I've honestly been stewing on this for at least a month. I'm certainly excited and looking forward to hoops season, but I've tried and tried to come up with bold, often outlandish predictions for the ACC to no avail. Yes, I could just type that Clemson will win the conference; but I want to have at least a shot at these predictions coming true. But with a deadline looming, here is what I've got. Agree, disagree -email me and tell me why!
1) Durand Scott will make First Team All-ACC
Bold enough for you? And no, I don't mean the font. Kyle Singler, Malcolm Delaney and Harrison Barnes should be locks to be on the all conference team, but that leaves two spots open. Jordan Williams seems to fit nicely, and if we assume a guard is needed to fill out the first team, I'll stab at Scott. Why will it happen? The Hurricanes lost their top two scorers from last season, and Scott is the most likely to elevate his stats. He scored in double-figures in nine of Miami's final ten games, including dropping 29 on the Tar Heels, and 21 on Duke. He also averaged 4.0 rebounds, 3.4 assists and 1.2 steals last season. No, I didn't have Scott in my preseason top ten, but those rankings were conservative. We are going bold here, baby! The talent and opportunity is there for the New Yorker to leap into stardom. Why won't it happen? A Duke bias. You won't find any of that here, but the fact of the matter is that Duke has a ton of guards and it's reasonable, maybe even probable that those with voting power will select Nolan Smith simply because of his name and what's on the front of his jersey. Fair? No. Sadly true? Alas, yes.
2) Duke will not repeat as National Champions, and is not a lock to win the ACC
I'll probably get into trouble this season for my anti-Duke ramblings, but read on, glance over their roster, and form your own opinions. The team is loaded and can score from a variety of angles. The previously mentioned Singler and Smith, paired with frosh Kyrie Irving and transfer Seth Curry should help the Blue Devils forget about Jon Scheyer. But on paper, this team looks awfully similar to that of all Duke teams of recent years other than last year's champions. Duke's success last season came from being big and physical as much as it did from reigning threes. They had four big bodies that could rebound, block or alter shots, and offered 20 fouls to give. As my friend and former colleague Mike Shepherd so often said, "Don't mess with the Zoubek." The 2010-11 Duke roster does not have replacement pieces for Brian Zoubek or Lance Thomas. Those two combined to play roughly 44 minutes each night. It is widely assumed that brothers Mason Plumlee and Miles Plumlee will simply drift over, and fill this gaping hole in the middle. I don't think it is that easy, and even if it is, who else plays on the blocks? Sophomore Ryan Kelly played just over six minutes per game last season, looked lost most of the time, and from my recruiting coverage I can tell you that Kelly is more comfortable on the perimeter. Freshman Joshua Hairston has a chance, but at 6-foot-9, 220 pounds, I can't imagine him playing a huge role down low for a team with championship hopes. The Blue Devils are more likely to play small, use their quickness and interchangeable pieces at guard, and slide Singler underneath more often than they'd really want to. Isn't that where he played as a freshman and struggled due to being out of position? The Blue Devils are the clear favorites to win the ACC, but come March this roster looks destined to be pushed around.
3) If not Duke, then who? North Carolina State
The easy choices here are North Carolina and Virginia Tech. The 'Heels certainly have the talent to emerge as the conference's second best team if all their young hype becomes reality. The Hokies are nearly the exact opposite - a veteran bunch that looks the same as last season's team. That team won ten games in conference play, but also doesn't have proven experience winning meaningful games. Add in the injury bug that is already circulating in Blacksburg, and Virginia Tech doesn't seem like the choice to make a leap. Enter the Wolfpack. They offer a perfect blend of returning, established talent (Tracy Smith, Scott Wood) and incoming super frosh (C.J. Leslie, Ryan Harrow, Lorenzo Brown) that if things gel as they could, this is a team no one will want to play. It's also just as likely things impload in Raleigh. The freshmen might not fit in with the upperclassmen and this thing could blow up in Sidney Lowe's then unemployed face. The ACC is definitely rebuilding, which creates the perfect storm for Lowe and the 'Pack to break through and be a top 20 team this season.