While we at College Fantasy Hoops Insider generally focus on college basketball, I think we can make an exception for the NBA draft. Who knows more about the incoming class of recruits to the NBA than fantasy college basketball "experts?" That question was rhetorical, so there is no need for you to answer. As such, I've looked into my crystal ball and have made a forecast for this year's draft. Last year, I did pretty well - hitting on Brandon Jennings and Hasheem Thabeet (who I figured wouldn't do much), but I was quite wrong about Tyreke Evans, the Rookie of the Year, and the Timberwolves' desire to select every point guard available. This year, there is plenty of frontcourt talent to be had, but it all starts with the anointed one from Kentucky. Before I get into the lottery, I'd like to spend a few words on a pair of players that I don't like: Ed Davis of North Carolina and Patrick Patterson. Davis comes with some Marvin Williams stink on him as a player from UNC who was underwhelming on the court. His stats were decent, but he did not look great against Texas and Kentucky. Patrick Patterson could be a decent NBA player, but he was the fourth option on his team. He spent too much time on the perimeter for a big guy and was not terribly healthy in his first two years in Lexington. Now, on to the guys I do like.
1. Washington Wizards - John Wall, G, Kentucky Wildcats
Based on existing talent on the team, the Wizards deserved the top pick more than any team. After Gilbert Arenas was suspended, the Wizards most productive player was Andray Blache who had a fine second half of the season as the Wiz lost repeatedly. Somebody has to score. Now it will be Wall, who will lift the franchise. I don't expect Wall to push Washington into the playoffs in his first year, but he will make the team competitive and players like Blache better. What will be interesting is if and when Arenas comes back. I think the Wall-Arenas combination could be devastating, eventually. All in all, I think Wall is the best NBA prospect since LeBron and I have little doubt that he will win the Rookie of the Year.
2. Philadelphia 76ers - Evan Turner, G/F, Ohio State Buckeyes
Much like Washington, the 76ers seem set to take a player in Turner when their best player is a swingman: Andre Iguodala. That said, like Wall and Arenas, I think Iggy and Turner could be a devastating combination if they can figure out who will control the ball (with Jrue Holiday in the mix). I may be the only one, but I am not totally sold on Turner's NBA potential. This may be Tyreke Evans redux in that I don't think his point guard skills will be quite as potent in the NBA. That said, he is an intriguing player and has a lot of skills. One could even say he has a multiple skills matrix. He'll be a good player, but I am not sure if he'll be an all-star.
3. New Jersey Nets - Derrick Favors, F, Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
The Nets seem fairly set at two positions and they just happen to be the two hardest position to fill. However, I think stats on a losing team are not necessarily a good representation. Therefore, Devin Harris is likely overrated and Brook Lopez may or may not be an above average center. Favors came into the college season as the number one rated prospect by some outlets. Favors had a solid freshman season with 12.4 points, 8.4 rebounds, and 2.1 blocks, but his production was diminished by the presence of Gani Lawal who played the same position. With the 6-foot-10 Favors and Lopez in the post positions, the Nets could have one of the better frontcourts in the East for years to come.
4. Minnesota Timberwolves - Al-Farouq Aminu, F, Wake Forest Demon Deacons
This is where the draft wonks and I will probably divide. I love Aminu. At one point during the season, I said that I thought he was the second most talented player in the upcoming draft class. He doesn't have the same kind of ball handling skills as Turner, but I think he could be a prototypical small forward in the NBA. He may be more athletic than Turner, which means he could be a great defender. I also think his offensive potential is high and his perimeter shot can be developed. The T'Wolves are kind of a mess and it would be much funnier if they took another point guard, but Aminu makes for a big step up from Corey Brewer and Ryan Gomes.
5. Sacramento Kings - Wesley Johnson, F, Syracuse Orangemen
Cousins might be a higher upside pick than Favors or Johnson, but I think his petulant attitude will cause him to drop a bit further. I am not as high on Johnson as other people, but he did provide excellent numbers in his one year as an Orangeman. The 6-foot-8 small forward hit 41.5% of his threes and grabbed 8.5 rebounds. Defensive stats are skewed by the Syracuse zone, but he was active enough to contribute 1.7 steals and 1.8 blocks. With Sacramento, he'll form a solid swingman duo with Tyreke Evans and give the Kings a possible upgrade on Andres Nocioni. He'll also compete with former one-year Syracuse star Donte Greene.
6. Golden State Warriors - DeMarcus Cousins, F/C, Kentucky Wildcats
This makes too much sense and the Warriors would be silly to pass up Cousins. He could easily go as high as the second pick, but I think this is his basement. The Warriors already have a lot of high upside, low production players like Anthony Randolph, Brandon Wright, and even Andeis Biedrins, who is only 24 years old but is coming off of abdominal surgery. Unlike those players, however, Cousins possesses a low post game and ability to rebound that could make him an NBA all-star in his first three seasons. I think the concerns about his attitude are somewhat overblown, but I kind of doubt that landing in Golden State would be a good thing.
7. Detroit Pistons - Ekpe Udoh, F/C, Baylor Bears
The Pistons have lost their identity as a tough defensive team. Of course, signing Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva last summer did not help, but getting Udoh to come back to Michigan would be a step in the right direction. The former Wolverine blossomed in his first year at Baylor and averaged 13.9 points, 9.8 rebounds, and 3.9 blocks. He finished his college career in style with a strong game in the Sweet 16 against Duke (18 points, 10 rebounds, a career-high six assists, and five blocks). and figured there was nowhere to go but up. As a rookie, Udoh would battle with Ben Wallace, Jason Maxiell and Chris Wilcox for playing time, but his skills would quickly allow a place in the starting rotation.
