It's pretty amazing to think about. While my math skills aren't what they once were, it seems we've seen between 30 and 50 teams eliminated in the first four days of the NCAA tournament. What was once a shiny bracket of 64 (or 65 if you count the play-in game) has been reduced to 16 already. A one seed, two seed, and three three seeds all thinking about next year (or sullenly brooding over this year). We only have 15 games left, so let's took a look at who has survived.
MIDWEST
2. Ohio State Buckeyes
For a team that typically plays just six guys (and did in the first two rounds), the Buckeyes showed some nice depth to get to the Sweet Sixteen. In the opener against UC Santa Barbara, Player of the Year front-runner Evan Turner was held to just nine points on 2 of 13 shooting, but Jon Diebler and William Buford combined for 38 points while Dallas Lauderdale had 12 boards and eight blocks. In the second round against Georgia Tech, Buford had just nine points, but Turner bounced back with 24, Diebler stayed red hot, and David Lighty stepped up with 18 points. Now that Kansas and Georgetown have been eliminated, the rugged Midwest region is up for the grabs, and the Buckeyes would seem to be the new favorite. One area to watch against Tennessee is turnovers after the Buckeyes coughed it up 18 times against Georgia Tech, including nine by Turner. Through two rounds, Ohio State is shooting 33 of 41 (80.5%) from the line and 18 of 43 (41.9%) from beyond the arc. Leading the three-point charge is Jon Diebler, who has hit 11 of 22 in the tournament and has 29 triples in the last six contests. Led by Turner, the Buckeyes have become the new favorite to emerge from the Midwest.
5. Michigan State Spartans
The Spartans survived the first two rounds by a total of five points, but they were hit hard by the injury bug. Star guard Kalin Lucas scored 25 points in a first round win over New Mexico State but suffered what is believed to be a torn Achilles late in the first half of a second round matchup with Maryland. With fellow guard Chris Allen (foot) also injured, the Spartans were thin the backcourt to say the least. Enter Durrell Summers and Korie Lucious. Summers caught fire and canned four threes in the second half on his way to a season-high 26 points. Lucious hit three triples, including the game-winner as time expired. On the inside, Raymar Morgan continued his solid play with a total of 28 points and 13 rebounds in the two victories. Frontcourt mate Draymond Green controlled the glass with a total of 20 rebounds, and the Spartans ripped down 23 offensive boards over the two games. Like the aforementioned Buckeyes, Michigan State is also shooting well from the free throw line (72.3%) and three-point range (45.9%). With Lucas a virtual lock to miss the remainder of the season, the Spartans need more solid play from Lucious and more hot-shooting from Summers if they expect to advance.
6. Tennessee Volunteers
There may not be a more Jekyll and Hyde team remaining in the Dance than the Vols. Prior to the start of their conference tournament, Tennessee looked like a team poised to make some noise in March. Then the Kentucky Wildcats came looking for revenge and dismantled UT by 29 points. The selection committee gave the Vols a scary first round matchup, and many pundits (myself included) had them ticketed for an early exit. A week later, we are looking, again, at a different team. The Vols advanced to their third Sweet 16 in four seasons by defeating a solid San Diego State team and upset minded Ohio. Everyone seems to be clicking right now for the guys from Rocky Top. Guard J.P. Prince has suddenly found some consistency scoring 15 and 18 points in the last two contests, forward Wayne Chism is crashing the boards with authority (46 in his last five games) and has been aided on the glass by the emergence of center Brian Williams (he has the same 46 boards over the last five contests.) Prince and guard Scotty Hopson don't offer a lot of comfort as go to scorers, but both are more than capable of putting the ball in the hoop. Tennessee is really getting the job done defensively this year as well. They only give up 64.9 points per game while forcing nearly 17 turnovers. Prince's length on the perimeter could really disrupt Ohio State's Evan Turner and the Vols have the size and depth to control the boards. This is an intriguing matchup and Tennessee has the right ingredients for an upset.
9. Northern Iowa Panthers
Of all the upsets over the first weekend of the Big Dance, none were bigger than Northern Iowa's 69-67 win over top-seeded Kansas, which prompted me and countless others to send their brackets to the shredder. If not for a clutch three-pointer from guard Ali Farokhmanesh with 4.9 seconds left against UNLV, UNI wouldn't have even made it out of the first round. He has been the star so far for the Panthers, making 9 of 19 (47.4%) three-pointers and leading the team in scoring both games. 7-footer Jordan Eglseder has played just 18 minutes in each game but has 23 points and 15 boards. Point guard Kwadzo Ahelegbe has nine assists in two games and has done a nice job of controlling the game. Their slow tempo and solid defense clearly frustrated Kansas, who could have won the game had they played the first 35 minutes with the same intensity as the last five. On offense, they've been superb at the free throw line, making 36 of 42 (85.7%) from the stripe. They've also canned 40.0% of their three-point attempts.
WEST
1. Syracuse Orangemen
The Orange have reasserted themselves as one of the national title favorites after entering the NCAA Tournament on a two-game losing streak. They have rolled through their first two games, beating Vermont by 23 and then handling Gonzaga by 22. They are averaging 83.0 points in the tourney, but will face a stiffer defensive test in Butler, a team that will make the game a half-court affair. Wesley Johnson has been the key cog for Syracuse, averaging 24.5 points and 10.0 rebounds in the first two games, including a 31-point, 14-rebound effort against Gonzaga. Andy Rautins has provided outside production, hitting eight three-pointers and averaging 17.5 points per game. Rick Jackson is averaging 8.5 rebounds on the inside, while Kris Joseph is not thriving as effectively since being thrust into the starting lineup. Arinze Onuaku is likely to return from injury against Butler, which will put Joseph back on the bench. Brandon Triche has scored in double-figures in each of the first two games, while Scoop Jardine is averaging 11.5 points off the bench.
2. Kansas State Wildcats
Kansas State started the tournament off with a bang, blowing out Notrh Texas by 20 points and easily moving on to the Second Round. There, the Wildcats met Jimmer Fredette and the Brigham Young Cougars. The Wildcats had a little harder time dispatching pesky BYU, falling behind early but finally pulling away in the second half and winning by 12. Many had thought that Kansas State would have its hands full with the backcourt of BYU. What was the Wildcats biggest worry ended up being Jacob Pullen’s national coming out party. Pullen was able to lock down Fredette and turn his defense into fast breaks for the Wildcats. In sum, the MVP of Kansas State for the first weekend was Jacob Pullen. When he wasn’t locking down the opposing team’s best player, he was scoring, averaging 24.5 points for the two games. Up next for Kansas State is a rematch with Xavier. Earlier this season, in Manhattan, KS, Kansas State was able to beat Xavier 71-56. Kansas State will need their big men to play well and find a way to corral Jordan Crawford in order to win this one.
5. Butler Bulldogs
Perhaps it was the fact that people who filled out brackets had last year's first round loss to LSU on their minds when they looked past the Bulldogs and had UTEP beating them in the first round. If the Butler was good enough to make it past the first round, surely they wouldn't beat Vandebilt too. As it turned out, the Horizon champion was good enough to crush the Miners and fortunate enough to squeak past a feisty Murray State team in the second round. Shelvin Mack was the unquestioned star of the first round win with 25 points and seven three-pointers, but it was a true team effort in Round Two. The production of the Butler frontcourt has to be a concern. Matt Howard has averaged seven points and Gordon Hayward has only hit 6 of 21 shots. Those performances were not enough to knock the Bulldogs out in the first two rounds, but the team will need their stars to step in in the Sweet 16. Their next opponent, Syracuse, has obliterated its first two opponents and they were playing without center Arinze Onuaku. The Orange possess more athleticism than the four Tier 1 teams that beat Butler in the non-conference schedule (Minnesota, Clemson, Georgetown, and Tier 2 UAB) and may be the nightmare matchup for coach Brad Stevens. In order to extend their winning streak to 23 games, Butler is going to play with mind-blowing efficiency. Xavier and Kansas State will be afterthoughts and present similar problems as Syracuse.
