We are rapidly approaching the excitingly depressing time of year known as the end of the college hoops season. Yes, we all know how exciting the Tournament can and will be, but let me be the barer of bad news. Only one team out of 65 will walk away a champion, and all other fans will be left to complain about refs, or your coaches, and what might have been. I think I’m so pessimistic for two reasons. 1) My Heels won’t be dancing at all. My only hope is an NIT bid and a date with my hometown VCU Rams! 2) For the first year in four years, I won’t be attending one session of the NCAA Tournament in person. No locations in the Carolinas mean no road trip for yours truly. So, as far as I’m concerned, lets move on to the 2011 Tournament and it’s return to the lovely Greensboro Coliseum!
So, with that in mind, over the next two weeks, The Frosh Pit will give you a look at a handful of 18 and 19 year olds who will be departing campuses after one season and follow that up with a look at some highly ranked recruits who have disappointed in their rookie season. I want to preface this by saying this isn’t an early entry piece. While I think most of the guys featured in the week’s column are leaving early, I’m putting them here simply because I might not be able to again in a month! We’ll have lots more during the “off season” with regards to early entrants. This will just be a tease.
Eric Bledsoe, G, Kentucky Wildcats – I’m just going to get this out of the way first. Yes, this is an article about freshmen who might leave early. And yes, I’m writing about a Kentucky Wildcat and no it’s not
John Wall, and it’s not even
DeMarcus Cousins. 1) See the end of the column. 2) I don’t repeat players – and if you think I made it to the end of February without mentioning those two, you should be institutionalized!
Now that we’ve gotten that out of the way, lets look at another ‘Cat that is playing in some incredibly large shadows. Anyone who can watch UK play with an objective eye can see what makes Bledsoe such a commodity. He can shoot it from deep, he can pick a pocket, he can score in bunches and grabs a great deal of boards of a 6-foot-1 guard. We all know
John Wall is in a class by himself, but I would love to simulate a season with Bledsoe running the Kentucky offense, while having a better shooter sitting on the wing replacing Wall. The ‘Cats might not be 26-1, but would you be shocked if they were 23-4 or better?
Anyways, Bledsoe is in an interesting spot with regards to his pro prospects. He has played willingly played second, third or even fourth fiddle this season and still impressed NBA scouts. On the recruiting front, Coach Cal is hot on the trails of super talented guards in Josh Shelby and Brandon Knight. I’d be willing to bet he lands one of those guys, so where does that leave Bledsoe? Either playing on a three year guaranteed contract as a late first rounder, or playing second fiddle to another one-and-done. I’ll take the former.
Xavier Henry, G, Kansas Jayhawks – You can try to argue Bledsoe’s chances here, but I don’t think there is a player in America who can boost their NBA stock more in the last month of the season then Henry. Playing for the #1 team in America, all eyes will be on the Jayhawks as the ides of March roll through. I watched Henry a few times last summer, and was blown away by his frame and scoring ability. So much so that I am shocked at his inconsistency and the back and fourth rumors of “will he or won’t he” that are already circulating. If the last month is any indication however, Henry is ready to fulfill any untapped potential he has. Over his last five games, Henry is dropping 18 points and grabbing five boards. In his last two, he has scored a total of 47 points. Maybe we can say Henry’s up and down first 3.5 months were on purpose and he is saving himself for crunch time. Because he has the look of a player who is peeking. I think I just talked myself in to Henry as an early round Fantasy NCAA Tournament selection and the Jayhawks as my pick to cut down the nets. How original huh? But it’ll probably be the last chance to own Henry as an amateur.
Derrick Favors, F, Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets – As much fun as it is to watch a guard like
John Wall dominate from end to end, I’ll admit I love watching the big guys knock each other out of the way, way more. Anyone who has seen Favors knows he is a man-child. A rock solid 6-foot-10, 246 pounds, the hometown hero has had a surprisingly unspectacular season. A top five recruit should average more than 11.5 points and 8.5 rebounds. Sorry if I’m asking for too much. I also promise I started writing this blip before
reading this. So at the risk of being unoriginal, I encourage you to read the linked AJC article if you are interested in Favors, or own him. It’s still really hard to envision a potential top five pick staying in school. Maybe Favors is still more potential than substance. But I don’t think he has as much bust potential as most 19 year olds, and I’ll admit I’m selfish. UNC can’t guard him right now, and my NBA Dynasty team has been rebuilding for two years now, and is all guards. I want Favors on my team, and this is the last season I plan on having a top four pick. So please, listen to this expert, depart the ATL!
Lance Stephenson, G, Cincinnati Bearcats – I’ll be the first to admit I haven’t seen a lot of Stephenson on the court this season. I also haven’t seen a lot of Stephenson in the headlines, so pardon me for a minor lack of interest. I think most of us are familiar with Stephenson’s background. He was a late signee with the Bearcats out of Brooklyn, NY, has had some off the court issues and eligibility questions, and probably stepped on campus simply because David Stern made him. It’s been an inconsistent season for “Born Ready” which, to be fair, hasn’t been all that bad. His season averages sit at 11.2 points, 4.8 rebounds and 2.3 assists. Stephenson seems to have hit rock bottom lately however, scoring just six total points in his last two games, while only seeing 11 minutes last time out against Marquette. This appears to be a case of a solid freshman who thought a little highly of himself, and maybe had been told how great he was a few too many times. There is a lot to like about a 6-foot-5, 210 two-guard. It’s highly unlikely Stephenson remains in school (based solely on my personal opinion he isn’t interested in school) so it will be interesting to see if an NBA team falls in love with him this summer. I’m rooting for him to prove me wrong, spend the summer getting better and dominate the Big East in 2011. I just don’t see it happening.
Avery Bradley, G, Texas Longhorns - In writing this article, I had a clear vision of what I wanted to convey. I’ve looked through stats, I’ve tried to spin numbers, and I’m really surprised by my findings. Every player featured above other than Bledsoe is second on their team in scoring. That is darn impressive for a rookie. But none of these guys are averaging 14 points! Maybe I just have a vision in my head that a kid who plays one season should dominate the NCAA before moving on. And maybe I just talked everyone in to staying in school!
Bradley is another fabulous player who has had his ups and downs. Like most guards, Bradley had one of his best games of the year against UNC, so what little game action I’ve seen was impressive. Bradley appears to be a player without a position for the pros however. At 6 foot 3, Bradley needs to play point guard. But I think he is more of a scorer, and that may just leave him searching for a role at the next level. The recent losing streak in Austin may be all it takes to push Bradley out the door.
So there you have it. Five top ranked recruits who are high on potential, and hadn’t found their way into this column yet. If two of these five return to school next season, the first person to email me gets a gift certificate to a restaurant of their choice. And I’m a man of my word – just ask my wife. I promised we’d go to the Maui Invitational in 2008 if Hansbrough, Lawson, Ellington and Green all came back to UNC. They did, and I watch the tournament from a computer at my office! Seriously, did anyone think they were coming back?
Others previously featured in The Frosh Pit who might make the leap, listed in a 30-second guess of likelihood: