Two years ago, all four one seeds made it to the Final Four. Last year, we had the fairly regal group of two one seeds, a two and a three. On a side note of those four teams, two did not qualify for this year's tournament (North Carolina and Connecticut), one was bounced in the second round (two seed Villanova), and the other survives. That other team is Michigan State who managed to get to the Final Four by playing no top three seeds. Their opponent, Butler, played two double-digit seeds before beating the top seeds in the region. On the other side of the bracket, Duke held serve against its region's three and four seeds (Purdue and Baylor, not in that order) and is the lone one seed to hold up to its ranking. West Virginia knocked out Kentucky after beating threer double-digit seeds as well. The Big 10, Big East, and Big 12 are all represented with a Horizon interloper. Who will win? Who will have fantasy impact? Let's take a look:
Midwest
5. Michigan State Spartans
Whether the Spartans beat Butler or not, you can be sure the game will be close. Michigan State's four tournament wins have come by a total of 13 points, and the seven-point win over Northern Iowa was closer than the final margin. Tom Izzo's troops emerged from the Midwest Region despite playing their final two and a half games without star guard Kalin Lucas. A number of Spartans have stepped up in his absence to propel them to the Final Four. Durrell Summers has scored 80 points and canned 16 triples in their four tournament wins, and he's also contributed on the glass with 18 rebounds. Senior forward Raymar Morgan's late-season surge has continued, culminating in his double-double (13 points and 10 rebounds) and game-winning free throw against Tennessee. Over his last 10 games, Morgan is averaging 14.4 points, 7.8 rebounds, 1.5 steals, and 0.9 blocks while hitting 54.% from the field and 77.1% from the line. You could certainly argue he's playing the best basketball of his MSU career. Sophomore "glue guy" Draymond Green provides whatever the team needs and has assumed some of the facilitation of the offense with Lucas out. The Spartans have also gotten solid contribution in the last couple games from Delvon Roe, who is playing through a painful knee injury that will require off-season surgery. Lucas' replacement in the starting lineup, Korie Lucious, has been under the microscope since taking over at the point. He's had his ups (the buzzer-beating three to beat Maryland and a fantastic spin-move and fallaway to clinch the Northern Iowa game) and his downs (seven turnovers and 5 of 18 shooting in the last two contests). Still, Lucious has managed 18 points, nine rebounds, nine steals, and eight assists in his two games as a starter. He will surely be under constant pressure from the defensive-minded Butler guards. Fellow guard Chris Allen continues to play through a foot injury to provide backcourt depth. In their four-game run, Michigan State has shot extremely well from three-point range (40.5%) and the free throw line (73.6%). They've also excelled on the glass, outrebounding their opponents by a total of 30 boards and snatching 39 offensive rebounds. Without Lucas, the Spartans have to rely on offensive execution, and with 61 assists on 95 made baskets, they're clearly playing with confidence on that end of the floor. They'll need to protect the ball against Butler's tenacious defense while getting sustained contributions from Summers and Morgan.
West
5. Butler Bulldogs
In past NCAA tournaments, the homecourt advantage has been somewhat overrated. Texas A&M lost in San Antonio a couple of years ago and Baylor was not helped this season by playing Duke in nearby Houston. However, we have not witnessed a team that will play in its home city in the Final Four. While the Bulldogs won't be in their home gym of historic Hinkle Fieldhouse, the colossal Lucas Oil dome (where the NFL's Indianapolis Colts play) is just five miles away. Butler is already the Cinderella darling of this year's tournament, but to have a significant homecourt advantage might be just the thing they need to take this year's title home. Unlike their Final Four opponent Michigan State whose highest seeded opponent was a four (Maryland), Butler did their own dirty work in knocking out the West's top two seeds. After facing 12 and 14 seeds in the opening weekend, Butler knocked off Syracuse and Kansas State this past week in similar styles. Both games were close and the Bulldogs managed just 63 points in both affairs. They only shot 40.4% from the field against the Orange but only had seven turnovers in the regional semifinal win. Against the WIldcats, the Bulldogs shot better (46.7%) but had 20 turnovers. Their help defense has been impressive and they allow few easy perimeter jumpers. Frustratingly for fantasy owners, they also feature a different top offensive player in seemingly every game. During the regular season, Gordon Hayward took the lead role and has averaged a team-high 15.5 points. The 6-foot-8 sophomore has provided 18.5 points in the tournament and led the team in the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight rounds. Shelvin Mack scored 14 points in the first half against Syracuse and is the backcourt's best offensive option. Mack has scored in double figures in eight straight games and has added 5.5 rebounds in the tournament. Matt Howard was once this team's focal point, but he has been in foul trouble all season long. He did not crack double digits in the last three tournament games and was limited to 20 minutes against Kansas State. Willie Veasley and Ronald Nored round out the starting rotation and should not be overlooked. Butler played two Big 10 teams this season and split the two games. They lost to Minnesota, but beat an Evan Turner-less Ohio State. Butler is now 5-3 against Tier 1 competition as they head to their first Final Four. The loss of Kalin Lucas does not seem to have phased the Spartans, but Butler will need to play its best to oust Michigan State. The majority of the crowd will be on their side, but how long can this glass slipper stay on?
