The 2010 tournament is on! At CFHI, we have been waiting for the brackets all year. We've been discussing the teams, figuring out the bubble, and making guesses on who would march their way through the tournament. Now, we can synthesize all of that information into one document in which we analyze the 65 teams that have been entered in this year's Big Dance. There's no need for you to pour over a year's worth of statistics and results. We've done it for you. Read on and become educated in the Madness.
MIDWEST
1. Kansas Jayhawks (32-2, Big 12)
The Jayhawks enter the tournament as the overall number one seed. Throughout the season, Kansas entered every game with a target on their back. They only slipped up twice, both times on the road to teams in orange (at Tennessee and at Oklahoma State). Looking at the Lehigh Mountain Hawks, it doesn't appear that they wear orange, and seeing that they are facing a task that has never been completed by a 16 seed. Looking forward to Kansas' second round game, they will be playing either UNLV or Northern Iowa. Early in the tournament, teams will have to find a way to deal with the floor general Sherron Collins, big man Cole Aldrich and the rest of the weapons on the Kansas team.
2. Ohio State Buckeyes (27-7, Big 10) - The Buckeyes tied for the regular season Big Ten Championship but survived a pair of nailbiters in the conference tournament before blowing out Minnesota in the finals. Among my seeding gripes is the fact that OSU was considered the weakest two seed despite the fact that three of their seven losses came while Player of the Year candidate Evan Turner was out with a broken back. The Buckeyes are not deep at all, typically playing just six guys with big men Dallas Lauderdale and Kyle Madsen rotating down low and four talented wing players driving or shooting three-pointers. OSU was 7-3 against tournament teams in games where Turner was healthy, and his presence alone should get them out of the first two rounds. One potential second round matchup I find intriguing is Turner against James Anderson of Oklahoma State. That is, if the Pokes get past Georgia Tech.
3. Georgetown Hoyas (23-10, Big East)
Prior to the Big East Tournament, Georgetown was struggling to maintain its five-seed status. The Hoyas finished eighth in the conference and had lost four of six to end the season. However, all of that was erased in the conference tournament, as the Hoyas defeated South Florida, Syracuse and Marquette before losing to West Virginia by two in the title game. Georgetown has the talent to hang with any team in the country, led by the trio of Chris Wright, Austin Freeman and Greg Monroe. Wright is the key to this team at the point; when he plays well, Georgetown wins. Despite being diagnosed with diabetes a couple of weeks ago, Freeman has been rolling in the postseason. Monroe is one of the most difficult players in college basketball to match-up with. Jason Clark is the only other scoring option on offense. On the negative side, Georgetown's Princeton Offense and half-court style is conducive to inferior teams staying in the game.
4. Maryland Terrapins (23-8, ACC)
Ouch. A tough bracket for the Terps to fall into. Maryland finished second in the ACC by going 13-3 highlighted by their win over top-seeded Duke on Mar 3. They failed to grab a win in the ACC Tournament by falling to Georgia Tech in the second round and are looking to make a statement in their opening round matchup against Houston. With Greivis Vasquez at the helm, anything is possible for the Terrapins. Vasquez struggled out of the gate but quickly shook off the rust on his way to averaging 19.5 points, 4.6 rebounds, and an ACC leading 6.3 assists. The senior has the ability to take over a game and is more than capable of pouring in 30 plus on any given night. The Terps are well seasoned and have the benefit of having an excellent coach in Gary Williams who has led Maryland to an NCCA Title. An incredibly tough draw presents a matchup with top-seeded Kansas in the Sweet 16 and the odds are stacked against the Terrapins pulling off that upset. A great career for Vasquez should end there.
5. Michigan State Spartans (24-8, Big 10)
After starting out 9-0 in the Big Ten, the Spartans seemed destined to run away with the regular season title. But then Kalin Lucas hurt his ankle in a loss to Wisconsin, and the Spartans dropped the following two games to Illinois and Purdue. They rallied to tie with Ohio State and Purdue at 14-4, but they were subsequently bounced in their first Big Ten Tournament game. The Spartans boast five players averaging at least 9.1 points, led by last season's Big Ten POY Kalin Lucas at 14.9 points. The issue for Sparty has generally been finding a consistent scorer alongside Lucas, and Raymar Morgan has been stepping up late in his senior season. Michigan State's tournament history is on their side, and they seem to have a draw that can get them to the Sweet Sixteen facing WAC bid-stealer New Mexico State in the first round and likely Maryland in round two.
6. Tennessee Volunteers (25-8, SEC)
A tumultuous season in Knoxville that appeared to be on the brink of peaking came to a crashing end in their conference tournament. The Volunteers were winners of five straight and seven of their previous eight before being dismantled by Kentucky in the SEC semifinals. The same team the Vols had beaten with ease during that win streak took them apart when it mattered, and it will be interesting to see which UT team shows up against San Diego State. The selection committee appears to have weighed that loss to UK heavily, and you might be able to argue Tennessee deserves better than a six seed. That being said, the Aztecs represent a tough draw. All-SEC forward Wayne Chism elevated his game this past week (13.7 points, 9.7 boards, up from a 12.5, 7.1 season average) and his continued reemergence will be paramount. While certainly capable of making a run themselves, this team looks primed for an upset. SDST comes in hot after winning their conference tournament, and the Vols don't do anything offensively particularly well. Only hitting 66.9% from the charity stripe, and 31.3% from downtown, the Vols can't afford to fall behind. It's amazing that one loss in a conference tournament can turn a potential sleeper into a potential bust, but use caution when advancing Tennessee.
7. Oklahoma State Cowboys (22-10, Big 12)
Oklahoma State finished the season tied for sixth in the Big 12 Conference. They boast wins over overall number one seed Kansas, two-seed Kansas State and three seed Baylor. The Cowboys have the leading scorer in the Big 12, James Anderson. Anderson can get hot and quickly put points on the board with his slashing ability as well as his jump shot. However, the Cowboys don't have much size up front, their tallest player that plays major minutes is 6-foot-8, but they make up for it with their shooting and guard play. Oklahoma State's first round opponent is Georgia Tech. If they can play the way they did against the state of Kansas, they should be able to move on and have a shot at the two seed Ohio State.
