have to distribute the ball. Wisconsin and Minnesota do not have individual scorers that are likely to top Creek. Creek's main competition will come from Penn State guard Talor Battle and Shurna. Battle averaged 18.5 points last year, but he may not be able to pay nearly every available minute again (he has averaged at least 37 minutes over the past two seasons). Meanwhile, Creek only played in 12 games last year before he broke his kneecap. He did make an impression during that time, including 31 points against Kentucky. Granted, the Hoosiers were blown out in the game and were not particularly competitive last season. Creek, who recently told the Indiana Daily Student that he is 90-95% back from his broken kneecap, will be back to 100% by season's start and will show off his diverse offensive game. Draft him accordingly.