The 18-game conference slate was not enough to crown a single champ for the Big Ten, and instead the trio of Ohio State, Purdue, and Michigan State shared the regular season title. This week's conference tournament may help to settle that argument, but that's about all they'll be playing for since the championship game's time slot late Sunday afternoon doesn't allow for many seeding implications to be at stake. At this point, the tri-champs and Wisconsin are tournament locks, while Illinois sits firmly on the bubble. A win in their opening game against the Badgers would be enough to get them in, but a loss would leave them with a 18-14 record, a middling RPI, and ugly losses to Bradley, Georgia, and Utah. Anyone outside of that quintet would need to run the table to make the Big Dance, and given the overall inconsistency the bottom six teams have displayed, such a run seems improbable.
Schedule (All times EST)
Thursday, March 11
Game 1 : #8 Michigan Wolverines (14-16, 7-11) vs. #9 Iowa Hawkeyes (10-21, 4-14) - 2:30 PM (ESPN2)
Game 2: #7 Northwestern Wildcats (19-12, 7-11) vs. #10 Indiana Hoosiers (10-20, 4-14) - 5:00 PM (ESPN2)
Game 3: #6 Minnesota Golden Gophers (18-12, 9-9) vs. #11 Penn State Nittany Lions (11-19, 3-15) - 7:30 PM (BTN)
Friday, March 12
Game 4: #1 Ohio State Buckeyes (24-7, 14-4) vs. Game 1 Winner - 12:00 PM (ESPN)
Game 5: #4 Wisconsin Badgers (23-7, 13-5) vs. #5 Illinois Fighting Illini (18-13, 10-8) - 2:30 PM (ESPN)
Game 6: #2 Purdue Boilermakers (26-4, 14-4) vs. Game 2 Winner - 6:30 PM (BTN)
Game 7: #3 Michigan State Spartans (24-7, 14-4) vs. Game 3 Winner - 9:00 PM (BTN)
Saturday, March 13
Game 8: Game 4 Winner vs. Game 5 Winner - 1:40 PM (CBS)
Game 9: Game 6 Winner vs. Game 7 Winner - 4:05 PM (CBS)
Sunday, March 14
Championship: Game 8 Winner vs. Game 9 Winner - 3:30 PM (CBS)
Sleeper: Minnesota Golden Gophers - I'll preface this by saying I wouldn't be shocked to see the Gophers fall to Penn State in the first round, but with the top four teams within one game of each other in league play, defining a sleeper proved rather difficult. Still, Minnesota has survived a strange season full of off-court issues, and at various times, they have looked the part of a tournament-caliber team. They beat Butler in non-conference play, and they've acquitted themselves well against the Big Ten's best. The Gophers knocked off Ohio State (with
Evan Turner healthy) and Wisconsin at home and staged a comeback to win at Illinois. They also suffered one-point home losses to Michigan State and Purdue, so they know they can play with the higher-seeded squads and ultimately have nothing to lose. The other thing Minnesota has going for it is depth. Tubby Smith has nine players averaging at least 11 minutes, which will prove critical if the Gophers want to win four games in four days.
Bust: Purdue Boilermakers - The Boilers managed to hang on for a share of the conference title after losing
Robbie Hummel against Minnesota, but it's fair to say they enter post-season play with plenty of question marks. They closed out the regular season with a narrow win at last-place Penn State, making them look vulnerable entering the Big Ten Tournament. Purdue should be able to advance to the semi-finals over either Indiana or Northwestern, but Michigan State would likely await them there. When they faced the Spartans without Hummel on February 28, MSU outrebounded them 44-16. That is not a typo. 44-16. With Hummel out, the Boilers are incredibly thin inside with the exception of
JaJuan Johnson, so a potential matchup with a strong rebounding team like Michigan State could spell doom.
Keaton Grant and
Chris Kramer have shown some ability to score, but Purdue will be forced to rely heavily on
E'Twaun Moore and
JaJuan Johnson. While they're two of the best in the league, I don't see that as the formula for a conference tournament championship.