8. UNLV Runnin' Rebels (25-8, Mountain West)
Through the Mountain West conference schedule, UNLV was streaky. They opened by losing two of their first four (albeit their wins were over New Mexico and San Diego State), then won five in a row. A three-game losing streak ensued, followed by a five-game winning streak that included the dregs of the conference and was culminated by a semifinal win over BYU. The Rebels only scored 45 points and shot 32.7% from the field against the Aztecs in the Mountain West final, but that may have been a fluke. They'll face another slow-paced team in the first round with Northern Iowa. UNLV may not have the same size or veteran leadership as UNI, but the Panthers will have a hard time matching up against Tre'Von Willis, who averaged 17.7 points, 3.9 rebounds, and 4.5 assists. He'll need to have a big game to get UNLV into a game against Kansas.
9. Northern Iowa Panthers (28-4, Missouri Valley)
The Panthers won the Missouri Valley regular season crown by three full games and proceeded to win the Conference Tournament title as well. They have been considered one of the top non-Tier 1 teams for most of the season and have spent time in the Top 25. UNI will be making its second straight appearance in the Big Dance, and they lost by just five points to Purdue in the opening round last year. Thanks in part to their slower tempo, the Panthers are second in the nation in points allowed at just 54.0 per game. Northern Iowa is a veteran team with two solid inside players in Jordan Eglseder and MVC Player of the Year Adam Koch and a pair of veteran guards in Ali Farokhmanesh and Kwadzo Ahelegbe. They faced only two tournament teams all season, beating both Old Dominion and Siena.
10. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (22-12, ACC)
Georgia Tech is riding high after reaching the finals of the ACC Tournament and giving Duke a run for their money. They came up short in the end but their run to the finals helped them seal the deal on a Tournament bid. Freshman phenom Derrick Favors has stepped up his game late this season and has quickly become the go-to-guy for the Yellow Jackets. It's a lot to ask for the youngster to put this team on his shoulders and lead them through a difficult bracket. The draw isn't in their favor having to go up against a strong team in #7 seeded Oklahoma State led by James Anderson. The will be one of the most exciting opening round matchups with either team having a chance to pull a potential upset in the second round against Ohio State. Sorry Yellow Jacket fans, I see a quick exit in the opening round.
11. San Diego State Aztecs (25-8, Mountain West)
The Aztecs made the tournament by the hairs on coach Steve Fisher's chin by rolling through the Mountain West tournament. They won their first two tournament games by a combined four points, before beating in a defensive struggle by 10 in the championship. The forward-heavy team won nine of its last ten games and certainly heads to the tournament hotter than their first round opponent, Tennessee. Freshman forward Kawhi Leonard leads the team in scoring (12.8 points) and rebound (9.9) and had 16 points and 21 rebounds in the championship win over the Runnin' Rebels. The Aztecs also can battle the Volunteers' size with Malcolm Thomas and Billy White. The Vols will have an advantage in the backcourt, but they haven't seen the likes of Leonard and his host of forwards.
12. New Mexico State Aggies (22-11, WAC)
Don't let the 22-11 record cloud your judgment. This team was hurt by the books this season as two of their talented forwards missed parts of the season with eligibility issues. This team has talent galore and could be poised to make a run. The Aggies average 78.6 points per game and make 8.5 threes which is tied for twelfth in the country. They have five players that average double figures in points and three guys that grab more than six rebounds. So why I am hesitant to advocate them as a Cinderella? Well for starters they were the worst defensive (77.8) and rebounding team (-2.1) in the WAC. Those two stats show a lack of toughness which is not what you want when your opening round opponent is Michigan State.
13. Houston Cougars (19-15, Conference USA)
Each year a team gets hot just at the right time and does away with a mediocre regular season to bloom in the conference tournament. This season that team in Houston. The Cougars boast one of the best statistical players in the country: Aubrey Coleman. The 6-foot-4 senior guard led the nation in scoring at 25.6 points and provided 7.4 rebounds and 2.7 steals. In the Cougars' four-game tournament run, Coleman averaged 22.5 points and played 37 minutes per game. He'll likely be matched up against Greivis Vasquez in the first round and that should be a game to watch. The Terps will have a major advantage on the inside, but if Coleman is able to bother Vasquez like he did Elliot Williams and Randy Culpepper in the conference tournament, things could get interesting.
14. Ohio Bobcats (21-14, MAC)
In watching the Bobcats run through the MAC Tournament, they certainly didn't look like a team that finished below .500 in conference play. Between injuries, suspensions, and a 0-4 start in the MAC, they certainly overcame a great deal to make their first tournament appearance since 2005. Third-leading scorer Steven Coleman was lost with a hand injury just 10 games into the season, and fourth-leading scorer DeVaughn Washington was suspended for five games in the middle of the season. Finally, Jay Kinney was kicked off the team in February. Still, the Bobcats boast four double-digit scorers, led by former Indiana Hoosier by way of UAB, Armon Bassett. He scored 116 points in the four MAC Tournament games and will definitely give opponents fits. The Bobcats were 0-2 against tournament teams, losing road games to Pittsburgh and Robert Morris. Georgetown is a strong three seed, so OU's stay in the tournament may be short-lived.
15. UC-Santa Barbara Gauchos (20-9, Big West)
The Gauchos are making their first tournament appearance since the 2001-2002 season. They got off to a rough start and entered conference play with a record of 5-5, but they finished the season winning nine of their last 10 games. They are going to have a tough time getting past first round opponent Ohio State because of two main issues; youth and size. The Gauchos start four sophomores which is an awful lot of inexperience when it comes to playing more talented teams. Their front line goes 6-foot-5, 6-foot-5, and 6-foot-7 and as a result they were the worst rebounding team in the conference finishing with a rebounding margin of -2.3. They don't have any signature wins or eye-popping stats that would suggest they can get past the Buckeyes.
