In general, I don't think that dynasty teams are overly helpful or hurtful for sports. Whether it is the Yankees or Patriots, the team winning all of the championships consolidates its fanbase at the expense of other teams. However, for Tier 2 and 3 college basketball conferences, a single dominant team can lift the entire conference and provide notoriety. Take the Butler Bulldogs. While they had some losses in a tough non-conference schedule, they ran through the Horizon Conference schedule without blemish. They are assured a spot at the Big Dance, but should they fall in the conference tournament, the Horizon could get two teams in. In the first of our many conference tournament previews, let's take a spin through the Horizon since their tournament starts on Tuesday. Here's the schedule:
First Round - Tuesday, March 2 (at higher seeds)
Game 1 - #10 Youngstown State at #3 Wisconsin-Green Bay
Game 2 - #7 Detroit at #6 Valparaiso
Game 3 - #9 UIC at #4 Wisconsin-Milwaukee
Game 4 - #8 Loyola (IL) at #5 Cleveland State
Second Round - Friday, March 5 (Hinkle Fieldhouse, Indianapolis)
Game 5 - Winner of Game 1 vs. Winner of Game 2
Game 6 - Winner of Game 3 vs. Winner of Game 4
Semifinals - Saturday, March 6 (Hinkle Fieldhouse, Indianapolis)
Game 7 - # 2 Wright State vs. Winner of Game 5
Game 8 - # 1 Butler vs. Winner of Game 6
Championship - Tuesday, March 9 (at higher seed)
Game 9 - Winner of Game 7 vs. Winner of Game 8
Sleeper: Detroit Titans
Detroit may have more talent than any team in the Horizon not named Butler. Yet, the Titans struggled to a 9-9 record that included a brutal stretch in early February. The team dropped five of their first six games in the month before being rescued by a Bracket Buster game. The Titans defeated their MAC rival Eastern Michigan (who won the MAC west) and proceeded to win their last two games on the road. Granted, one game was against Youngstown State and the other was against the struggling Cleveland State Vikings, but a three-game win streak is a three-game win streak. In center Eli Holman, the Titans have an inside presence that few teams in the conference can match. The former Indiana Hoosier had 11.3 points, 8.7 rebounds and 2.6 blocks in his first year with the team. Guard Chase Simon had a great January (20.4 points) before slowing down this month (12.8 points). The team also has two double-digit scorers in the frontcourt with Xavier Keeling and Thomas Kennedy. They split the season series against Valparaiso, but I think they call off the road upset.
Bust: Cleveland State Vikings
Before beating Wright State in the final game of the season, the Vikings had lost four of their previous five games and things seemed off in the city on the shores of Lake Erie. Cleveland State looked like a Horizon contender in early February after they had reeled off six straight wins before facing Butler on Feb. 13. The Bulldogs brought a taste of reality and the Vikings went on their losing streak. The Vikings do have one fantasy player worth looking at in almost any format: guard Norris Cole. The 6-foot-2 junior provided 16.4 points and 4.2 assists. He had 11 20-point games including a 38-point outburst on Nov. 19 against Florida A&M. The last two times he scored 20 or more, the Vikings lost and did not score 60 points as a team.Cole is flanked in the backcourt by Jeremy Montgomery (12.7 points) and Trevon Harmon (11.0 points), but the Vikings have little in the frontcourt, which is why I think they'll get bounced early.
Players to watch:
Cory Johnson, F, Valparaiso Crusaders
The Crusaders could have easily been my bust for the tournament. I didn't feel it was right to line up the bust vs. the sleeper, so I put the similarly slumping Vikings in for the bust. While Valpo has lost four of their last six, but were able to split with Detroit this season, Johnson had his best game in the first meeting of the two teams. The 6-foot-7 junior had a career-high 31 points on Jan. 8, but it wasn't enough to keep the Crusaders from falling by 10 points at Detroit. The teams met again on Feb. 6 and Johnson only scored 12 points, but contributed six rebounds and five assists. The Iowa State transfer also finished the season in style with 28 points and 10 rebounds in a loss to Butler. He has a diverse offensive game and has given the team a nice inside presence to balance the outside shooting of Brandon Wood. Wood, by the way, has slumped badly down the stretch and only score eight points per game over the last three, while hitting just 1 of 13 of his threes. He'll need to help Johnson and the team onward in the tournament.
Shelvin Mack, G Butler Bulldogs
While I have little doubt that Gordon Hayward will be over his back injury by the time the Bulldogs get to play next (Mar. 6), I think the starring role of the team could go to Mack. The 6-foot-3 sophomore has seen his scoring increase marginally to 13.9 points, while his assists and rebounds have decreased a bit to 3.2 and 3.6, respectively. Mack has six 20-point games, including 23 points in the Bracket Buster win over Siena. Mack is hitting 46% of his shots and 37% of his threes. While he has ceded some of point guard responsibilities to Ronald Nored (leading the team at 3.6 assists), Mack is a combo-guard who can do a variety of things to help fantasy teams. With Matt Howard having a horrible year, it would be hard to recommend him. The junior forward had scored 17 points in three of his last four games, but fouls have consistently limited his playing time. Look for Mack to get plenty of shots and to continue Butler's run to a nice seed in the NCAA tournament.
Andy Polka, F, Loyola (IL) Ramblers
Those of my longtime readers know that this has been the year of the Polka for me. In previous years I latched onto Corperryale Manny Harris and Geoff McDermott, but Polka is my guy this year. He is one of my few remaining attachments to Oshkosh, WI and he is a fine passing big man (like McDermott, but to a lesser degree). The senior has had a mixed end to his collegiate career. He has posted steady rebounding numbers and leads the Ramblers at 8.8 per game, but his scoring has not been as consistent. He is converting just 42% of his shots and providing only 6.9 points. Against Cleveland State, Loyola's first round opponent, Polka provided 11 points and 18 rebounds in two games. He averaged three assists and he could be a decent play if Loyola can advance against the struggling Vikings (even though they swept the season series).
Ricky Franklin, G, Wisconsin-Milwaukee Panthers
One might think I'd have more allegiance to one of my alma maters than my hometown, but one would be incorrect. When I attended UWM, the gym was closed and I would have had to taken the bus to see the Panthers (I chose to see the Milwaukee Bucks instead). Nevertheless, I am happy that the team has been given a nice senior season from the 6-foot-1 Franklin. He moved from a supplementary player to the go-to guy and provided a team-high 15.1 points to go along with 4.1 rebounds and 3.9 assists. He finished the season on a strong uptick with 16 points or more in five of his last six games and 18 per game in his last three (including 12 three-pointers). For the first time in his four-year career, Franklin shot better than 40% (43.1 to be exact) and had 10 20-point games. Franklin scored 15 points per game against UIC and had 16 points in the season finale against the Flames.
Robo Kreps, G, UIC Flames
If the Flames are to pull the upset of the fourth-seeded Panthers in the first round of the Horizon tournament, they are going to need a superlative game from Kreps. When the junior guard scored at least 20 points, the Flames were 5-1. They were 3-20 when he failed to score 20 points. Kreps scored 24 and 28 points in the two games prior to the finale and the Flames won both. He came up with 16 against the Panthers in the finale and UIC lost. In the earlier meeting of the two teams, Kreps was held to nine points on 4 of 17 shooting, and if you've been reading you know who won. Kreps struggled with his shot for much of the season and finished with a 35.1% field goal percentage. He was very good from the line (85.1%), but didn't force the action enough to take advantage of his sweet stroke. Look for the Flames to try to feed Kreps early to see if he can get going and steal a game from UWM.