East
2. West Virginia Mountaineers
West Virginia has been one of the most impressive teams throughout the NCAA Tournament, although it did not face a single-digit seed until the regional final against Kentucky. Against the Wildcats, the Mountaineers held Kentucky to 4 of 32 from three-point land and hit 10 long-range shoots of their own. Not surprisingly, the forward trio of Da'Sean Butler, Kevin Jones and Devin Ebanks has carried West Virginia offensively thus far. Butler has struggled shooting the ball, going just 19 of 56 from the field, although he has knocked down nine three-pointers. Despite the inaccuracies, Butler is still averaging 17.3 points per contest in the Big Dance. He is also grabbing nearly seven boards per game. Jones was one of the most underrated players in the country all season, and he is showing why in the NCAA Tournament. He has scored at least 13 points and grabbed at least eight rebounds in each of the four contests, averaging 15.3 points and 8.3 rebounds. He has hit three three-pointers in each of the last two games, going 8 of 14 overall. Ebanks is another player who has come on strong in the NCAA Tournament. He struggled towards the end of the Big East Tournament, but is averaging 13.5 points, 8.5 rebounds and 2.3 assists in the Big Dance. He has also played well defensively, although his 12 turnovers in the last two games is a concern. Outside of those three, production has been sparse. However, guard Joe Mazzulla scored 17 points and dished out three assists before fouling out to help lead the Mountaineers in the win over Kentucky. He consistently got to the rim and beat Kentucky down-court in transition. With starting point guard Darryl Bryant out, Mazzulla has been key because of the Mountaineers’ lack of consistent guards. Bryant is expected to be back for the Final Four, though. Forwards Wellington Smith and John Flowers are averaging a combined 8.0 points and 6.8 rebounds in the NCAA Tournament. In the Final Four, West Virginia will need to continue to take care of the ball and knock down perimeter shots. Defensively, the Mountaineers have struggled guarding the perimeter and dribble penetration throughout the season, so the backcourt of Jon Scheyer and Nolan Smith could give them problems. The match-up of Butler and Duke's Kyle Singler could be key.
South
1. Duke Blue Devils
Duke enters the Final Four as the lone number one seed and played an extremely tall and tough team in Baylor to advance. Right away you'd have to think that Duke enters as the favorite to win it all. Some are saying they had the easiest road to the dance but as you can see by all the upsets there really isn't an easy road for anyone come tournament time. The Duke vs. West Virginia matchup is the more high profile of the two games and one could say this is the 'real' championship game. Both are strong rebounding teams and play a slower paced game. The Blue Devils play great perimeter defense and really limit their opponents on hitting the three. West Virginia likes to shoot the three but will need to create lanes and try to open up the floor. The Mountaineers have decent depth especially if guard Darryl Bryant is able to play through a broken foot. Duke will need all of the Big 3 three step up and play well. Jon Scheyer and Kyle Singler have been outstanding this season but have struggled at times during the tournament. Singler went 0 of 10 from the field against Baylor and Scheyer went just 1 of 11 and 5 of 15 against California and Purdue. Luckily for the Blue Devils Nolan Smith has picked up the slack as he poured in 29 in the Elite 8 contest against Baylor. West Virginia will struggle with Duke's ability to hit the outside shot (unlike Kentucky the Blue Devils won't go 4 of 32) and turnovers will play a crucial role in what should be an excellent defensive matchup. This Blue Devils squad is by no means the most dominant team in Duke history and doesn't have any truly elite NBA prospects but it's been all about how they've managed to come together as a team. They feed off one another and each player knows their role and where each guy is going to be on the floor at all times. They play tough defense, can bury the three, and have shown a great ability to crash the boards on both the offensive and defensive end this season. Add in Coach K to the mix along with his extensive experience and ability to get the most out of each of his players and this is a team that is destined to win. Chalk up another tournament championship for the Atlantic Coast Conference.
Contributions from Andy Bottoms, Jeff Borzello, Mike Shepherd, and Perry Missner