16. Lehigh Mountain Hawks (22-10, Patriots)
Lehigh followed up their regular season title in the Patriot League by winning the tournament championship over rival Lafayette, never trailing in the finals. Among their top four scorers (all of whom average at least 9.6 points), there's a mix of two freshmen and two seniors, led by super frosh C.J. McCollum. The undersized Mountain Hawks will have to rely on three-point shooting if they are to spring an upset in the Big Dance, which is not going to happen against the top-seeded Jayhawks. Still, they shoot 40.0% from deep as a team then. Lehigh was 0-1 versus tournament teams during the regular season.
WEST
1. Syracuse Orange (28-4, Big East)
Syracuse is going to be one of the most talked-about teams heading into the NCAA Tournament. The Orange were passed by Duke in terms of the third No.1 seed, and will face a tough second-round battle with Gonzaga or Florida State. Wesley Johnson is still hampered by a hand injury, and big man Arinze Onuaku is unlikely to play in the first weekend due to a knee injury. Furthermore, Syracuse lost its last two games of the season, to Louisville and Georgetown. The Orange are very good at both ends of the floor, but they struggle with turnovers and are also not dominant on the defensive glass. Johnson is one of the best players in the country, while Andy Rautins has improved drastically this season. Onuaku and Rick Jackson are solid down, and Kris Joseph is one of the top sixth men in the country. The point guard tandem of Brandon Triche and Scoop Jardine is the key.
2. Kansas State Wildcats (26-7, Big 12)
Kansas State finished second in the Big 12 regular season and looks to build on their good play in the post season. Kansas State is led by two crafty guards in Jacob Pullen and Denis Clemente. Clemente is as fast as any guard in the country and as fiery of a competitor as his coach. Kansas State's best kept secret is its frontcourt. Kansas State led the Big 12 in offensive rebounding and when they are firing on all cylinders, they can kill a team on the boards. Kansas State's destiny depends on this frontcourt of Jamar Samuels, Curtis Kelly and Dominique Sutton. The Wildcats will face North Texas in the first round. Assuming they can get past the Mean Green, they will likely face BYU, which could be an excellent second round matchup.
3. Pittsburgh Panthers (Big East 24-8, 13-5)
One of the biggest surprises of the season, Pittsburgh shook off the loss of four starters and still managed to get a top-three seed in the NCAA Tournament. Prior to the Panthers' loss to Notre Dame in the conference tournament quarterfinals, they had won eight of their last nine to end the season. They are a slow-down team that loves to work the shot clock and lock teams down on the defensive end. Offensively, they rely on Ashton Gibbs and Brad Wanamaker, two all-around guards who can really fill it up and score in a variety of ways. Jermaine Dixon and Gilbert Brown are versatile wings, while big man Gary McGhee is a key on the inside. Oakland has a solid starting five, and center Keith Benson could dominate the interior. Pitt cannot overlook the Golden Grizzlies.
4. Vanderbilt Commodores (24-8, SEC)
It's not just the time that has elapsed since the Commodores ran off ten straight victories between mid-December and the end of January. Vanderbilt has been a picture of inconsistency in a mediocre SEC once they entered February. They've mixed a moral victory against Kentucky (a two point loss) with defeats at Georgia and versus South Carolina. For a major conference to only place four teams in the Dance, you have to view Vanderbilt's record with some level of skepticism. With that being said, the 'Dores are 5-2 against Tournament teams and are certainly capable of beating any team in this region. They can come at you from a variety of angles, with three guards capable of producing, a front line that can score and rebound, and a few athletic wing who can do a bit of it all, consider the 'Dores the ultimate wildcard. A first round exit wouldn't be surprising. Nor would an upset of Syracuse in the round of 16. Are you feeling lucky?
5. Butler Bulldogs (28-4, Horizon)
No team dominated their conference like Butler. They demolished Horizon opponents in the regular season for a perfect 18-0 record and pummeled Wisconsin-Milwaukee and Wright State in the conference tournament. Swingman Gordon Hayward led the team with 15.4 points and 8.5 rebounds, but had to miss the season finale with a stiff back. Junior forward Matt Howard had a mysteriously poor season and could not stay out of foul trouble. He scored 17 or more points in four of his last six games but his averages of 12.5 points and 5.4 rebounds leave a lot to be desired. The Bulldogs face a healthy challenge to keep from getting knocked out in the first round for the second consecutive year. UTEP has the kind of size that has posed problems for Butler against teams like Clemson and Minnesota in the early season. If they can beat the Miners, a tough game against Vanderbilt awaits.
6. Xavier Musketeers (24-8, Atlantic 10)
If you are looking for a "lower" seeded team to make a run to the Sweet 16, Xavier deserves a look. This team is battle tested, albeit battle weary. All eight of their losses came to NCAA tournament teams, and they all came on neutral or opposing teams' floors. Now that you know why Xavier can't beat good teams, now understand why they can. It starts with G Jordan Crawford's scoring ability (19.7 points) and is aided by center Jason Love's near double-double averages (11.9 points, 8.6 boards.) This team averages exactly 80 points and shoots the three ball solidly (37.2%). Xavier should handle a suddenly hot Minnesota team, and are more than capable of playing with Pittsburgh. The Atlantic 10 didn't get a lot of respect from the selection committee, and their three representatives are out to prove that group wrong. At least one from this conference makes the Sweet 16, and Xavier's path looks inviting.
7. BYU Cougars (29-5, Mountain West)
Not that long ago, BYU was considered a good bet to be a top three or four seed. They only lost once in the non-conference section of their schedule (and beat all three Tier 1 teams they faced - Arizona, Arizona State, and Nebraska - none of whom made the tournament), but they were unable to defeat New Mexico and crashed out of the Mountain West tournament in the semifinals against UNLV. The team is led by scoring ace Jimmer Fredette who proved he was healthy in tournament with 75 points in two games. Jackson Emery and freshman Tyler Haws round out a solid backcourt. Against Florida, BYU will need to neutralize the Gators' size advantage and continue to make a high percentage of their three-pointers. The Cougars have made the last three tournament, but lost in the first round each time.