8. Los Angeles Clippers - Luke Babbitt, F, Nevada Wolf Pack
If Blake Griffin can come back this season, the Clippers could have a decent starting lineup with Baron Davis, Eric Gordon, and Chris Kaman. Babbitt would fit into the small forward slot nicely and provide the team a nice upgrade over the Rasual Butlers and Steve Novaks of the world. I was a little surprised that Babbitt came out (and disappointed for one of my fantasy teams on which I had hoped for four years of production from the 6-foot-8 forward), but he has NBA level skills. He had a torrid January as he burned WAC competition repeatedly and finished with 21.9 points, 8.9 rebounds, and a 91.7% free throw percentage. It would be easy to lump him in with draft bust Adam Morrison, but there's more to a player than the color of his skin.
9. Utah Jazz - Greg Monroe, C, Georgetown Hoyas
It was slightly surprising that Monroe came back to school after his freshman season. The Hoyas did free fall out of the tournament in 2008-09 and Monroe made the most of his second year under John Thompson III. He averaged 16.1 points, 9.6 rebounds, and 3.6 assists. Even though the season ended with an embarrassing loss to Ohio in the first round of the NCAA tournament, the 6-foot-11 Monroe acquitted himself nicely with 16 points, 13 rebounds, and six assists before fouling out. Monroe fits the kind of high post center that fits Jerry Sloan's system, but he'll need to develop a better perimeter game. Like most young players, he'll be a work in progress. Unlike the rest of the players in the lottery, he would step into a winning situation.
10. Indiana Pacers - Xavier Henry, G, Kansas Jayhawks
Henry seems to be sliding in the eyes of NBA personnel people and I am not sure why. The 6-foot-6 guard stepped into a situation at Kansas where he was the third banana and was third on the team with 13.4 points and 1.9 threes. Henry did not look much like a freshman last year and has the type of strong upper body needed to guard opposing swingmen. With the Pacers, he would join former Jayhawk Brandon Rush to form a shooting guard combination with plenty of potential and size. Henry faded some down the stretch and only had eight points in the loss to Northern Iowa in the second round of the NCAA tournament. I think he is the rare player who may be better in the pros than he was in college.
11. New Orleans Hornets - Hassan Whiteside, C, Marshall Thundering Herd
Whiteside was not a big time recruit before he stepped onto the court for the Thundering Herd, but he quickly made scouts take notice. He was a dominant defensive presence and led the nation with 5.9 blocks per game. Granted, Marshall did not play any Tier 1 teams during the season, but you can't blame the schedule on Whiteside. He provided three triple-doubles in which he blocked at least 10 shots and averaged 13.1 points and 8.9 rebounds to go along with his shot blocking prowess. When I watched Whiteside, it was apparent that he had shot blocking skills as both an on-ball and help defender. With Chris Paul leading the Hornet break, Whiteside might get a chance to use his athleticism on the offensive end as well.
12. Memphis Grizzlies - Cole Aldrich, C, Kansas Jayhawks
One might say that in Thabeet, the Grizzles drafted their backup center last year. I can see them doing it again with Aldrich who may never escape the ghost of Ostertagg (enunciated by Bill Walton) for me. Aldrich is a plodding center who was able to use his size in college to dominate in the post. I don't see that happening in the pros, but some team will reach for him. Again, it isn't about skin color for me. I think Aldrich's career may have peaked against North Carolina and Tyler Hansborough two years ago. He had a nice sophomore season before being ignored for long stretches in his junior season. Maybe you can blame the rest of the Jayhawks for forgetting about their low post options (other than Marcus Morris, who may be a better pro prospect than Aldrich), but the big fella has to demand the ball.
13. Toronto Raptors - Paul George, G/F, Fresno State Bulldogs
While I am slightly leery of the player who puts up big stats for a losing team, George demonstrated enough in his sophomore season that he may overcome the Fresno State stigma. The 6-foot-8 swingman provided 16.8 points, 7.2 rebounds, 3.0 assists, and 2.2 steals for a team that went 15-18 in the WAC (yes, two WAC players in the lottery!). George missed four games during the conference schedule with a sprained ankle, but took little time assuming his statistical output upon his return. Toronto drafted DeMar DeRozan last year and shelled out big bucks for Hedo Turkoglu, but George could be a nice piece of their future.
14. Houston Rockets - Eric Bledsoe, G, Kentucky Wildcats
Houston has made some astute draft picks in the last few years of players like Aaron Brooks, Carl Landry (now on the Kings), and Chase Budinger. It's hard to know exactly how Bledsoe will contribute without Wall by his side, but it was clear that Kentucky's other freshman point guard had a lot of intriguing skills. The Rockets already have Brooks and Kyle Lowry on the roster, but the young Bledsoe might have a better balance of skills their either incumbent. Bledsoe averaged 11.3 points on 46.2% from the field to go along with 2.9 assists and 1.4 steals. Like Lowry, he plays with a lot of fire and like Brooks, he can shoot (38.3% on threes). Because he was the third option for the Wildcats, his path to the NBA is not as clear as some others, but he will make for an interesting player to watch.
15. Milwaukee Bucks - Gordon Hayward, G/F, Butler Bulldogs
I had to go one spot past the lottery because the Bucks are my team of interest. While I haven't been able to watch them much since moving away from Wisconsin, I keep careful track of them. This year, they outdid all expectations by making the playoffs and pushing the Hawks to seven games without their best player (although that might be more of a comment on the Hawks). With Andrew Bogut, they may have given the Magic a run for their money. Alas. If John Salmons returns, they will be set at shooting guard. If Ed Davis fell this far, the Bucks would likely snap him up. I, however, don't care for Davis and would like to see the Butler hero make his way to Milwaukee. He could be an understudy to Carlos Delfino for a year and help the bench rotation with some offensive fire power. He could be the player that Joe Alexander never was.