By my count, we have profiled 43 fabulous freshmen in this column to date. You know what, strike that. 42 and Tristan Spurlock. But up until now, I’ve done my best to be unbiased (kinda) and reach outside of my comfort zone to find rookies near and far of fantasy relevance.
Well, that stops now. For one week, I’m punting any semblance of fairness and going with what I know. Due to circumstances beyond my control (like my wife’s week long skiing trip next week,) the Frosh Pit will be on a short, two-week hiatus following this article. So, this week, I bring you a look at the future of the greatest rivalry in all of college sports, if not all of sports in general. . . Carolina vs. Dook, er, Duke.
The gloves are set to come off in Chapel Hill again next Wednesday, February 10. Normally, it’s a game I look forward to for months, and don’t usually find myself sitting except during media breaks. We’ll get to my thoughts on the game itself later, but these two schools recruit themselves, and now is the perfect opportunity to look at what’s ahead for this rivalry. According to Rivals.com, North Carolina’s five-man haul in 2009 was ranked fifth heading in to the season, while the Blue Devils’ three-(wo)man class ranked eighth. And while I think it’s fair to say that the 2009-2010 season hasn’t been an overly kind introduction to the collegiate ranks for any frosh in this dual,
Dexter Strickland gets a pass. He has been the best of the eight options, and has already been featured here!
North Carolina Tar Heels
We can start at the top with big
John Henson. He came in to the season as a top five recruit, someone mentioned as a one-and-done type guy. That statement alone should show you what’s wrong with the NBA. Those expectations upon Henson were completely unfair, and so are the frustrations of Tar Heel fans. There isn’t another player in this feature with as much potential. And it’s not close. Henson’s length will allow him to post up, crash the glass and defend on an elite level. Fantasy owners are probably disappointed in the immediate results, but unless he gets some bad advice, Henson will be around for a while. His is incredibly raw offensively, but he’s looked a lot more confident in his last two outings. Patience here will be worth it!
Unlike Henson, I had a chance to see McDonald, and both Wear brothers prior to their journey to the Hill. Each participated in the NBA Top 100 Camp the summer before their senior year, and yours truly was privileged enough to see them, and can comment on their development to date.
McDonald struggled tremendously early, and is far from a finished product. But his confidence has grown by leaps and bounds since the beginning of the season. I haven’t seen UNC in person this year, but McDonald looks like he has grown (literally) by leaps and bounds since the summer of 2008. Right now, on the tube, he looks like a lengthy two guard who is still refining his shot. No one will ever confuse his scoring ability with Rashad McCants, but McDonald isn’t a project offensively.
And then there are twins, David and Travis. Yeah, identical twins suck for the casual fan, and no, I can’t tell them apart. Travis’ playing time has increased dramatically thanks to the injury to
Tyler Zeller, and he has been a solid option minus the usual freshman mistakes. He’s show decent range and aggressiveness on the glass that give reason for optimism. David has seen his minutes diminish as the year has drawn on, but don’t lose faith. He has a little less range, but the same size as his brother. The knock on these two coming in to college was their size and readiness to play. That’s been answered, so now it’s just experience and opportunity.
The Future: Here is where things get tricky for Ole Roy and the Heels. You can’t consider this year’s crop of freshmen and their future without looking at who is coming next season. SF
Harrison Barnes is ranked as high as #1 overall by some recruiting experts, while SG/SF
Reggie Bullock is a top 10-20 player in his own right. PG
Kendall Marshall rounds out the 2010 class, and he is a pure playmaking lefty PG a la Derrick Phelps. The Heels will lose
Deon Thompson to graduation, and it’s anyone’s best guess what happens to
Ed Davis. The immediate opportunity seems to be greater for Henson and the Wears’ as Carolina could see their frontcourt depth deteriorate next season. As bad as things are in Chapel Hill currently, it’s not hard to see Roy loving a younger lineup that exudes athleticism next season. Come the 2011 NCAA tournament, a rotation of
Marshall/Strickland/Drew
Strickland/Bullock
Barnes/Bullock/Graves/Henson
Henson/Zeller/Wear/Wear
Zeller/Wear/Wear
would challenge anyone. Notice the absence of McDonald. Which is not a knock on him at all, rather a statement of how much talent will be at Williams’ disposal next year. Ugh. I’m such a homer. We are 13-8, and I’m telling you that a top 50 recruit from 2009 can’t see minutes next season. Fingers crossed I’m right! But I think the fantasy rankings for UNC’s ’09 class in 2010 and beyond would be Henson, Strickland, T. Wear, D. Wear, McDonald.