8. Gonzaga Bulldogs (26-6, West Coast)
As anyone who follows college basketball knows, the Bulldogs aren't your normal mid-major. They have wins over Wisconsin, Cincinnati, Illinois, Memphis, and Oklahoma. Needless to say, they won't fear their Florida State. They average 77.6 points and shoot 49.4% from the floor (5th in the country) but appear to lack an athletic penetrator that can create shots against tough defenses. Depth may be an issue as freshman guard Mangisto Arop broke his foot in the WCC Tournament and is out for the season. If they get past the Seminoles they will have a difficult time with Syracuse because they aren't a great three-point shooting team.
9. Florida State Seminoles (22-9, ACC)
Florida State is not entering the tournament on a good note. As the three seed in the ACC Tournament they fell to a much weaker team in North Carolina State. There's no real leader on this squad and their late season collapse does not bode well for their postseason hopes. They don't excel at any facet of the game and Solomon Alabi is their leading scorer with just 11.6 points. They're a young team with lots of potential to blossom but they still need another year or two to achieve that level of play. The Seminoles have played some quality schools (Florida and Ohio State ) in the early part of the season but fell in both of those matchups. If Florida State can squeak out a win in the opening round against Gonzaga it will be a quick exit against a tough Syracuse squad in the Round 2. Next season will be the one that the Seminoles fans should get excited about
10. Florida Gators (21-12, SEC)
Wowsers, a team many pegged to be on the bubble was rewarded with a relatively high seed for an a-large team. You can debate the Gators merit all you want; they come in to the Dance having won just once in their last five games. Talent isn't a question here as all five starters score in double-figures. Guards Kenny Boynton, Jr. and Erving Walker can be as hot as any other backcourt duo, while Chandler Parsons, Alex Tyus and Vernon Macklin present a formidable front court. As mentioned above, first round opponent BYU has had its share of struggles in the Dance, and this game will come down to the Cougars' ability to knock down outside shots versus the Gators' ability to control the glass, and force the tempo to exploit their athleticism. Quite simply, Florida is struggling, and their chances of escaping the first weekend are slim. Their chances of escaping the opening round aren't much higher. This isn't a team to bet the house on. Of course, we have seen teams who continue to hear how they don't belong show why they do. Head coach Billy Donovan knows a thing or two about Tournament success, but don't expect his resume to grow this year.
11. Minnesota Golden Gophers (21-12, Big 10)
The Gophers used a run to the finals of the Big Ten Tournament to become one of the final at-large teams in the field. Overall, they had six wins over tournament teams, but half of their losses came to squads that didn't even make the Big Dance. Minnesota has persevered through a number of strange off-court issues, though, and their biggest strength is depth. Tubby Smith has 10 players who average at least nine minutes. Their round one matchup with Xavier will test their defense, and they'll need to rebound from being dismantled by Ohio State in the Big Ten Tournament Championship.
12. UTEP Miners (26-6, Conference USA)
This seeding may be a strong indicator of the fact that the committee does not look at the last 12 games anymore. The Miners blasted through the Conference USA schedule and won 16 straight games before falling to Houston in the tournament final. The Miners non-conference resume was not particularly strong with their only Tier 1 win being over Oklahoma. They lost to Ole Miss, Texas Tech, and BYU. Nevertheless, UTEP has a balanced squad. Randy Culpepper is the designated scorer and averaged 18 points. The Miners do have a lot of size that could bother Butler. The frontcourt of Derrick Caracter, Jeremy Williams, and Arnett Moultrie may cause problems for the Bulldogs, who probably wish they were matched up against one of the other 12 seeds.
13. Murray State Racers (30-4, Ohio Valley)
If like your roster balanced and your team to win a lot, you might take a liking to the Murray State Racers. The team blitzed the Ohio Valley with a 17-1 record before knocking off Eastern Illinois and Morehead State to claim the OVC championship. The Racers have six players that average between 9.5 and 10.6 points. Center Tony Easley provides 2.8 blocks to go along with his 10.8 points. Despite the balance in both front and back courts, the Racers will have a hard time matching up against Vanderbilt which has both size and athleticism to avoid another first round ouster. The Racers may have to come up with a junk offense or defense to gimmick their way to a win.
14. Oakland Golden Grizzlies (26-8, Summit)
The Grizzlies dominated the Summit league and finished at 17-1 in conference play thanks in large part to the play of a trio of talented players. 6-foot-11 senior Keith Benson is a double-double machine, Johnathan Jones runs the offense to perfection, and Derick Nelson shook off a broken nose in the Summit League Tournament to score a career-high 36 points in the finals against IUPUI. Throw in a fourth double-digit scorer and you have a team that could make noise in the tournament, although their first round matchup with Pittsburgh isn't a particularly good one for the Grizzlies. Oakland played a tough non-conference schedule with roadtrips to Wisconsin, Kansas, Memphis, Michigan State, and Syracuse. While they didn't win any of those games (and most of them weren't close), that experience guarantees they won't be in awe of the Panthers.
15. North Texas Mean Green (24-8, Sun Belt)
The Mean Green are making just their third tournament appearance in school history and second since 1987. They rolled through the second half of the season and won 11 straight games including holding up to their seed in the Sun Belt tournament. While guards Josh White (14.9 points) and Tristan Thompson (14.1 points) led the team in scoring, it was double-double machine George Udufuwa who provided the spark for the second half run. North Texas is matched up against Kansas State who has advantages in every aspect of the game. The Mean Green will need to make all of their three-pointers and have Odufuwa battle against the Wildcat bigs to a standstill.
16. Vermont Catamounts (25-9, America East)
For fantasy hounds, Vermont has been a known quantity for a few years because of the presence of Marqus Blakely. The burly 6-foot-5 senior has been a double-double machine for the last three years and makes fantasy owners that much more happier by adding a bushel full of steals and blocks. Vermont also has former-Michigan State guard Maurice Joseph who averaged 14.1 points in his senior season. So, the Catamounts have a pair of senior leaders who provide big numbers. They still won't have the juice to knock off Syracuse with or without Arinze Onuaku.
