Every year fantasy basketball team owners are surprised to find one of their top picks get outperformed by some player that they never heard of before that season. Here are a few players from tier two teams who may step up and be big fantasy contributors, and a few who may fail to live up to their expectations.
Surprises:
Tyler Haws, G, BYU Cougars
He might only be a freshman, but Tyler Haws will help replace the scoring production lost by Lee Cummard. While there are more experienced options like Jackson Emery and Jimmer Fredette to help shoulder the load, Haws is an explosive scorer who can also hit the glass effectively for a 6-foot-4 guard. He will use his 200-pound frame to fight his way to the basket and finish. Haws is a shooter, too. He spent the Cougars first preseason game sitting on the bench, but by the second preseason game he was in the starting lineup and totaled 14 points. Now it might be hard to keep him out of the starting five.
Dante Jackson, G, Xavier Musketeers
Xavier's strength last year was on the wings where B.J. Raymond averaged 14.1 points per game and C.J. Anderson added 9.9 per contest. Somebody is going to have to fill that void and Dante Jackson is a good choice. If Terrell Holloway can hold onto the starting point guard spot, it will allow Jackson to work off the ball and he will get plenty of open looks on a Xavier team that will be just as dangerous as they were last season. Jackson, now a junior, was overshadowed by Raymond and Anderson the last two years, but you can expect that to change during the 2009-2010 season.
Aaron Johnson, G, UAB Blazers
Coach Mike Davis has a young team that is full of scoring potential and it is junior Aaron Johnson who will emerge as the leader on the floor for UAB. Johnson only averaged 3.6 points and 3.6 assists as a part-time starter last season. With six of their top seven scorers gone, Johnson may be asked to carry a bigger scoring load to go along with his passing prowess. Johnson proved he could do more during his freshman campaign when he started 26 games and averaged 5.2 points and ranked sixth in the conference with 4.1 assists. While newcomers like Robert Williams, Dexter Fields and Heath Gamerern adjust to life in Conference USA, it will be Johnson who carries the backcourt.
Adam Templeton, F, Drake Bulldogs
Templeton started for Drake last season, but did not put up eye popping numbers. In fact, his numbers were hardly worth a fantasy look in most leagues. However, that was largely due to the fact that fellow forwards Jonathan Cox and Brent Heemskerk were eating into his minutes and his production. Now Cox and Heemskerek are gone and the frontcourt belongs to the 6-foot-5 Templeton. Certainly the Bulldogs will need to find some bigger guys who can contribute, but Templeton is a capable rebounder and a proven shooter who knocked down 59 three-pointers during his sophomore campaign at UC Irvine. Drake lacks size on their roster this season and Templeton should be able to grab five or six boards per game and could increase his scoring output from 5.5 points per game as a junior to at least eight or nine as a senior.
Chris Turner, G, East Carolina Pirates
East Carolina's top two scorers, guards Sam Hinnant and James Legan, are gone. Point guard Brock Young is a decent scorer, but he needs to find some new guys so he can continue to accrue assists. Jamar Abrams is a pure shooter and will carry some of the load, but keep an eye on sophomore Chris Turner. The 6-foot-5 guard only averaged 3.2 points and 1.9 rebounds as a freshman last year, but he is the only wing on this team who is big enough and strong enough to both hit the outside shot and attack the basket.
Disappointments:
Will Creekmore, C, Missouri State Bears
On paper it looks like Creekmore is poised for a big season. The 6-foot-9 junior tallied 7.7 points and 5.7 rebounds in limited action last year. The problem is that his minutes may be just as limited this time around. Creekmore will likely start at the five spot, but the Bears have more options this season. At 6-foot-10, Isaiah Rhine has more size than Creekmore. Rhine was outmatched as a freshman, but he is up to 240 pounds and he won't be shoved around this season. Dominick Brumfield is back from injury and will be in the mix in the frontcourt and Colorado transfer Caleb Patterson is the tallest player on the roster. Of course, this is all to say nothing of Kyle Weems, who will likely be the team's go-to-guy. Weems is coming off a freshman campaign where he ranked second on the team in both scoring and rebounding averaging 10.2 and 4.9, respectively.
Carlton Fay, F, Southern Illinois Salukis
Fay ranked second on the Salukis with 10.4 points and 4.6 rebounds during the 2008-2009 campaign, but Southern Illinois hopes some other players can step up and live up to their potential. Most notable is Anthony Booker who struggled through his freshman season after having such high hopes. If the 6-foot-8, 230 pounder can start playing like Saluki fans hoped, Fay will feel the effects. A couple other youngsters could eat into Fay's numbers too. Sophomore Nick Evans is still raw, but has a ton of potential and true freshman Gene Teague is a big-bodied center who is ready to contribute. Fay will still start and be a staple in the lineup, but do not expect him to take over all the points and rebounds left behind by Tony Boyle, especially if he remains as inconsistent as he was last season.
Justin Harper, F, Richmond Spiders
Harper stepped up when Richmond needed him to do so. As a sophomore last year he averaged 9.2 points and 4.6 rebounds. With a year of starting experience and few more pounds on his 6-foot-10 frame, one would expect Harper to take a big step forward, but I just don't think it's in the cards. While Harper certainly has the talent to become a better player as an upperclassman, the return of Dan Geriot causes Harper's fantasy value to dip. During the 2007-2008 campaign Geriot led the Spiders with 14.3 points and 5.5 rebounds. Harper did a great job filling in while Geriot missed last year, but this is Geriot's team for one more season.
Tyler Newbold, G, Utah State Aggies
There is no doubt that Newbold is a versatile basketball player who fits very well in Coach Stew Morrill's Utah State program. Newbold was expected to play a bigger role last year, but ended the season averaging just 9.0 points per game. The problem was players like Jared Quayle and Pooh Williams came out of nowhere and proved to be very productive. Making matters worse is junior college transfer Brian Green. Green is expected to provide a spark off the bench, but he could even work his way into the starting lineup. Newbold will a productive player one way or another, but he is turning into a glue guy who will not put up big scoring numbers.
Damian Saunders, F, Duquesne Dukes
Damian Saunders was a fantasy hoopster's dream player last year. He averaged 13.1 points, 7.6 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 2.1 steals and 2.4 blocks per contest. Now those are some great numbers from an underclassman. The 6-foot-7 forward from Duquesne could be poised for a breakout season this year, but his numbers might not be as good for one very important reason … playing time. Saunders averaged 34.6 minutes per game during the 2008-2009 campaign in large part due to a lack of other options. Enter freshman Andre Marhold, the now relatively healthy Rodrigo Peggau, the emerging Oliver Lewinson and Kentucky transfer Morakinyo Williams and suddenly the Dukes will not need Saunders to play 35 minutes per game.