What’s at stake as the Southeastern Conference Tournament moves to a new location in the Music City this weekend? Kentucky has wrapped up a #1 seed regardless of what happens in Nashville. Vanderbilt and Tennessee are safely into the Dance. Is there anything else to see here?
The SEC is too talented, and too deep to only send three teams into the NCAA Tournament. But the next wave of teams probably needs a win or two to feel comfortable Sunday. Florida, Ole Miss and Mississippi State have RPIs in the 50-60 range, and that alone just isn’t going to get it done. This tournament also has a history of producing some improbable runs (cue the UGA barks from Athens and think to 2008 for the most recent.) So while on paper this may appear to be Kentucky and everyone else, there is a decent amount at stake for the other programs. The reason so many teams are NCAA question marks is because they’ve been beating up on each other all season. If that continues this weekend, who knows who will still be standing Sunday afternoon. And that unpredictability pared with a few teams’ desperation should equal an exciting tournament!
Thursday, March 11
G1 – South Carolina vs. Alabama – 1:00
G2 – LSU vs. Tennessee – 3:15
G3 – Auburn vs. Florida – 7:30
G4 – Georgia vs. Arkansas – 9:45
Friday, March 12
G5 – #1 Kentucky vs. South Carolina/Alabama winner – 1:00
G6 – #4 Ole Miss vs. LSU/Tennessee – 3:15
G7 – #2 Mississippi State vs. Auburn/Florida winner – 7:30
G8 – #3 Vanderbilt vs. Georgia/Arkansas winner – 9:45
Saturday, March 13
G9 – Game 5 winner vs. Game 6 winner – 1:00
G10 – Game 7 winner vs. Game 8 winner – 3:15
Sunday, March 14
Southeastern Conference Championship Game – 1:00
Sleeper – South Carolina Gamecocks (15-15, 6-10)
The easy choice here is Tennessee. And I’m going to go ahead and say it – Tennessee beats LSU with ease, and Ole Miss as well, and plays the winner of Kentucky-South Carolina/Alabama. The Vols can win that game and march in to the final just as easily. In fact, if I’m a betting man, the only team I’m betting on other than Kentucky is Tennessee. For me, the definition of a sleeper is someone that has to win four games in four days. But, I’m sorry; I can’t label a top 15 team like the Volunteers a “sleeper.”
So, let me be a homer for a minute. Yes, I graduated from South Carolina, sue me. The Gamecocks enter the tournament off of a win at Vanderbilt, which was their first win in their last seven tries. They’ve been ice cold and playing with a severe lack of confidence. So why are they a sleeper? We’ll start with
Devan Downey. This is the fan in me saying this, but his scoring potential reminds me of Randolph Childress, and the run he took the Demon Deacons on in the ACC years ago. Secondly, South Carolina owns a win over Kentucky, and challenged the ‘Cats for 35 minutes in Lexington before wilting late. Finally, the Gamecocks have not been strangers to making runs in the SEC tournament. At 15-15, Downey needs at least one win if he wants to extend his career (NIT style.) The senior knows what’s at stake, and I expect him to return to his January form this week in Nashville.
Bust – Ole Miss Rebels (21-9, 9-7)
It’s hard for me to write disparaging things about the Rebels. I’ve been high on the all season, I’m completely infatuated with their young talent, and without a doubt, I think they are a top 20 team for next season. But that is next season, and this year, it’s just a bad draw for the Rebs.
For me, a sleeper has to be capable of winning their first game, springing an upset and catching fire by game three and four. A bust is either a 38 DD, or a team with a bye that loses their only game. Chris Warren seems to have regained his scoring prowess, but sophomore Terrico White has not had a great final month to the season. The Rebels are a year away, and while they can match up with the Vols (who will not have a problem with LSU, book it) the best case scenario for Ole Miss is a loss in the semi-finals to Kentucky. More likely, they bow out immediately and cross their fingers the selection committee comes calling Sunday.
Players to watch
I think I’m obligated to include Wall here, despite his inability to win SEC Freshman of the Year! By now, most of us know the drill with Wall. But now is his time to shine. It’s crunch time for the rookie, and after this weekend, every game could be his last. There have been lots of comparisons of Wall and Derrick Rose. Rose won the CUSA Tournament title, and led the Tigers to the NCAA Championship Game. Now, it’s Wall’s turn. This weekend in Nashville, we get our first glimpse at just how much pressure Wall feels, how he deals with it, and if he truly is capable of putting a team on his shoulders and carrying them to the promise land.
I refrained from labeling the Vols a sleeper above. But they are good enough they deserve some ink, and maybe we’ll use a reasonable synonym when labeling Prince a wildcard. 1
st team All-SEC forward
Wayne Chism (yes, you read that right, 12.4 points and 6.8 rebounds equals first team all conference) gets most of the national attention (obviously.)
Scotty Hopson is slowly growing in to his NBA potential. But I think Prince is the ultimate toss up in this tournament. He is capable of helping the team in all ways, whether it’s a 22 point outing, or an eight rebound game, or setting up his teammates eight times, if Prince can find any semblance of consistency, the Vols could be an incredibly dangerous team, this week and next. The good news for the UT – this has been a team effort this season, and if Prince falls on his face in Nashville, they should remain competitive. But in Tennessee’s last five wins, Prince has averaged 14.6 points and 6.0 boards. Their one loss during this six game stretch – Prince had three points and three boards. We’ll have a good idea about Tennessee’s chances in this tournament by checking Prince’s lines.
Here is another wildcard. The newly anointed SEC Six-Man of the Year, the rookie Jenkins seems to have earned his playing time as the season progressed. For the year, Jenkins averaged 22.6 minutes, but has seen his time increase to 29.5 minutes over Vandy’s final four contests. An all around fantasy game is probably a few seasons away, but Jenkins is shooting an insane 46.7% from behind the line. On a team that has four double-figure scorers, Jenkins offers the greatest chance for a scoring eruption.
Jeff Taylor is going to slash, A.J. Ogilvy will hit some free throws, Jermaine Beal will do a little of everything, but it is Taylor who could steal the show in Nashville.
As much as I wanted to omit Downey, it’s just not possible. In a conference that has terrific players, Downey is the one player in the league capable of shouldering the load for four straight days and willing his team to victory. CFHinsiders’ player of the month for January, Downey has cooled off recently, but is still the most dynamic scorer in the league. The Gamecocks have been using a little more youth lately with
Ramon Galloway and
Lakeem Jackson, and the normally defensive
Sam Muldrow has shown signs of offensive potential. Downey is going to drop at least 25 each outing, the question is just how many does he get? If he can get some help, he has a chance to put up some awfully gaudy numbers.
Varnado makes this list simply because of his game changing shot blocking abilities. Everyone else on this list is capable of taking over a game, and shouldering the scoring load. And while Varnado will get his buckets, this human eraser will defensively alter a game in Tennessee this weekend. The SEC’s all-time blocks leader, Varnado averaged 4.8 blocks each time out this season. If you don't find that impressive, think about this: Varnado averages a block every 6.58 minutes! The Bulldogs are coming in to the tournament on a two game losing streak, but I expect to see some leadership from Varnado.
Barry Stewart,
Dee Bost and
Ravern Johnson are more than capable of putting the ball in the hoop. Add in Varnado’s double-double averages and shot swatting, and this team is dangerous. At least on paper!
I’m not making picks here, but a Kentucky-Tennessee, Mississippi State-Vanderbilt semi-final Saturday sure would be fun to watch.