The Pac 10 conference is going to look quite different this year with Landry Fields, Quincy Pondexter, and Jerome Randle all out of eligibility. Those three players dominated the headlines and the stat sheets in the conference last season. With uncertainty comes opportunity. Most elite fantasy players love ambiguity because it gives you the advantage over your opponents if you do your research. My rankings take into account plenty of stats that your leagues might not, so make sure to know your scoring rules (fantasy rule #1) before your draft. Here is an early look at the best players heading into the 2010-2011 season.
1. Klay Thompson, G/F, Washington State Cougars
2009 Stats: 19.6 pts, 5.1 rebs, 2.3 asts, 76 threes and 44 stls
Thompson is the league’s leading returning scorer after finishing third last year but he isn’t a one-trick pony. He showed a willingness to crash the glass, dish the rock, and get into passing lanes. He absolutely torched non-conference opponents last year but wasn’t nearly as efficient in conference play. He spent this summer playing for the U19 Team USA squad and really impressed with his outside shot which is a good sign since he only shot 41% last year. Even a slight increase in his shooting percentages should put him in amongst the top scorers in the country.
2. Derrick Williams, F/C, Arizona Wildcats
2009 Stats: 15.7 pts, 7.1 rebs, 57.4% FG
Sometimes recruiting rankings are wrong. Williams was the best freshman in the conference and he wasn’t even the most heralded of the newcomers in Tucson last season. He set a school record with nine 20-point games last season and should be the best big man in the conference this season. He finished in the top eight in the conference in scoring, rebounding, FG%, and free throw attempts last season. I thought about putting him first but he really needs to pick up his peripheral stats (less than one assist, steal, and block per game) to become an elite fantasy force.
3. Isaiah Thomas, G, Washington Huskies
2009 Stats: 16.9 pts, 3.9 rebs, 3.2 asts, 65 three’s and 37 stls
Thomas can be a great fantasy option but he must keep the mindset he had in the NCAA Tournament last year. As much as I bashed him last year, it was great watching him help the Huskies reach the Sweet 16. He dished out 19 assists and only had seven turnovers in those games. His assist to turnover ratio in the regular season was about even last year and that is unacceptable for a player as talented as Thomas. If, and it’s a big if considering the Huskies will need to replace Quincy Pondexter’s scoring, he keeps the mindset of setting up his teammates he could win Player of the Year honors in the conference. He could also go in the other direction and try to get 20 points a game. While both are valuable, the scoring usually comes very inefficiently and could cause his owners some sleepless nights.
4. Nikola Vucevic, F, USC Trojans
2009 Stats: 10.7 pts, 9.4 rebs, 1.2 asts, 39 blks and 18 stls
Vucevic led the conference in rebounding and recorded 10 double-doubles last season. The Trojans offensive system will probably keep him from scoring a ton of points, but he is efficient when he receives offensive opportunities. He has shot over 50% in both of his seasons in Southern California and won’t be a nuisance to your free throw percentage. He also is working on his range after hitting only eight three-pointers last year. He isn’t a sexy pick, but getting a big man that will contribute in every category is highly valuable and can lead you to a fantasy title.
5. Jeremy Green, G, Stanford Cardinal
2009 Stats: 16.6 pts, 3.8 rebs, 0.8 asts, 93 three’s and 24 stls
Green didn’t really offer the fantasy community much outside of points and threes last season. Green spent most of his season on the wing waiting for the defense to collapse on Landry Fields. Without Fields taking up most of the defensive attention, it will be imperative that Green works on creating his own shot. He will need to become a better ball handler to escape double-teams and up his assist totals. He will probably always struggle with high field goal percentage (40% last season) due to the amount of three-pointers he shoots. Incredibly, 54% of his field goal attempts last season where from behind the arc. The opportunity is there for him to fill out a couple more stat categories, but make sure you have some other categories taken care of before selecting him.
6. Tyler Honeycutt, F, UCLA Bruins
2009 Stats: 7.2 pts, 6.5 rebs, 2.7 asts, 39 stls and 31 blks
Honeycutt missed the first six games of the season with a stress reaction in his right tibia. Once he became a regular in the starting lineup he showed signs of becoming a fantasy monster. Although he isn’t going to become an elite scorer he showed the ability to do just about everything on the court. He has the ability to get a couple of triple-doubles and terrorize opponents on the defensive end. He finished the season in the top eight in the conference in rebounds, steals, and blocks. He also posted season-highs of 18 points, 13 rebounds, nine assists, three steals and five blocks. He isn’t going to make any other owners ooh and ah when you pick him, but watch him fill out category after category on your way to the top of the standings.
7. Ty Abbott, G, Arizona State Sun Devils
2009 Stats: 12.0 pts, 4.4 rebs, 1.6 asts, 78 three’s and 30 stls
Abbott had a scorching January last season (18.6 points, 7.0 rebounds, and 3.5 triples) but floundered down the stretch. His season averages should go up this year as he should be locked into the starting lineup all season. With backcourt mate Derek Glasser graduating, Abbott could be asked to handle the ball more. Fantasy owners will want him to continue to crash the boards and drill three-pointers as that is where his value ultimately lies. I could easily see him ending the season with averages of 15 points, five rebounds, three assists, and hitting 75 treys. A huge bonus would be if he can make 45% of his shots even with all the three-point attempts. Not as much of an upside pick as a great option as a filler to compliment your squad.
8. Matthew Bryan-Amaning, C, Washington Huskies
2009 Stats: 8.8 pts, 5.9 rebs, 54% FG, 54 blks and 37 stls
This ranking has a lot to do with the way Bryan-Amaning finished the season and the lack of center eligible players in the conference. Over his last fourteen games last season, he averaged 11.8 points, 7.5 boards, and 1.4 blocks and that was with Quincy Pondexter around. He still won’t be the top scoring option for the Huskies but he should still post a strong shooting percentage to go with plenty of boards and blocks. He will have to stay out of foul trouble but he could be a double-double machine this year. Season averages of 14 points, eight boards and two blocks are within reach.
9. Reeves Nelson, F, UCLA Bruins
2009 Stats: 11.1 pts, 5.7 rebs, 65% FG
Nelson is a prototypical banger up front. He has a non-stop motor that can get under the skin of opponents and inspire his teammates. His effort allowed him to score 11.1 points and pull down 5.7 rebounds in just over 23 minutes a game last season. If he can get his minutes up to 30 per game (might be difficult as his all-out style can led to foul trouble) he can approach averages of 14 points, 7.5 boards, one steal and one block. The icing on the cake is that he knows his limitations on offense and will post a phenomenal shooting percentage. If you draft a high volume scorer early, draft Nelson to help you even out your FG%.
10. Reggie Moore, G, Washington State Cougars
2009 Stats: 12.7 pts, 4.2 asts, 2.4 rebs, 28 three’s and 42 stls
Moore is a lightning quick distributer that played well in his first season for the Cougars. He finished fifth in the conference in assists and scored in double figures 22 times. He needs to improve his outside shot but he showed he can get in the lane and finish last season. With Thompson returning, he won’t be asked to carry the load on offense but he could approach 15 points per game. Mix that in with a good shot to lead the league in assists and you have something worth owning in Moore.
Honorable Mention – Calvin Haynes, Malcolm Lee, Alex Stepheson, DeAngelo Casto, Malcolm Armstead, Josh Smith