Every season it seems that incoming freshmen are the biggest reasons for optimism in many programs around the country. The fact that only a few freshmen truly make their expected impact does not limit the anticipation at all. The proliferation of recruiting experts and scouts have only increased the hype of the newcomers; every fan thinks that their team's four- and five-star will be the next Kevin Durant or Carmelo Anthony.
In the fantasy world, understanding the true impact of freshmen is a key to winning a league championship. Many leagues require every team to start at least one freshman every week, which necessitates savvy drafting and foresight as to which freshmen will exceed expectations and which newcomers are bound to disappoint owners, fans and coaches alike.
Prior to covering recruiting three years ago, the only information I could base my freshmen analysis on would be various rankings and ratings from the dot com world. Now, though, I have seen the incoming freshmen play countless times during their high school and AAU days, making it easier to judge their true impact. As a result, you guys reading this are going to be the main beneficiaries of my new focus on recruiting; every week during the season, I will be penning (well, typing, not sure anyone actually "pens" anything anymore) a column discussing some of the top freshmen in the country.
It starts this week with my list of the top-10 freshmen in the country. Later in the month, I will reveal my under-the-radar frosh.
Note: For my top-10 freshmen, I only considered players who were ranked in the top-25 by either Rivals, Scout or ESPN. For the under-the-radar first year players, I will go outside the five-star realm to find some mid- and late-round gems.
Kyrie Irving, G, Duke Blue Devils
Although North Carolina's Harrison Barnes is the more highly-touted player, it would not be a stretch to say that Irving could be the best bet for ACC Player of the Year. He is an excellent point guard who can get into the lane on nearly any defender with the capability of finishing with contact or dumping the ball off to his teammates for baskets. He will take the lead guard position over for the Blue Devils immediately, but I wouldn't be surprised if having combo guards Nolan Smith and Seth Curry flanking him on the perimeter limits his statistics.
Jared Sullinger, F, Ohio State Buckeyes
Ohio State returns nearly every key player from last season - besides National Player of the Year Evan Turner, of course. That's where Sullinger comes in. He's nowhere near the same player as Turner, instead providing a bruising, physical presence in the paint. Sullinger has been a winner throughout his career, and his success will likely continue with the Buckeyes. Slightly undersized, he will still be able to be highly productive when it comes to points and rebounds. The bottom line is, Sullinger finds ways to be make an impact.
Harrison Barnes, F, North Carolina Tar Heels
The top-ranked high school player last season, Barnes is an absolutely fantastic scorer from the wing. He is difficult to defend because of his ability to score in a variety of ways. Barnes can take defenders off the dribble and also post up on the low block when a smaller opponent is guarding him. He can run the floor and finish in transition, and is also able to knock down shots from behind the arc. North Carolina needs a consistent perimeter scorer, and Barnes should be able to fill that void.
Patric Young, F, Florida Gators
This one will be an interesting case. Florida returns all five starters from last season, including three productive frontcourt players in Chandler Parsons, Alex Tyus and Vernon Macklin. However, it is going to be very difficult to keep Young off the court for too long. He is a dominant finisher in the post, getting baskets in traffic and off of offensive rebounds. Defensively, he can block shots with the best of them. At this point, Young does not have a litany of post moves, but his physical assets have been enough for him to be productive so far.
Fabricio Melo, C, Dion Waiters, G, Syracuse Orangemen
Both of these players are going to make major impacts, although Melo is the better known of the two and also more likely to start from Day One. Melo is an excellent offensive player, able to score around the basket with either hand, as well as having the ability to knock down face-up jumpers from the perimeter. The 7-footer is mobile and is only getting better. Waiters is an absolute scorer in the backcourt. He is nearly impossible to keep out of the lane and is able to finish in traffic with ease. With Brandon Triche and Scoop Jardine holding down the point guard spot, Waiters will be able to focus on scoring.