Duke
We’ll start with the little used Kelly. He was the one Dukie I got to see at the NBA Top 100 camp, and it was in the middle of his meteoric rise through the recruiting rankings. Kelly wasn’t known amongst the masses of high school “experts” prior to the summer of 2008, but blossomed into a top 40 player on the AAU circuit during that off season. Kelly is listed at 6 foot 10, 220 pounds, but despite his size is more of a face up player (insert typical Duke “big” man joke here.) I was impressed with his aggressiveness while playing against the nation’s high school elite and think he can develop in to a solid option for Duke in time. That time may be two years from now, as Kelly is struggling to get minutes, and struggling with those minutes if and when he receives them. It isn’t remotely fair to compare Kelly to Henson, but their development may mirror each others, and we may not see a finished product for a while.
Duke’s other big (literally) signee was
Mason Plumlee, a 6 foot 10, 230 pounder that had the folks in Durham thinking he was the end to their interior woes. For a variety of reasons, things haven’t gone as planned to date for Plumlee. Things started with a wrist injury that sidelined him for the first six games of the year. With only a month of action under his belt before the ACC season started, Coach K predictably cut his rotation down, and Plumlee is seeing just a shade under 15 minutes of action in league play. It’s easy to see what got fans so excited here. Simply Google “
Mason Plumlee Dunk Contest” and you can’t help but be impressed with the athleticism someone his size possesses. I’ll be honest in saying I haven’t seen much of Plumlee this season. But if an 18-point, seven-board, four-steal outing against Penn (in 21 minutes) are any indication, it is way too early to write him off. It’s also too early to say he’ll break the Duke big man trend, but right now, you have to like his upside. Sidebar – it looks like big brother Miles has
figured out life along Tobacco Road a little quicker than his younger blood. Clearly Miles has spent some time over in Chapel Hill seeing what the Heels have to offer. Sorry, we don't take transfers, but your younger, younger brother (Marshall, 2011 prospect) still has a shot to do the right thing and wear the right shade of blue!
Sorry, I digressed. As Duke went in to the 2009 offseason, they were struck by the unexpected departure of rising soph
Elliot Williams, who transferred to Memphis for family reasons. That left the Devils shockingly thin at the wing. Because I will never praise K for anything, I’m going to assume that this was the idea of the family looking to help the Blue Devils out, but whatever the reasoning, Ill give the program kudos for thinking outside the box.
Andre Dawkins went all out in summer school, and was able to graduate high school a full year early, something I’m not sure has happened before at a program of this stature. Even in college football, where this is becoming commonplace, athletes are only graduating a semester early, and they aren’t playing a full year ahead of schedule. This is something that cannot be overlooked when you see Dawkins – he is supposed to be a senior in high school.
Dawkins career began with a bang, as he scored in double figures in five of his first nine games. He’s seen his playing time dwindle, as most youngsters do in this system, but when you consider his youth and early success, there is a lot to like with your Mr. Dawkins. And you can’t blame all of his recent struggles on the inexperience, as he is playing with a heavy heart following the tragic loss of
his sister. But the fact remains, he is 6 foot 4, has good range and can finish. Lots to like here.
The Future: Again, lets examine what opportunities will become available for these youngsters next season first.
Jon Scheyer and
Lance Thomas are the only seniors who see extended minutes, while you have to wonder if
Kyle Singler sticks around for his final season.
Brian Zoubek will also depart Durham. The 2010 class for Duke currently is three deep, and is highlighted by point guard
Kyrie Irving. You’d be wise to familiarize yourself with that name now. SF/PF
Joshua Hairston will also be enrolling next fall, and you can expect a similar freshman campaign for him as most Duke rookies – decent PT, decent production early followed by less minutes and lots of learning from the sidelines in the ACC. So what does this add up to for the 3 man class of 2009? I think it bodes tremendously well for Plumlee and Dawkins. A
Nolan Smith type leap would be a stretch for Dawkins, but if Singler and Scheyer are both gone, Duke will need a second scoring option immediately. Plumlee is more talented than his older brother, and since the elder has such quality off-court distractions, I’d expect some growth out of Mason next season. He won’t become Christian Laettner, but he won’t be a Zoubek cloned stiff either. Kelly remains the wildcard to me. I think he has enough talent to be a SF in Duke’s rotation. But I also thought he would have been better off going to a school like Davidson (which he considered heavily) because he works best with the ball, and being the focal point of his team’s offense. And don’t forget about Liberty transfer
Seth Curry, who will suit up next season for the Devils, and undoubtedly steal some minutes from these guys.
What I think I’ve talked myself in to here is that this rivalry looks like it will remain strong for the foreseeable future. UNC has depth, Duke has comparable talent at the top of its rotation. Add it up, and it seems to fit both school’s M.O.s. Should be fun to watch, like always.
As for the game. I’ve seen UNC beat Michigan State, play tough at Kentucky and put up a fight against Texas. That feels like it was three years ago. This team has no confidence. I’ve also seen UNC turn the ball over countless times against pressure defenses, not defend the three well, and give up tons of points to opposing guards. Duke seems to fit the bill on all three of those. The flip side – I’ve seen Duke win one real road game all season. My head tells me the Heels have no shot, my heart tells me they have too much pride to roll over. So, the pick:
78-74, Heels.
C'mon, am I really allowed to pick anything else?