6. Xavier Musketeers
Anyone who is surprised to see the Musketeers advancing to the round of 16 probably shouldn't be; it's their third in as many seasons. The question now becomes can they take the next step as a program and win one more game. The answer starts with star guard Jordan Crawford. The transfer from Indiana has rapidly made a name for himself, and if you haven't seen him play, please check him out Thursday night. In the first two rounds, the sophomore is averaging 27.5 points, six rebounds and three assists. You can make the argument he has been every bit as valuable to Xavier as Omar Samhan has been for St. Mary's. Yes, he's been that good. What he hasn't been is a one man show. Crawford gets help from backcourt mate Terrell Holloway and center Jason Love. Both players struggled in their opening round matchup against Minnesota, but rebounded nicely to combine for 27 points, 11 boards and four assists in beating Pittsburgh. Xavier starts three guards, with the last component being Dante Jackson. Jackson can be silent killer; he's scored nine points in each game in the Dance while hitting five threes total. The Musketeers will need every bit of that against a Kansas State team that can score, and hold opponents best players in check. Ask BYU's Jimmer Fredette how things went versus the Wildcats, and you'll understand how important the Xavier supporting case will be to this contest. Crawford is going to score 20-25, the question is if the rest of the team can contribute 40-50 points. If they can, Crawford just might be shooting over the Orange zone come Saturday. If they can't, Xavier goes back to the drawing board one more time in hopes of figuring out the Sweet 16 riddle.
EAST
1. Kentucky Wildcats
Things seem to be going nearly too well for the youthful 'Cats. In their opening two games, Kentucky destroyed East Tennessee State and Wake Forest by an average of 29.5 points! The Tournament's #2 overall seed is the highest remaining squad, and the odds on favorite to cut down the nets in Indianapolis. To further illustrate UK's terrific weekend, they shot 56.0% from the floor (69 of 123) and 40.7% (22 of 59) from downtown. If the 'Cats continue to shoot that well from three point land, and with that regularity, they are virtually unbeatable. We all know what to expect from freshmen stars guard John Wall and forward DeMarcus Cousins, but fellow frosh Eric Bledsoe's play over the weekend was superb. Thursday night, Bledsoe scored 29 points while hitting eight threes and followed that up with 13 points in 26 minutes Saturday. He wasn't needed much, because guard Darius Miller erupted for 20 points and nine boards against the Demon Deacons. Patrick Patterson had an up and down weekend however, going 9 or 10 in the opening round while scoring just four points against Wake. It seems as if this team knows when someone isn't on, and other are willing and able to step up in need. Of course in winning by 30 points, you could debate that need. In any event, the 'Cats look to be on a colision course with West Virginia and probably Duke. Cornell's veteran guards should keep things interesting for a while, but there is no way the Big Red can run with the Wall and company. Still a ways to go, but anyone interested in seeing this team take on the 'Cuse's 2-3 zone?
2. West Virginia Mountaineers
The Mountaineers have gotten off to slow starts in each of the first two games of the NCAA Tournament, but they have advanced by beating Morgan State and Missouri. Both teams are up-tempo groups, and West Virginia was able to survive despite not having consistent ball-handlers. They had a total of only 18 turnovers in the two games. West Virginia has been primarily a three-man team in the Big Dance, with forwards Da'Sean Butler, Devin Ebanks and Kevin Jones leading the way. Butler scored 28 points against Missouri, a nice bounce-back performance after putting in only eight against Morgan State in the first round. Ebanks was very effective in the opening weekend, averaging 15.0 points and 10.0 rebounds while also hitting 16-of-18 from the free-throw line. When he's on, he's a very difficult player to match-up with. Jones does not get as much pub as the other two forwards, but he is averaging 15.0 points and 8.5 rebounds so far. The rest of the team has combined for 48 points in the two games.