EAST
1. Kentucky Wildcats (32-2, SEC)
The number two national seed gets rewarded with an interesting draw in the East Region. The Wildcats showed both their desire to win, and their ability to dominate in SEC tournament wins over Mississippi State and Tennessee. Kentucky features its own "Big Three" in freshmen PG John Wall, PF DeMarcus Cousins and junior forward Patrick Patterson. These guys can get up and down the floor, and get to the rim from a variety of angles. But two of these guys are freshmen. Do you want to trust your bracket to rookies? The 'Cats perceived weakness is a lack of outside shooting, but the shot a respectable 34.4% from downtown. That being said, there are some scary matchups with nearly all the 'Cats potential opponents. A second round game against a former top ranked Texas could be the first road bump. And a Sweet 16 matchup against either defensive minded Wisconsin or Temple followed by a showdown against West Virginia - yikes. One game at a time is the cliché, but the path to Indianapolis appears to be anything but smooth.
2. West Virginia Mountaineers (27-6, Big East)
No one is playing better basketball right now than West Virginia. The Mountaineers ended the season by beating Georgetown and Villanova, and then proceeded to knock off Cincinnati, Notre Dame and Georgetown en route to winning the Big East conference tournament title. One thing to notice, though, is that their last four wins were by a combined nine points. Will the luck continue? As long as Da'Sean Butler continues to be the most clutch player in the country (six game-winning shots this season), the Mountaineers will continue to create their own luck. Butler, Devin Ebanks and Kevin Jones form a very good forward trio, posing match-up problems for opponents. However, Daryl Bryant is the lone consistent guard on the team, although Joe Mazzulla is a winner. West Virginia will struggle against athletic teams that pressure the ball - like Missouri in the second round.
3. New Mexico Lobos (29-4, Mountain West)
The Lobos may have cost themselves a two seed by not winning the Mountain West tournament, but they should feel quite comfortable with a three seed, even if they have cross the country. New Mexico is led by swingman Darington Hobson, the Evan Turner of the west. The 6-foot-7 junior averaged 16.2 points, 9.2 rebounds, and 4.6 assists in his first year as a Lobo after spending two years in junior college. Dairese Gary is an attacking point guard and Roman Martinez makes for a nice perimeter option. The Lobos meet the Big Sky representative Montana in the first round, but New Mexico should have little trouble with their western brethren. Marquette makes for a different kind of challenge. The Lobos did not face anyone out of the Big East, but were 3-0 against Tier 1 teams this year. The Mountain West regular season champion should hold up to their seed.
4. Wisconsin Badgers (23-8, Big 10)
Wisconsin's performance this season is just another reminder to never count a Bo Ryan-coached team out. Not much was expected from the Badgers heading into the year, but led by Trevon Hughes and Jon Leuer, they finished just one game back of the Big Ten tri-champs. Had Leuer not missed nine games in the middle of the season with a wrist injury, they may well have been able to win the whole thing. At the very least, it allowed Jordan Taylor and Keaton Nankivil to step up and gain some confidence. Given their strong defense and backcourt depth, Wisconsin has been picked by many experts as a sleeper team to reach the Final Four. The Badgers were 7-5 against tournament teams and face a red-hot Wofford team who has won 13 straight. If they can get past the Terriers, they would face the winner of Temple and Cornell. Since I learned not to count them out, I'll take them to the Sweet Sixteen.
5. Temple Owls (29-5, Atlantic 10)
One of the hottest teams entering the Dance, the Temple Owls have won their last ten games, and 12 of their previous 13. There is nothing sexy about their style, but the Owls are good at what they do. Holding opponents to just 56.3 points per game while allowing teams to shoot just 37.7% from the floor and 28.1% from three-point range, don't watch this team if you crave an exciting offensive tilt. Temple didn't trail in the entire Atlantic Ten Conference tournament, and were only tied twice in the championship game against Richmond. This team is clicking, and look poised for a run. Their first round matchup against Cornell pits the Owls' shooting defense against a team that hits 43.4% from the outside. There is always a 5 vs. 12 upset out there, and you should know how this one will go early depending on the Big Red's ability to hit shots. In a matchup of two teams that probably should be seeded a bit higher, expect Lavoy Allen, Juan Fernandez and Ryan Brooks to exert their will. A potential second round matchup against a similarly defensive team in Wisconsin won't be for the weak.
6. Marquette Golden Eagles (22-11, Big East)
On January 23, Marquette was floundering. The Golden Eagles were 11-8 overall and just 2-5 in the Big East after losing five conference games by a combined 11 points. Their karma turned around, though, as they won nine of their next 10 games to lock up a bid to the NCAA Tournament. On paper, the Golden Eagles aren't overly impressive. Despite that, they play as hard as anyone in the country and thrive in close games. Lazar Hayward was one of the best players in the Big East this season, and Jimmy Butler is a match-up problem. Newcomer Darius Johnson-Odom has come on strong towards the end of the season, becoming a legitimate third option. Marquette is accurate from three-point land, but struggle if their shots aren't falling. They will really have to guard Isaiah Thomas and Quincy Pondexter if they want to knock off Washington in the first round.
7. Clemson Tigers (21-10, ACC)
Clemson was dealt a decent draw in the opening round going up against a Missouri team who is coming off two straight losses. Trevor Booker has had an outstanding season and is a force to be reckoned with in the paint. He poses a match up threat for the Tigers and is going to be extremely hard to contain if he can get thing going early on. Junior guard Demontez Stitt has been streaky at times but really needs to step up big for the tournament. Clemson has enough parts in place that they should make it out of the first round and possibly pull off an upset over the two seed, West Virginia.
