Lords of the Big Dance

Andy Bottoms
Commentator
February 14, 2010

Over the course of this series, we've made our way through nearly everyone non-Tier 1 conference.  This week we'll touch on the nearly all of the remaining leagues and also revisiting a couple we've already profiled.  The only one left will be the Atlantic-10, which at this point probably warrants its own column.  I'll try to knock one out sometime between now and Selection Sunday, which is officially less than four weeks away.

Atlantic Sun

Ian Clark, G, Belmont Bruins

The Bruins are locked in a battle for the A-Sun crown with Jacksonville, and Clark, a 6-foot-3 freshman, is a big reason why.  He leads Belmont is scoring with 15.0 points per game thanks is part to 41.3% three-point shooting.  Clark busted out with 35 points in the first two games of the season but was held to single-digits the following four games.  Many freshman would not have been able to respond to such adversity as well as Clark did.  In the last 20 games, he's averaging 16.6 points, including six 20-point efforts and two 31-point games.  Over half of his attempts have come from beyond the arc during that stretch, and he's made 41.5% of them.  Clark has also chipped in 3.4 rebounds, 2.4 assists, and 1.2 steals during his recent hot streak, but his main fantasy value will come from points and three-pointers.  He shoots a solid percentage from the line (78.5 percent to be exact), but he doesn't get to the line much given the proportion of his shots taken from downtown. 

Conference USA

Elliot Williams, G, Memphis Tigers

The circumstances under which Williams transferred to Memphis were less than ideal with his mother battling a serious illness.  However, those circumstances have not bothered the sophomore guard on the court. He has been the go-to guy for the Tigers all season.  He's scored in double figures in 24 of 25 games, including 15 contests with at least 20 points.  During a10-game stretch earlier in the year, Williams had nine 20-point efforts.  On the season, he's averaging 19.5 points, thanks in part to his ability to regularly get to the free throw line.  He averages nearly eight free throw attempts and makes 76.8% of his freebies.  His three-point shooting has picked up lately as well, as he's canned 23 of 50 triples in the last 11 games.  Despite his prolific scoring, Williams also leads the team in assists at 3.9 per game.  Some of that can be overshadowed by his propensity to turn the ball over, but with 23 dimes in the last four games, he's becoming more comfortable as a facilitator.  Throw in 4.2 rebounds and 1.5 steals per game and you have a guy with previous tournament experience and a strong all-around game.  That could spell trouble for Memphis' opponents come March.

Randy Culpepper, G/Derrick Caracter, F, UTEP Miners

At 10-1, the Miners sit alone atop Conference USA thanks to potentially the best inside-outside combo in the league.  Culpepper leads the team in scoring at 17.6 points per game.  He scored in double figures the first 14 games of the year but has since been rather inconsistent.  He's been held to single-digits in four of the last 10, but Culpepper has also had a pair of huge games during that stretch with 39 against Central Florida and 45 against East Carolina.  He knocked down nine three-pointers in each game and has made 37.0% from beyond the arc this season.  Culpepper doesn't do much else from a fantasy standpoint outside of 1.8 steals, but he's the kind of scorer who could go off at any moment.  Caracter sat out the first five games after transferring from Louisville and played just 12 minutes in his first game.  He then proceeded to rip off four straight double-doubles and has averaged 14.9 points and 9.4 boards in his last 17 games.  During that stretch, he has 15 double-digit scoring efforts, 12 games with at least eight rebounds, and seven double-doubles while shooting 57.9 percent from the field.  The Miners appear to be a tournament lock, and thanks to their dynamic duo, they're sure to be a tough out.

Horizon

Gordon Hayward, G/F, Butler Bulldogs

At this point, the Bulldogs are a household name, and Hayward, a talented 6-foot-8 sophomore, leads the team in scoring (16.0) and rebounding (8.3).  He's scored at least 11 points in 23 of 27 games, including seven contests with at least 20 points.  Hayward's minutes per game are nearly identical to his freshman season, but he's managed to up his scoring despite a large drop in three-point shooting from last season's amazing 44.8% mark to 30.5% this year.  He's offset that by getting to the line where he converts at a 84.5% clip, and he already has more attempts than he did all of last season.  Hayward also has nine double-doubles and has at least eight boards in 16 games.  He also regularly chips in about two assists, one steal, and one block each game.  Fellow soph Shelvin Mack averages 13.7 points, 3.4 rebounds, and 3.3 assists, but the key for Butler is the inside play of Matt Howard.  As a sophomore, Howard averaged 14.8 points and 6.8 rebounds but fell into a huge slump earlier this season.  Lately, he's shown signs of a resurgence with seven straight double-digit scoring efforts, culminating in Saturday's 21-point, 13-rebound performance against Cleveland State.