11. Washington Huskies
Just like last year’s Arizona Wildcats, a double-digit seed from the Pac 10 makes it to the Sweet 16. The Huskies have now won nine straight games and all of them were away from Seattle. They are hitting on all cylinders and are finally showing why they were ranked as high as tenth in the country earlier this season. They squeezed by Marquette in the opener thanks to a game-winning shot by Quincy Pondexter with 1.7 seconds left. In the second round they ran New Mexico off the court in one of the more stunning scores of the tournament so far. In the two victories the Huskies shot 51% from the floor, 55% from beyond the arc, and out-rebounded their opponent in both contests. The only negative from the first weekend was that they shot 58% from the free throw line, but that might have been an anomaly since they shot 72% during the regular season. Leading the charge in those two games was guard Isaiah Thomas. He played brilliantly with 34 points, 15 assists and only three turnovers. The Huskies will need him to penetrate the West Virginia defense and get easy shots for his teammates if they are going to keep dancing. Pondexter also played well scoring 36 points and pulling down 16 rebounds in the two wins. Those two guys are the mainstays of this team but they will continue to need contributions from Matthew Bryan-Amaning (26 points, 12 rebounds and five blocks) and Elston Turner (24 points and six three-pointers off the bench) if they plan on making it to Indianapolis. The styles of play for the opponents in the first two matchups were almost ideal for the Huskies. West Virginia is the type of team that can give the Huskies fits by slowing the tempo and limiting the number of possessions. The Huskies have already shown they can beat a Big East team (Marquette, who only lost to West Virginia by one point this year). One potential disadvantage is the location of this game. The game will be played in Syracuse and a dome can cause shooting percentages to plummet for teams that aren’t familiar with them. West Virginia shouldn’t have that problem as they are used to the Carrier Dome because they play in the same conference as Syracuse. The Huskies will need to pick up the defense and create easy scoring opportunities in transition if they are to pull off another upset.
12. Cornell Big Red
The story of the Tournament, Cornell has put on a tremendous display of offensive execution in the first two rounds. They have scored 165 points in only 119 possessions, which equals an unbelievable 1.39 points per possession. What makes that even more impressive is that it came against two of the best defenses in the country, Temple and Wisconsin. The Big Red are shooting 60-for-102 from the field in the NCAA Tournament, and have hit 17 three-pointers. Louis Dale has upped his scoring numbers, averaging 23.5 points and dishing out 5.0 assists. Ryan Wittman has continued his usual offensive prowess, hitting seven three-pointers and averaging 22.0 points in the first two games. Jeff Foote has provided inside balance, averaging 14.0 points and 7.0 rebounds, while Chris Wroblewski is putting up 10.5 per game. Kentucky will not go down as easy as Temple and Wisconsin did, due to the Wildcats' tremendous talent and athleticism, plus the fact that they are more of an up-tempo team than the first two opponents.
SOUTH
1. Duke Blue Devils
The Blue Devils coasted past play-in-game winner Arkansas-Pine Bluff with a 73-44 drubbing. Kyle Singler led the way with 22 and Jon Scheyer chipped in 13 and moved into the top 10 in scoring in school history. The road was a little tougher in the next round against the California Golden Bears but Duke swarmed them with their signature tough, in your face defense that Coach K preaches. Duke’s frontcourt proved to be the difference as they had no match for the size of Brian Zoubek, Lance Thomas, and the Brothers Plumlee (Miles Plumlee and Mason Plumlee). Zoubek led the charge with 14 points, and 13 rebounds while Nolan Smith added in 20 as Duke went on to win 68-53. Their Sweet 16 matchup against Purdue should come down the Blue Devils size in the middle. If Zoubek can have a repeat performance like he did against Cal, it’s going to be a long night for Purdue. With Singler, Smith, and Sheyer spotting up outside, the Duke frontcourt has the ability to hit the offensive glass hard and put in some second-chance points. E’Twaun Moore matches up well against the size and defensive play of the Blue Devils guards. He will need to play aggressively and drive to the bucket in order to open the game up and throw the Blue Devils off their perimeter defensive scheme. In the end, I think the Blue Devils have too much offensive firepower and size that they’ll be able to overcome a Purdue squad who is with Robbie Hummel and reach the Elite 8. They should find an enticing matchup against the winner of Baylor and Saint Mary’s and another trip to the Final Four is likely for Coach K and the Blue Devils.