8. Texas Longhorns (24-9, Big 12)
Once ranked number one in the country, Texas fell to an eight-seed in the Big Dance due to their freefall during the second half of the season. Texas still has all of the pieces of an unbelievable team, they just need to find an identity … quickly. Swingman Damion James is averaging a double-double (18 pts, 10.4 reb) and led the Big 12 in double-doubles all season. Texas will need more than James' output to make a run in the tournament, most likely from their talented freshmen Avery Bradley, Jordan Hamilton and J'Covan Brown. Up first is Wake Forest, a team with talented guards and a superstar forward. Texas will have its hands full with their first game, and if they win, they get to take on Kentucky. If Texas is going to get their season straightened out, they can do it in a hurry if they can win against Kentucky.
9. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (19-10, ACC)
Wake Forest didn't receive an ideal matchup in the opening round having to go up against the eight seed, Texas. Their late season collapse is troublesome as they lost five of their last six games while falling to Maimi in the ACC Tournament. Sophomore Al-Farouq Aminu is as good as they come and presents a matchup nightmare for opposing teams as evidenced by his 15.7 points, 10.7 rebounds, 1.5 spg, and 1.5 bpg. Texas will look to contain Aminu with Dexter Pittman and expose the weaknesses of the rest of the Wake Forest starting five. If Wake can manage to get past the Longhorns, an unpleasant wakeup call will come in the form of John Wall and the Wildcats in the second round.
10. Missouri Tigers (22-10, Big 12)
Missouri is a team that creates problems for teams that have to prepare for their style on short notice. Missouri's frenetic style of pressure defense, combined with their interchangeable players, could help them to make a run like they did last year, getting to the Elite Eight. Missouri doesn't have a dominant player, any player can step up on any given night. This could pose problems for Clemson, but they will have enough time to prepare. If Missouri does manager to get by Clemson, they would likely face West Virginia. Anything could happen in that game. There's a chance that the Tigers could cause problems for West Virginia, but with the Mountaineers experienced guards, Missouri will need some magic to get through.
11. Washington Huskies (24-9, Pac 10)
The Huskies made a desperate run to win the Pac 10 tournament and secure an automatic bid after being on the bubble the last couple of weeks. They enter NCAA tournament on a seven-game winning streak and winners of 12 of their last 14 games. They are peaking at the right time and much of that has to do with Matthew Bryan-Amaning emerging as a solid third option on offense. They finished first in the conference in points (79.8), point differential (+9.8) and rebounding (38.4). On defense, they can really ratchet up the intensity at times and make life miserable for their opponents with their length. Marquette isn't as bad a matchup as some experts would lead you to believe. The Huskies struggle with plodding tough defensive teams because they aren't a great three-point shooting (32.5%) team and their half court execution can sometimes go awry. If the game gets in the 70's the Huskies can pull the upset. Don't underestimate the fact that the Huskies start out in San Jose which is an easy destination for their fans to get to.
12. Cornell Big Red (27-4, Ivy)
Cornell was one of the most under-seeded teams in the NCAA Tournament, but do get a potentially favorable match-up against Temple. The Big Red had an up-and-down non-conference season, losing to Seton Hall, Syracuse and Kansas (barely), but beating Alabama and St. John's on the road. They ran through the Ivy League, losing only one game, a mind-boggling defeat to Pennsylvania by 15. Cornell has an excellent offensive trio in shooter Ryan Wittman, who has unbelievable range; 7-foot center Jeff Foote, an effective big man who rebounds very well; and guard Louis Dale, an experienced leader who distributes and can score. The Big Red are an outstanding offensive team, ranking one in the country in three-point shooting percentage. However, Temple ranks two in defending the three-pointer. Which one will give?
13. Wofford Terriers (26-8, Southern)
Wofford's outstanding season continues as they've earned their first ever bid to the NCAA Tournament. They achieved the crown of Southern Conference Champions by winning 13 straight games and momentum is definitely on their side. The Terriers (does that strike fear into anyone?) are led by forward Noah Dahlman who has put together 16.8 points and 6.3 rebounds. They'll need all of him and more to have any chance of beating #4 seeded Wisconsin. Stranger things have happened but welcome and goodbye to the sweet little Terriers.
14. Montana Grizzlies (22-9, Big Sky)
The Grizzlies surged into the brackets by overcoming a 22-point second half deficit to take down favorite Weber State in the Big Sky tournament. They finished tied for third place in the regular season and probably don't have the firepower to stay with New Mexico. They do have three things going for them though; (1) They play tough defense only allowing 61.1 points, (2) They are the fifth best three-point shooting team in the country at 40.4%, and (3) guard Anthony Johnson is a master at getting to the foul line. Even with all the positives it will be hard for them to advance if the Lobos can shut down Johnson.
15. Morgan State Golden Bears (27-9, MEAC)
For the second straight year, the Golden Bears owned the MEAC and represent the Tier IV conference in the Big Dance. This year, Morgan State dominated from the get go and provided a 17-1 regular season record before winning the three straight games necessary to win the tournament as well. Coach Todd Bozeman's team is led by Reggie Holmes, who averaged 21.8 points, and forward Kevin Thompson, who provided 12.8 points and 11.8 rebounds. Each might worth a late round pick if you are only expecting decent numbers from a one-game performance. West Virginia simply has too many small forwards for the 15 seed to manage.
No. 16 East Tennessee State Buccaneers (20-14, Atlantic Sun)
One might think that the Bucs finished fifth in the Atlantic Sun and were one of those teams that had a fluky run in the conference tournament to be 16th-seed fodder. Well, they are fodder, but they only finished one game out of a four-way tie for first. On their way to the conference title, they only had to beat one of those four teams. Guard Tommy Hubbard is one of the best rebounding guards in the country (8.3 rebounds to go along with a team-leading 14.1 points), but there's little reason to think ETSU will give Kentucky much of a game.
