The holidays are over. Everyone is fat from stuffing their face and sucking down too much eggnog. And you are probably staring a New Year’s resolution in the face with little motivation. Did I mention that most of the country is currently freezing their keisters off? Ah, what a mood setter! This week’s Frosh Pit takes a look at three young'uns who came out of the gates fast only to start fading as the weeks wore on, and two more who hope 2010 will be better than 2009.
Julysses Nobles, G, Arkansas Razorbacks – Through five games, I’ll admit Nobles had me thinking “Who needs Courtney Fortson?” At least from a fantasy perspective, because the rookie point guard came in and looked like he could be the steal of my ACC/SEC dynasty draft. Averaging 37.6 minutes, Nobles put up 9.6 points, eight assists and 2.8 steals for the Hawgs. Something apparently happened during Thanksgiving break. Beginning November 29th, Nobles’ last nine games have seen his production slip immensely. In that span he has chipped in just three points, 2.2 assists and 0.7 steals while playing a mere 18.6 minutes. Worse yet, Nobles has failed to score in the Razorbacks’ last three games and despite starting all 14 games to date, has seen the bulk of his minutes given to the reinstated Stefan Welsh. As if we needed any more bad news, Arkansas was 2-3 when Nobles was at his best, and 5-4 when he isn’t. Yes, that’s relatively small sampling, but one I’m sure isn’t lost by head coach John Pelphrey. We have yet to learn when, or if, Fortson will be reinstated, but that would be the final nail in Nobles coffin should it happen. Nobles is worth hanging on to in dynasty leagues (maybe I’m just telling myself that) because of Fortson’s volatility, but I’d be shocked to see any performances like we did in the early going.
EDIT: Fortson was reinstated this evening, and Nobles didn’t get off the bench. Nobles value only exists when Fortson isn’t on the team, be it from suspension, graduation and leaving for a pro career. Translation: a couple of years from now.
Trent Lockett, G, Arizona State Sun Devils – It might be reasonable to assume Lockett and Nobles spent the latter part of November together, because whatever was served over Thanksgiving to these two had the identical effect. Through the first five games of Lockett’s career, he averaged 11.6 pints and 6.4 rebounds while playing 25.2 minutes. In his most recent ten outings, those numbers have bottomed out. Lockett has played just 18.1 minutes and contributed a meager 4.7 points and 2.2 boards. He has scored just two points in each of his last three outings while playing six and eight minutes in two of those. For whatever reason, Lockett just hasn’t been the same since a November 25th contest against Duke. And while I am going to blame K’s group of floppers for this fall from fantasy relevance, maybe the issues are a little deeper. Lockett offers little outside of scoring and rebounding, so while his ASU bio suggests Lockett is a gym rat, there is little reason to believe Lockett can crank it up again come conference play.
Ben Simons, F, Drake Bulldogs – When we reach the lower tiered conferences’ freshmen, those playing big minutes early can become even more susceptible to a “Freshman Wall” because their team’s lack of quality depth leaves them with fewer options. Thanksgiving has provided us quite a nice barometer here, so let's take another look at some more splits. Simons came out firing in the early going, averaging 13.0 points and 30.8 minutes in his first five contests, highlighted by a 24-point outing against Iowa State. That dreaded turkey reared its ugly head, and look what happens. In the ten games since, Simons is down to 6.3 points in 21.4 minutes. Unlike Lockett and Nobles, however, Simons has seen a modest uptick in his rebound numbers, albeit ever so slightly – 2.2/game in his first five, 3.2 in his last ten. So, for now, turkey won’t be to blame and we’ll say the rookie is focusing on becoming a more balance threat. The Bulldogs won’t be in the MVC race, so Simons figures to play as much as he can. Hopefully he fights through the wall, and minutes equal production.
Now that I’ve furthered everyone’s depression, why not shift gears? Not all freshmen can live up to their hype immediately, and here are two that are hoping 2010 brings better fortunes to their careers.
Dante Taylor, F, Pittsburgh Panthers – For every John Wall and DeMarcus Cousins, there is a Dante Taylor. At 6-foot-9, 240 lb, the consensus top-30 recruit figured to slide into the Panthers’ lineup and replace DeJuan Blair as seamlessly as possible. Yowsers were the experts wrong as Taylor is averaging 5.9 points and 5.6 boards in just 16.9 minutes. Aside from the preseason accolades, there really isn’t much reason for optimism this year with Taylor. He showed signs of life in a 10-point, eight-rebound effort against Syracuse last week, but followed it up with last night’s seven-point, three-board game against Cincinnati. The Big East isn’t a conference to learn on the fly, thus Taylor’s value appears limited to dynasty leagues now. That being said, I will mention that Taylor is Pitt’s fourth leading rebounder, and the 6-foot-4 Brad Wanamaker and 6-foot-5 Nasir Robinson are second and third. Clearly, the Panther front court needs big bodies, so maybe, just maybe, there is still some hope for Taylor before March. And as a consolation to his owners, at least his struggles mean he won’t be departing the Steel City for a few years. But if we are writing the same sentences about Taylor in January 2011 that we are now, he will be departing fantasy rosters nationwide.
Lakeem Jackson, F, South Carolina Gamecocks – I really just want to reach out and thank Mr. Jackson for making me look like a genius, even if it was just one game. Yes, I went to school at USC, but my loyal readers know my rooting interested are to the north of South Cacalacky (and I don’t mean Clumpson!), so personal biases are out the window! At 6-foot-5, 225 pounds, Jackson may not seem the ideal candidate to take over for Mike Holmes following his dismissal, but don’t let his size fool you as Jackson is clearly not a wing player. My first clue…he has only taken eight three pointers all season, and hasn’t attempted one in the last eight games. My second clue…he is shooting an embarrassingly bad 38% from the foul line; do any wings shoot that poorly? Jackson has actually started all 13 of USC’s games and is averaging 24.3 minutes to date. In his last three outings, that number jumps to 29.3 minutes. Not surprisingly, so does Jackson’s production, which checks in at 13.3 points and 5.3 boards over that span. Jackson has also been learning a few things from teammate Devan Downey as he is averaging 1.8 steals, highlighted by a six-steal effort against Baylor. South Carolina has gone small due to injuries and suspensions, and Jackson’s development will determine what type of season the Gamecocks have. He gets one more chance to prove himself tonight against Longwood before the rigors of conference season come calling. Another solid game tonight and Jackson might just become my favorite player to write about. Let's go!
Edit: Blowouts equal less minutes for your starters! At least that’s the story I’m going with.