The Big 12 is a conference in transition. It will be reduced to ten teams in the next two years and every team suffered major personnel losses after the 2009-10 season. Nevertheless, I feel confident going out on a limb for my three bold predictions.
1. Kansas is still the team to beat in the Big 12
Every year, the media picks its newest darlings to unseat Kansas and win the Big 12. For the past six years, the media has been wrong. This season's trendy picks are Baylor and Kansas State. No matter what the media thinks, year after year, each one of these contenders has a hard time knocking off Kansas because they are not accustomed to being "the hunted". Meanwhile, Kansas spends every season being one of the biggest games on each of their opponents' schedules. The Jayhawks know what it's like to go into an opposing gym and get every team's best shot. This isn't to say that Kansas always wins, but they always know what to expect. This season, Kansas State goes from exciting, feel good story, to highly ranked team and with that comes expectations and a target. Every team would love to knock off a top ten team. The same goes for Baylor. Both Baylor and Kansas State are looking to build on their Elite Eight runs from last season. Will they stand up to everyone's best shot? I say no.
Kansas brings back great talent, and is able to replace the losses to graduation and the NBA. Assuming freshman PG Josh Selby gets cleared, he will slide into Sherron Collins' role. Cole Aldrich's role will be filled by Marcus Morris and Markieff Morris and Xavier Henry's spot will be filled by Tyshawn Taylor and Elijah Johnson. Meanwhile, Baylor loses Tweety Carter and Ekpe Udoh but adds Perry Jones. Filling the hole left by Tweety Carter is the large question. Oddly enough, the same hole is present for Kansas State. The Wildcats have to find a way to fill the role of Denis Clemente, which won't be easy.
Look for Kansas to rule the Big 12 again.
2. Iowa State will make the NCAA tournament
Don't look now, but during the offseason, the Cyclones added a new head coach in Fred Hoiberg, as well as a bevy of newcomers that will get Iowa State a tournament invite. Darion Anderson, a transfer from Northern Illinois, will be eligible immediately as a redshirt senior. As a three-year starter for Northern Illinois, Anderson amassed 1,152 points. "Jake" Anderson will help add leadership to the young team. In addition to Anderson, the Cyclones are still waiting on an answer regarding the eligibility of Minnesota transfer Royce White. If White is eligible, he will add a post presence that the Cyclones sorely lack. Add these two, along with a few others, to veterans like assist machine Diante Garrett, and you have a much improved team.
3. Texas Tech will surprise some teams
Look for Texas Tech to be another sleeper team. The only impact player that the Red Raiders lost in the offseason was Nick Okorie. Texas Tech returns big man Mike Singletary and guard John Roberson. As seniors, the two are Big 12 battle tested and are well equipped to guide the rest of the team. Everyone loves a senior led team, and the Red Raider starting five will likely be juniors and seniors. With such an experienced team, look for Texas Tech to finish in the top half of the Big 12.