SOUTH
1. Duke Blue Devils (29-5, ACC)
The Blue Devils have once again established their presence as a perennial powerhouse in college hoops. They're led by the 'big three' in Kyle Singler, Jon Scheyer, and Nolan Smith. The trio is extremely difficult to stop and if you attempt to contain one of them, the other two will make you pay. An added benefit for the Blue Devils this season has been the presence of their big men in Brian Zoubek and the Plumlee brothers (sophomore Miles Plumlee and freshman Mason Plumlee). The lack of size has been Duke's biggest flaw over recent years and they've really been exposed in the paint come tournament time. The 'live or die by the three' mentality is no more, as their depth and range provides that extra boost. Duke was handed a very nice draw after winning the ACC Tournament and achieving a well deserved one seed. They should have no problem in the opening round against the play-in game winner and should roll over Cal or Louisville in the second round. You'd expect Purdue to be sitting there in the Sweet 16 but Duke should be able find a way to win and advance to the Elite 8. The biggest threat to Duke will be #2 seeded Villanova so anything less than a trip to the Elite 8 will be considered a huge disappointment for the Blue Devils.
2. Villanova Wildcats (24-7, Big East)
Despite an awful finish in which Villanova lost five of its last seven games, the Wildcats still received a two seed in the weakest region in the field. Don't dismiss this team, though. Villanova is still a very experienced group that is coming off of a Final Four appearance and has some of the best perimeter talent in the country. On the other hand, this isn't the same team as last year. They don't have Dante Cunningham inside, providing balance for the guards. Villanova is not that effective defending in the half-court, and it commits fouls far too often. Scottie Reynolds is one of the nation's best guards, and Corey Fisher is nearly impossible to stop when driving to the rim. Corey Stokes is efficient on his jumper, and Reggie Redding is a very solid all-around player. Antonio Pena will have to step up down low in the Big Dance. After the first round, the Wildcats could have trouble with either Richmond or Saint Mary's, while 3 seed Baylor is loaded.
3. Baylor Bears (25-7, Big 12)
Two guards lead the Baylor Bears into battle, but that's not where Baylor's strengths end. Baylor has a frontcourt that can compete with most others in the country. The group is led by Ekpe Udoh, a defensive stopper that can rebound and score. Baylor takes on Sam Houston State in the first round. The Bears should not have a lot of trouble with the Bearkats, and will likely take on Notre Dame in the second round. This could be a really good game, but look for Baylor's guards to carry them through the first two rounds of the tournament.
4. Purdue Boilermakers (27-5, Big 10)
Admittedly, the body of work for Purdue without Robbie Hummel is limited, but an 11-point first half against Minnesota in the Big Ten Semifinals is an obvious red flag. In the five games following Hummel's devastating knee injury, the Boilers are 3-2 with all three victories coming over teams seventh or lower in the Big Ten standings. With no other consistent scorers besides the duo of E'Twaun Moore and JaJuan Johnson, Siena will be picked by many experts to upset the Boilers. Even if they get past the Saints, a once-promising season will likely come to an early end.
5. Texas A&M Aggies (23-9, Big 12)
Texas A&M finished the Big 12 regular season tied for second place. The Aggies are a seasoned team that saw the injury to one of its leaders, but was able to play through that and beat Baylor and Texas. The Aggies are led by guard Donald Sloan, who can shoot the lights out and can drive and dish to his big men. Bryan Davis and David Loubeau can also cause problems for smaller opposing frontcourts. Texas A&M takes on Utah State in the first round. Assuming they can get past Utah State, they would likely take on Purdue. With the injury to Robbie Hummel, Purdue could be ripe for upset and the Aggies could move on to the Sweet 16.
6. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (23-11, Big East)
About two weeks ago, Notre Dame was headed to the NIT. Now, however, it is wearing home jerseys in the first round of the NCAA Tournament and is playing some of the best basketball in the country. The Fighting Irish won six in a row, beating the likes of Pittsburgh (twice), Georgetown, Connecticut, Marquette and Seton Hall, before losing late to West Virginia in the semifinals of the Big East tournament. Notre Dame is led by the ultra-productive Luke Harangody, although the Irish went on a winning streak once he got injured. Tim Abromaitis is one of the most improved players in the conference, and Ben Hansbrough can stroke it from the perimeter. Tory Jackson controls tempo and distributes well from the point guard spot. Notre Dame is one of the most efficient offensive teams in the country, and its defense has improved greatly down the stretch. Old Dominion won't be an easy match-up in the first round, though.
7. Richmond Spiders (26-8, Atlantic 10)
The Spiders are in their first NCAA tournament since 2004, but if you are up on your tournament history, you know the Spiders have a "Giant Killer" history. This is a program that is entering unchartered territory. In the past, they've beaten the likes of Syracuse, Indiana and South Carolina while being a double-digit seed. How do the Spiders respond to being a "favorite?" They run a Princeton style offense that relies on motion, cutting and dribble penetration. Atlantic Ten Player of the Year Kevin Anderson excels at all of these, and this is a veteran team that believes in what they are doing, and genuinely believes it can beat anyone. Defensively, the Spiders play a matchup zone, which switches on every screen. It's not something teams see regularly, making game-planning on a short turnaround very difficult. It also forces the generously listed six-foot Anderson under the basket often, and the Spiders were last in the A10 in rebounding margin as a result. The Spiders have won 12 of their last 14. The two losses were by two in overtime at Xavier, and by four in the conference championship to Temple. It won't be easy against St. Mary's, but if the Spiders can escape that contest, they are more than capable of taking out a struggling Villanova team. If you believe they can win in the opening round, feel comfortable penciling this team deep into your bracket.
8. California Golden Bears (23-10, Pac 10)
Don't underestimate the Bears because the Pac 10 was down this year. They finished strong winning nine of their last 10 games prior to losing to Washington in the finals of the conference tournament. They did lose to top ten teams Kansas, Syracuse, Ohio State, and New Mexico but three of those losses occurred when Theo Roberston was out with a foot injury. They start four seniors and have the ability to catch fire in a hurry from the outside. The Bears are a balanced team on offense that had four players score more than 25 points at least once during the season, but there are concerns for this team. They are not big upfront and depth outside the four seniors could be an issue. Of course if the game is close at the end, they have the ultimate closer as Jerome Randle (93.5%) has made 32 straight free throws heading into the tournament. The old saying "live by the jump shot, die by the jump shot" certainly applies here as they could shoot their way to the Sweet 16 or they could go cold against first round opponent Louisville. A possible second-round matchup with Duke would be intriguing.
