For the first time since I have been writing about fantasy college basketball (and this will be my sixth year), there really isn't a pecking order at the top of the Tier 1 fantasy prospects. In past years, you could rely upon a Hansbrough or Harangody to be an easy first round pick. With the exodus of talent from the fantasy college basketball landscape this past season, it is very difficult to predict who will be at the top of board at the end of next year. I tend to be very conservative with early picks, so I am basing a lot of my early top ten on last year's production numbers. I am also risk averse when it comes to freshman, so there will likely be more top producers in this year's lot, but I just stuck one in the top ten (and he might be the top player at season's end). In future weeks, conference specialists will break down their top tens. Don't be surprised if they don't agree with my ratings. (I don't encourage consensus.)
1. Malcolm Delaney, G, Virginia Tech Hokies
If you were to say that Delaney isn't an overwhelming choice as the top pick, you wouldn't be overstating things. Let's stick to the positives: 6-foot-3 senior has provided at least 18 points, 3.7 rebounds, and 4.5 assists in each of his last two seasons. He topped 30 points four times last year and played a heavy 35.7 minutes. He is a volume shooter (38.7% from the field last year), and if your league counts turnovers, then you might want to look down the list for your number one pick given his three giveaways per game last year. Delaney will be a high usage player as a senior and he should provide a wealth of stats.
2. Talor Battle, G, Penn State Nittany Lions
It's a good thing that wins don't mean squat to fantasy players. In his stellar Nittany Lion career, Battle has produced big numbers while not leading his squad to many wins. The 6-foot guard provided 18.5 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 4.2 assists in his junior season as Penn State only won three conference games. The team has little else beyond him, which should make fantasy owners salivate over his potential as a senior. He scored north of 30 points three times last year and should have the green light to improve his scoring average in 2010-11.
3. Howard Thompkins, F, Georgia Bulldogs
Like Battle, Thompkins toiled in obscurity at the bottom of his conference. As the only SEC representative on this list (he may be eclipsed by some of the one-and-doners at Kentucky), the 6-foot-9 Georgia native provided 10 double-doubles and 17.7 points and 8.3 rebounds in his sophomore season. He improved in every meaningful statistic from his freshman season and scored in double figures in all but four games. Unlike Battle, Thompkins has some help in fellow junior Travis Leslie (14.8 points, 6.8 rebounds), so Georgia might be a squad to watch in team-based leagues.
4. Klay Thompson, G, Washington State Cougars
Thompson opened his sophomore season with a roar and ended it with a whimper. The son of Mychal Thompson scored at least 20 points in his first six games including 37- and 43-point outbursts. Granted, the competition was IPFW and San Diego in those early games, but the 6-foot-6 Thompson certainly looked like a world beater. Then, reality and the Pac-10 schedule hit. Even in its weakened state, the league continually challenged Thompson, and he was held to single digits six times in conference play. He still managed to average 19.6 points and 5.1 rebounds. He'll know his a marked man as a junior and it will be up to him to adjust.
5. Jeremy Hazell, G, Seton Hall Pirates
For fantasy purposes, I generally do not like one-trick ponies especially if their one trick is scoring. There is something about a guy who doesn't bring much to the table besides baskets that turns me off. Perhaps I should just get over it. Maybe I have by acknowledging Hazell who averaged more than 20 points for the second straight season as a junior. The Pirates had other scoring options, but Hazell continued to gobble points including a season-high 41 in the Big East opener against West Virginia. Hazell only scored 1.7 points less as a junior than he did in his sophomore season despite playing five minutes less per game. Shine on, you crazy Pirate.
6. Jacob Pullen, G, Kansas State Wildcats
Pullen and backcourt mate Denis Clemente took the Wildcats on a wild ride in 2009-10. The high-scoring guard combo led the team to a two-seed and the Elite Eight before being beaten by Butler. What would have happened had Kansas State not needed overtime to beat Xavier two nights before? Now that Clemente has moved on, Pullen will have to do more. The bearded six-footer averaged 19.3 points and 3.4 assists as an off guard. As a senior, he'll run the point, get more assists, and still have plenty of opportunities to shoot. High usage equals fantasy production.
7. Harrison Barnes*, F, North Carolina Tar Heels
Perhaps the best way the Tar Heels can wipe away the awful stench of the 2009-10 season is by giving their latest freshman phenom the ball and staying out of his way. The 6-foot-8 small forward is a highly skilled offensive player and should be the newest star on Tobacco Road from the opening tip. The top rated incoming freshman by Rivals.com should be a one-and-done type talent, but the same things were said about John Henson last year. Maybe that's not a fair comparison because Barnes has a much greater opportunity, but you never know with freshmen. I'll continue to pass them up (unless I am in a league in which I have to play a first year player).
8. JaJuan Johnson, F/C, Purdue Boilermakers
After writing an entire series of columns last year about the dearth of centers in college basketball, I'd be remiss if I didn't mention the best returning center. Johnson has improved steadily in his four years in West Lafayette and maybe he'll be the leading fantasy producer of the three fourth-year Boilermakers. Robbie Hummel is coming off an injury, and E'Twaun Moore would be wise to dump the ball into his postman. Johnson provided 15.5 points on 50.7% shooting to go along with 7.1 rebounds and 2.1 blocks. His lanky frame is starting to fill out and he could lead the Boilermakers to untold heights.
9. Kemba Walker, G, Connecticut Huskies
I really thought Walker would break out last year and looking at his stats, maybe I was right. Or maybe my expectations were just a bit elevated. The 6-foot-1 sophomore provided 14.6 points, 4.3 rebounds, and 5.1 assists. With more offensive responsibility, his field goal percentage fell precipitously to 40.3%. As a junior, Walker won't have Jerome Dyson or Stanley Robinson to help out, so the onus will be on him. He may get some help in the backcourt from freshman Shabazz Napier and talented freshman Roscoe Smith could take some of the scoring load.
10. Kyle Singler, F, Duke Blue Devils/Robbie Hummel, F, Purdue Boilermakers
I have put these two players together not because their teams met in the NCAA tournament or the color of their skin, but because I couldn't decide between them. Of the two, Singler will likely be rated higher coming into the season because he is coming off a championship season, while Hummel is coming off a torn ACL. Yet, I think they will produce similar numbers in their senior seasons. Singler will have to vie with freshman Kyrie Irving and the improving Mason Plumlee. Singler produced 17.7 points and seven boards last year and I think he'll produce similar numbers. Hummel averaged 15.7 points and 6.9 rebounds and he'll share the load with the aforementioned Johnson and Moore. I like Hummel to produce slightly more well-rounded numbers than Singler, but they should be even overall.