3. Baylor Bears
Baylor was not spectacular in winning its two games against Sam Houston State and Old Dominion, but a win’s a win and up next for the Bears is red-hot St. Mary’s. Baylor was Baylor was able to ride an amazing game from Ekpe Udoh in the first round against Sam Houston, getting 20 points, 13 boards, five assists and two blocks. In the second round, LaceDarius Dunn carried the Bears past Old Dominion, scoring 26 points and adding six rebounds. As Baylor moves forward, they will need to find a way to get multiple guys contributing in the same night. Udoh will have his hands full with Omar Samhan, so it may be up to Dunn and his running mate Tweety Carter to pull them through to the Elite Eight.
4. Purdue Boilermakers
You have to give Matt Painter and the Boilers a ton of credit. After losing Robbie Hummel late in the season and getting embarrassed in the Big Ten Semifinals, it would have been easy to pack it in and feel sorry for themselves. Instead, Purdue staged a huge second half run to blow past Siena before having to hold on late for a 72-64 victory. They used a similar formula to knock off Texas A&M and got a game-winner from senior guard and leader Chris Kramer to pull out the overtime win. With Hummel out, the big question mark for the Boilers is on offense and who can score outside of JaJuan Johnson and E'Twaun Moore. Johnson had a huge game against Siena with 23 points and 15 boards but was held scoreless in the first half against A&M. He bounced back to score 11 points after the break and grabbed three more rebounds. Moore totaled 27 points in the two victories, but it's been the contributions of Kramer that have been the difference. In the two wins, he has 27 points, nine rebounds, and seven steals. They'll need his trademark defense and continued scoring if they hope to knock off top-seeded Duke in the Sweet Sixteen. Purdue will also need to maintain their defensive effort from the first two rounds, where they held their opponents to 34.1% shooting from the field and 28.6% shooting from three-point range while tallying 20 steals and blocking 13 shots.
10. St. Mary's Gaels
The Gaels showed the nation that Gonzaga isn’t the only team in the West Coast Conference that can play with the big boys after posting wins over Richmond and Villanova in the tournament’s opening weekend. This is a skilled team that shot 50% from the floor, 39% from beyond the arc, 74% from the free throw line and out-rebounded its opponents by 23 in the two wins. The leader of the team is center Omar Samhan. The 6-foot-11 senior is quickly becoming a national name due to his performance and personality. He was the star of first weekend after scoring 61 points and pulling down 19 rebounds. He could go a long way towards cementing his NBA stock with a strong performance against Baylor’s tough frontline. While Samhan was destroying teams on the inside, Mickey McConnell was quietly killing them from the outside. He scored 38 points, hit eight three-pointers, grabbed nine rebounds and dished out seven assists while playing in all 80 minutes in the two games. Matthew Dellavedova (20 points, 11 rebounds and five assists) and Ben Allen (12 points and 14 rebounds) continue to do the dirty work that allows the two stars to control the game. Baylor’s defense holds its opponents to only 38.4% shooting but doesn’t normally force a lot of turnovers. It will be interesting to see if Baylor takes a page from the closing moments of the Villanova game and tries to full-court press the Gaels. The key to this game comes down to Samhan’s ability to stay out of foul trouble, something he failed to do in the first two games. The country will be pulling for this Cinderella, but the crowd in Houston will almost assuredly be pro-Baylor.
Contributions from Andy Bottoms, Asa Tysseling, Chris Bennett, Jeff Borzello, Mike Shepherd, Perry Missner, and Tyler Holmes