Northeast

Karon Abraham, G, Robert Morris Colonials

At 13-1 in the NEC, the Colonials hold a slim one-game lead over Quinnipiac.  The two meet on February 20 in a game that might decide the league, but for now I'll give the Colonials the nod.  The 5-foot-9 Abraham is the only RMU player averaging in double figures with 12.9 points per game.  He got off to a slow start with just 9.4 points per game over the first nine contests, but his minutes had started to increase even before Jimmy Langhurst was lost for the season to a knee injury.  After that loss, Abraham started seeing even more time, and he's made the most of it.  In the last 18 contests, he's averaging 14.7 points while shooting 43.0 percent from three-point range.  Abraham actually takes about 60 percent of his total shots from beyond the arc, which is good since he shoots better there than he does from two-point range.  From a fantasy standpoint, don't expect much other than points and threes from Abraham, who has grabbed more than three rebounds just four times and has posted more than two assists just twice.

Southwestern Athletic (SWAC)

Garrison Johnson, G, Jackson State Tigers

After a December 22 loss to Wagner, the Tigers were 0-10 and Johnson was coming off of his fourth straight game with eight or fewer points.  I'm not sure what happened between that game and the December 23 tilt with Eastern Washington, but the results speak for themselves.  Jackson State is now 14-1 since then, although most of the wins have come against SWAC competition so take this all with a grain of salt.  Johnson has scored in double-digits in all but one game (nine points vs. Southern), including seven 20-point efforts.  During that stretch, he's averaging 19.3 points while hitting 42 of 101 (41.6 percent) from beyond the arc).  Since he barely shoots better from two-point range, I guess he figures he may as well stay out there.  Johnson is also getting to the line about six times per game and has hit 70.8 percent from the stripe in the last 15 games.  The 6-foot-5 guard has also grabbed 4.8 boards per game during that span, including one double-double.  He'll add about two assists and one steal per contest as well.  After losing senior star Grant Maxey just three minutes into the season's second game, it would have been hard to predict a tournament bid for the Tigers, but thanks to the improved play of Johnson, they look like the favorite to win the SWAC.

Sun Belt

Montarrio Haddock, G/F, Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders

The 6-foot-5 senior's season has been a bit of a roller coaster.  He scored 48 points in the first two games, then proceeded to score fewer than 10 points in five of the next 11 contests.  Haddock then scored 24 points in a January 7 game against Arkansas State to start a streak of 12 straight games in double figures.  During that stretch, he averaged 15.1 points and 6.8 rebounds, including three 20-point games.  That streak was stopped over the weekend when Haddock scored four points in 22 foul-plagued minutes against Houston Baptist.  For the season, he's averaging 13.5 points and 6.0 rebounds while shooting a respectable 48.8 percent from the field, 86.0 percent from the line, and 39.1 percent from three-point range, albeit in just 46 attempts.  MTSU still has work to do in order to win a crowded Sun Belt, but between Haddock, Desmond Yates, and James Washington III, the Blue Raiders have a trio capable of leading them to the title (and probably a 16 seed).

Western Athletic (WAC)

Jared Quayle, G, Utah State Aggies

While junior forward Tai Wesley leads the Aggies in scoring (13.2) and rebounding (6.5), it's Qualye, a 6-foot-1 senior guard, who is the better all-around fantasy option.  He averages 12.1 points, 5.8 rebounds, 4.2 assists, and 1.2 steals while knocking down 43.1 percent of his three-pointers and 90.0 percent from the free throw line.  Because he's such a great facilitator, his scoring can be a bit inconsistent with double-digit scoring in just half of the first 16 games.  In the last 10 contests, though, Quayle has reached double figures in nine of them.  During that stretch, he's averaging 12.8 points and is hitting 45.3 percent from beyond the arc.  Despite his size, he is a consistent contributor on the glass with at least five boards in 20 of 26 games.  Quayle is equally adept with the ball in his hands, tallying at least four assists in 17 games while averaging just 1.8 turnovers.  Solid guard play is crucial to any tournament run, and with Quayle, the Aggies have just that.

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*All statistics through the games of February 15.