Perry Jones, F, Baylor Bears
Arguably the most physically-gifted player in the class, Jones will need to put it all together in order to reach his full potential. The 6-foot-10 forward is extremely athletic and can run the floor as well as anyone in the country. He improved his mid-range game as his career progressed, and is becoming more consistent. Defensively, he can guard the post and block shots. The only question mark with Jones is his determination and focus; does he have the work ethic to be the most dominant performer in his class?
Josh Selby, G, Kansas Jayhawks
Everything is lining up perfectly for Selby to be a monster fantasy contributor right off the bat. Sherron Collins has moved on, and Selby will immediately step in and be the starting point guard. He is an unbelievable scorer and can get to the rim anytime he wants. His ability to beat his defender off the dribble with a shifty crossover or explosive first-step is unparalleled, and he has the toughness to finish with contact in traffic. If his outside shot becomes more consistent, he will be one of the best offensive players at his position.
Cory Joseph, G, Texas Longhorns
First Avery Bradley, now Joseph. Findlay Prep guards who move on to Texas and take over the point guard position immediately. Joseph is more of a true point guard than Bradley, but has the potential to be a major fantasy contributor. He has excellent three-point range and knocks it down with extreme consistency, while also demonstrating playmaking and penetration ability. He is one of the best defensive players at his position in the country, which will only give him more playing time in the Longhorns' backcourt.
Brandon Knight, G, Enes Kanter, C, Kentucky Wildcats
John Calipari reeled in the nation's best recruiting class heading into this season, and Knight and Kanter will be the two gems of the class. Knight was the country's best guard last season, and his ability to handle the point guard position while also scoring from the perimeter and off penetration will lend itself well to a fantasy starter. Kanter, if he is cleared to play, has the potential to be one of the best big men in the country. He dominated the United States at the Nike Hoop Summit in April, and can do the same this season.
Tobias Harris, F, Tennessee Volunteers
Harris' work ethic and determination might be the most impressive thing about him. He went into the summer before his senior season as a fairly slow player without a position. However, he lost a ton of weight and drastically improved his quickness. As a result, he became an inside-outside forward that is nearly impossible to defend. Harris can knock down perimeter shots with consistency and is also highly effective around the basket, whether it is scoring or rebounding the ball. He will get a chance to make an impact immediately.
Disappointments: Sure, he has the potential to be a factor down the road, but I don't foresee forward Adreian Payne of Michigan State making a noteworthy impact this season. He has great athleticism and height, but he is far too skinny and weak to bang down low in the Big Ten. He lacks consistent low-post moves, which will limit his ability to score points in the paint. Another player who won't live up to the hype is Memphis' shooting guard Jelan Kendrick. Aside from the rumors that he wouldn't accompany the team to the Bahamas and won't return to the team at all, Kendrick is not going to be productive enough to be a fantasy factor. He is a versatile perimeter player with the size to be a wing and the passing ability to be a point guard. However, he is not a consistent outside shooter and has trouble controlling the ball when driving to the lane.
Don't forget: Analysts differ on forward Keala King of Arizona State. Some see him as an undersized forward who isn't big enough to score consistently inside, while others see him as a point guard who isn't quick enough. To be honest, I don't really care what position he plays for the Sun Devils; he is going to make an impact. He is crafty and is outstanding at finishing in the lane against bigger players or in traffic. King has a good mid-range game and is also a very good rebounder. Memphis' Joe Jackson is consistently ranked near the top of the point guard position for his class, but because he is not in a BCS league, he might fly under the radar. Don't let that fool you. He is unbelievably quick and is as good of a scorer as anyone at his position. He takes defenders off the dribble with ease and is an excellent finisher, with the ability to play above the rim despite his 5-foot-11 size.
Jeff Borzello runs the college basketball blog, March Madness All Season, and is the National Recruiting Analyst for the NBE Basketball Report. You can reach him at marchmadnessallseason@yahoo.com .