9. Louisville Cardinals (20-12, Big East)
Outside of two wins over Syracuse, the Cardinals' NCAA Tournament resume was pretty bare. However, none of that matters now, as they are headed to the Big Dance and could make a run to the Sweet Sixteen if they play well. They lost three of five down the stretch, although one of the wins was over Syracuse. The Cardinals are not the up-tempo outfit we are used to seeing from Rick Pitino, but they are efficient offensively and crash the offensive boards. On defense, they're inconsistent and struggle on the boards. Edgar Sosa is the key to this team; when he scores and initiates the offense, the Cardinals are tough to beat. Samardo Samuels can dominate on the interior, and they are plenty of quality role players to fill in the holes. California and its outstanding perimeter group will be tough to beat, though.
10. St. Mary's Gaels (26-5, West Coast)
The Gaels exercised some demons by routing Gonzaga to win the conference's automatic bid and avoided the dreaded bubble. Their style of play is reminiscent of the international game as they overcome their lack of athleticism with offensive efficiency. That probably has a lot to do with the five players that hail from Australia on the roster (three of which are starters). They are led by senior center Omar Samhan who wreaks havoc on the blocks and if teams focus too much on the inside they can shoot the lights out from deep (41.2% which was fourth in the country). This team has the elements to make a run to the Sweet 16 but they didn't get any favors from the committee as their lack of foot speed will be challenged by Richmond and possibly Villanova. Traveling across country to Providence won't help their cause either.
11. Old Dominion Monarchs (26-8, Colonial)
The Colonial Athletic Association was one of the more interesting conferences in the nation. They boasted seven teams with winning records in conference and a true battle royale in the conference tournament. Old Dominion was the last team standing and won the regular season title as well. They won eight of their last nine games (with the lone loss being against Northern Iowa in the Bracket Busters) and have an egalitarian scoring division. Six players averaged 7.1 points or greater with forward Gerald Lee being the only double digit scorer at 14.6 points. Notre Dame and Luke Harangody pose a huge challenge for the Monarchs who were able to beat Georgetown on Dec. 17. In that game, ODU got off to a quick start, which is something they'll need again against the Fighting Irish.
12. Utah State Aggies (27-7, WAC)
Sleeper alert. Utah State was one of the last teams in the field, but they are here for a reason. The Aggies won 17 straight games before losing in the final of the WAC tournament to New Mexico State. They have a signature non-conference win by beating BYU back in December. The Aggies have beat up their opponents by being one of the most efficient offensive clubs in the country. US finished in the top ten in the country in field goal percentage (7th), three-point shooting (t-2nd), free throw shooting (7th), assists (t-5th), fewest turnovers (6th) and assist to turnover margin (1st). So yeah, they are skilled. The team relies on ball movement and good shot selection to execute. They have five players that average between 13.7 and 8.3 points. No one on the team takes over 9.5 shots per game. Their lack of size could be an issue versus Texas A&M, but you know Utah State won't beat themselves. This is a decent matchup as Texas A&M finished last in the Big 12 in three-point percentage so they can steal some points by hitting a bunch of threes. The first round game is in Spokane, WA which should be a nice draw for them. If they take care of their defensive backboard they could be wearing the glass slipper and taking the nation by storm next week.
13. Siena Saints (27-6, MAAC)
Fool me once, shame on you; but fool me three times in a row and I'll be a Saint. For the third consecutive year, the Saints will be a trendy pick to pull a first round upset as they play the Hummel-less Boilermakers in the first round. After beating Vanderbilt and Villanova in the previous two years, will Siena think twice about not upsetting a team that starts with "V?" Probably not. The Saints ran through the MAAC conference with just one loss and much like the past few seasons have a lot of talent. Alex Franklin and Ryan Rossiter are an impressive frontcourt that could punish Purdue and the backcourt includes Edwin Ubiles and Ronald Moore, the nation's leading assist maker. This matchup almost seems too good to be true, but don't deny the Saints their very nice chance to win.
14. Sam Houston State Bearkats (25-7, Southland)
The Bearkats arrive in the tournament as the Southland regular season and tournament champions. During the season, they won the league by three games and both conference losses came in overtime on the road. SHSU can be a scrappy team, and it showed in their conference play. The Bearkats are led by forward Gilberto Clavell who is averaging 16.9 points and 6.3 rebounds. He will have his hands full, as will the entire Bearkats team, with Baylor's big men. The Bearkats will need good perimeter defense to stop the 3 point shooting of Baylor as well. If they can find a way to beat Baylor, they will likely take on Notre Dame and their formidable big man.
15. Robert Morris Colonials (23-11, Northeast)
Robert Morris and Quinnipiac tied for the regular season championship in the NEC and had an epic battle in the tournament final. Some people wouldn't consider a 52-50 defensive skirmish as an epic, but it goes without saying that RMU earned their title and their second straight appearance in the NCAA tournament. Freshman Karon Robinson led the team in scoring at 13.4 points and 2.4 threes, while forward Ron Robinson provided 9.9 points and 5.5 rebounds. All of this is to say that the Colonial don't have much of chance of beating Villanova and their waves of guards.
16. (Play-in) Arkansas Pine Bluff Golden Lions (17-15, SWAC)/Winthrop Tigers (19-13, Big South)
The Golden Lions were 14-4 in the SWAC which was good for second place. They were lucky enough not to have to face Jackson State for a third because the Tigers beat them soundly in both regular season meetings and were 17-1 in conference. Tarrance Calvin is a multi-talented guard and Lebaron Weathers anchors the post. Winthrop, which was the the third seed, in the Big South was not so lucky and beat the top two seeds, Coastal Carolina and Radford, on their way to the Big Dance. Like Pine-Bluff, they don't have many big time scorers and were led by Reggie Middleton who provided 10.3 points. Neither team should be able to stay in the first half of the game against Duke, especially after flying in from Dayton.
Contributions from Andy Bottoms, Asa Tysseling, Chris Bennett, Jeff Borzello, Mike Shepherd, Perry Missner, and Tyler Holmes