Players to Watch
William Buford, G, Ohio State - Lost amidst the wonder that is
Evan Turner, Buford turned in a tremendous sophomore season. While
David Lighty and
Jon Diebler have been relatively inconsistent, the Buckeyes have been able to count on solid contributions from Buford night in and night out. He started off the season well enough but really took flight after Turner injured his back against Eastern Michigan. Starting with that game, Buford has averaged 15.4 points, 6.1 rebounds, 3.5 assists, and 1.0 steals in 24 games. He's shooting 81.4 percent from the free throw line and 38.7 percent from beyond the arc while logging 35.3 minutes per contest. Buford has even posted three double-doubles during that span, and his play alongside "The Villain" will make the Buckeyes a tough out in Indianapolis this weekend.
Mike Davis, F, Illinois - Much like the Illini, Davis' play has been enigmatic this season. He posted eight double-doubles in the first 14 games and entered Big Ten play averaging 12.9 points and 10.4 rebounds. He proceeded to score a total of 10 points in the next three games against the league's worst teams and fell into a slump that eventually got him benched. Over a 12-game stretch, Davis' averages fell to 7.1 points and 6.1 rebounds with just one double-double. With the Illini fading down the stretch, he bounced back with three straight double-doubles and missed a fourth by just one point. They enter the tournament needing a win to cement their position in the Big Dance, and Davis' play will be a big key to deciding their fate.
JaJuan Johnson, C, Purdue - During Purdue's three-game losing streak in the middle of the season, Johnson scored just 18 total points. I'm not sure exactly what was said to the 6-foot-10 junior after that stretch, but whatever it was should be bottled up and sold. In the 13 games since, Johnson has scored at least 11 points in 12 of them, scored at least 20 points six times, and posted four double-doubles. Overall, he's averaged 17.1 points, 7.7 boards, and 1.9 blocks during that span. Johnson is getting to the free throw line 7.6 times per game and has made nearly 75 percent of his freebies. With
Robbie Hummel out, Johnson has become the lone inside presence for Purdue both in terms of scoring and on the glass. Generally speaking, he's responded well and has managed to stay out of foul trouble most of the season. If the Boilers want to prove they can still make a Final Four run without Hummel, Johnson will need to have a huge showing in the Big Ten Tournament.
Jon Leuer, F, Wisconsin - After missing nine games with a wrist injury, Leuer struggled in his return against Minnesota on February 18, scoring just four points and hitting 2 of 12 from the field. Any fears have subsequently been quieted, as Leuer has increased his scoring in each of the four games since, culminating in a 20-point effort against Illinois in the regular season finale. His play will dictate how far the Badgers can go in the Big Ten Tournament as well as the Big Dance. While they have a trio of talented guards in
Trevon Hughes,
Jason Bohannon, and the emerging
Jordan Taylor, Leuer is the only true inside threat with frontcourt mate
Keaton Nankivil preferring to shoot face-up jumpers. Leuer's inside-outside game makes him a tough cover for opposing defenders, and the mid-season rest should leave him fresh down the stretch.
Raymar Morgan, F, Michigan State - Perhaps the reality of his college career coming to a close finally hit Morgan, but whatever the reason, he seems to be peaking at the right time. He had a huge Senior Day with 22 points and 10 boards against Michigan. Over the final five games, he's averaging 14.6 points and 9.2 rebounds with four double-digit scoring games and two double-doubles. Morgan has posted a few other impressive runs this season with one four-game stretch where he posted 16.3 points and 8.0 rebounds and another quartet of games with 16.8 points and 6.8 boards. His recent work on the offensive glass (five offensive boards in three of the last four) has led to a number of easy putbacks and strong fantasy numbers. By some accounts, his time in East Lansing has been disappointing, but Morgan still has the talent to propel the Spartans to another deep tournament run.